We’re into the penultimate weekend of the 2025-26 college basketball regular season. Let’s dive into the top college basketball best bets today for Sunday, March 1st. It’s a smaller slate of games, but there are still some intriguing matchups with NCAA Tournament implications. Check out the best college basketball picks below as you cash your own bets. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck! 

College Basketball Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/1

Our college basketball best bets today begin with a Big Ten showdown between Michigan State and Indiana. Plus, we break down a MAAC matchup as Merrimack visits Niagara. Check out more college basketball predictions below for other games today, including Purdue vs. Ohio State and Rutgers vs. Maryland. Let’s jump in.  

 

Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction: Sunday, 3/1

Michigan State and Indiana enter this game in very different situations. The Spartans just pulled off a big road win at Purdue on Thursday, and they’re up to 11th in the latest NET rankings. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, have lost 3 straight and are firmly on the bubble of NCAA Tournament bracket projections.

When these teams met in East Lansing back in January, Michigan State took the 81-60 win in blowout fashion. For the rematch, we’re backing Indiana to be much more competitive and possibly pull out the home victory. The Hoosiers should be desperate for a resume-boosting win, and they’re live for the upset as short home underdogs. 

Admittedly, Indiana has underperformed against top competition all season. It’s just 1-8 against teams currently rated in the top 30 at KenPom. However, the majority of those tough matchups have also been on the road. When the Hoosiers last faced an upper-tier opponent at home, they upset Purdue in late January. It’s also worth noting that they boast quality home wins over Wisconsin, UCLA, and Washington. 

Indiana has its back against the wall here amid its losing streak. With an 8-9 conference record and 39th NET ranking, the Hoosiers need a better performance to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. So, let’s count on a motivated and focused effort to get the win (or at least keep it close). 

As for Michigan State, the road win at Purdue is certainly impressive. However, Tom Izzo’s squad could be in for a letdown in a second straight road test. Before beating Purdue, the Spartans previously struggled away from home. They lost by 21 at Wisconsin, got upset at Minnesota, and needed overtime to survive at Rutgers in their three prior road games. Sparty also lost at Nebraska and failed to cover as road favorites at Penn State earlier this season.

Indiana’s offense will need to be at its best. Michigan State boasts the 6th-best defense in the country, per KenPom, while allowing just 66.4 PPG (22nd in Division I). Yet, there’s some upside for the Hoosiers offensively. They rank 28th nationally in effective shooting percentage and 8th in two-point scoring. Plus, the Spartans don’t force many turnovers, ranking 279th in that area. 

On the other end, Michigan State’s offense tends to lean a bit too much on point guard Jeremy Fears at times. The Spartans don’t usually get consistent scoring and playmaking from the supporting cast. Plus, besides being elite at offensive rebounding, Izzo’s team is just average or below that in many other key offensive categories. 

Let’s back Indiana on this Sunday. It’s worth noting that Michigan State is just 1-4 straight up in its last 5 road trips to Bloomington. The Hoosiers have also won and covered 3 of the last 5 meetings with the Spartans. 

  • PICK: Indiana +3.5 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
 

Merrimack vs. Niagara Prediction: Sunday, 3/1

Let’s go off the board a bit for our second CBB pick today. Merrimack has been far-and-away the best team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference this year. The Warriors have already clinched the MAAC regular-season title heading into Sunday’s matchup, which presents a get-right opportunity at Niagara. 

Merrimack just lost at Canisius on Friday, but that’s an outlier result. Before the loss, the Warriors won 8 straight games to lock up the MAAC championship. They’re now 20-10 overall and 16-3 in league play this year. This game against a bad Niagara team presents a chance for them to get back on track ahead of this week’s conference tournament. 

As for Niagara, it’s struggled to an 8-21 overall record and 5-14 in conference play. The Purple Eagles are ranked 342nd in the NET as literally one of the worst teams in the sport. They’re 336th nationally in offensive efficiency and 325th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. 

Merrimack, meanwhile, is 189th in the NET and top 200 in the sport in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. That’s saying something for a MAAC team. The Warriors’ defense has been especially dominant in league play. They lead the conference in defensive turnover rate, effective field goal percentage against, block rate, and steal rate. They’re also allowing just 64.1 PPG to conference opponents. 

It’s hard to see Niagara scoring much in this matchup. The Purple Eagles have been held to 65 points or fewer in 10 of their 19 conference games so far. On the other end, Niagara’s bottom-tier defense could be in trouble. Merrimack is shooting 34.8% from three in league play (2nd in MAAC), while leading the conference in offensive turnover rate and free-throw attempts rate. 

Let’s take Merrimack to cover as the road favorite. The Warriors are 13-4 ATS over their past 17 games, and 10-4 ATS as favorites this season. After not covering back-to-back games, they should respond with a comfortable victory here. Plus, 6 of Merrimack’s last 10 wins have been by double digits. 

  • PICK: Merrimack -8.5 (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/1

  • Purdue vs. Ohio State Under 150.5 Total Points (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Maryland -4.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Charleston vs. UNC Wilmington Over 144.5 Total Points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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