College Basketball Best Bets Today: Kalshi Predictions & Picks (Feb. 14)

The 2025-26 college basketball season is heating up on the exchange, and it’s time to find the value in today’s prediction markets. With the February 14th slate featuring a heavy dose of Top 25 action and high-stakes conference battles, we’re breaking down the best contracts to trade on Kalshi.

Whether you’re taking a position on game winners or margin of victory, here are the top Kalshi predictions for Saturday’s NCAA hoops.

NC State vs. Miami (FL) Prediction: Saturday, 2/14

Market: Will NC State win against Miami (FL)?

Position: Buy YES

NC State and Miami (FL) are coming off polar opposite performances. The Wolfpack are licking their wounds after a 41-point blowout loss to Louisville on Monday, while Miami is riding high after a court-storming home upset over No. 11 UNC.

In prediction markets, this is a textbook "fade the hype, buy the bounce-back." Here is why the "Yes" contract on an NC State victory is the play:

• The Will Wade Effect: NC State is 5-1 following a loss this season. Head coach Will Wade is a staggering 13-2 after a loss over the past three seasons. He knows how to recalibrate a roster after a poor showing.
• Style of Play: Miami relies heavily on interior scoring (1st in the ACC in 2-point point distribution). NC State’s defense is specifically designed to clog the paint and force teams to beat them from the perimeter—a major weakness for a Hurricanes team shooting just 30.3% from deep in conference play.
• Home Court Motivation: After an embarrassing Monday night, expect a focused Wolfpack squad to dominate the perimeter. NC State ranks 7th nationally in three-point shooting (39.5%), and they face a Miami defense that ranks 237th in defending the arc.

Texas Tech vs. Arizona Prediction: Saturday, 2/14

Market: Will No. 1 Arizona win by 10+ points?

Position: Buy YES

College Gameday is in Tucson as No. 1 Arizona (23-1) hosts No. 16 Texas Tech. The Wildcats just suffered their first blemish of the season at Kansas, but history suggests they won't stay down for long.

• Dominant Recovery: Under Tommy Lloyd, the Wildcats are 19-10 Against the Spread (ATS) after a loss. They don’t just win; they tend to vent their frustrations on the next opponent.
• The Paint Gap: Arizona leads the Big 12 in 2-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Texas Tech, while gritty, lacks the frontcourt depth to handle the tandem of Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat.
• Road Woes: Texas Tech is 0-3 SU as an underdog this year and has struggled against elite programs like Purdue and Houston. Expect the McKale Center crowd to fuel a double-digit Wildcat victory.

Kalshi Market Watch: Other Quick Picks

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Trader Note: All market probabilities and contract prices are accurate as of Saturday morning but are subject to volatility as tip-off approaches.