The focus of the Big Ten turns to West Lafayette on Thursday night as two strong teams face off in a game that could significantly affect tournament seeding. Michigan State travels to play Purdue in their only regular-season encounter, and both teams have records of 22-5 overall and 12-4 in the conference.

With Mackey Arena buzzing and Purdue showcasing some of its best basketball in February, aside from a loss to Michigan, this presents a tough challenge for a Michigan State squad that’s had difficulties on the road. So, what do our #13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue picks have in store?

#13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue Predictions for NCAAB on Peacock, 2/26

The Spartans and Boilermakers come into this game with slightly different trends. Michigan State recently secured a hard-fought 66-60 victory over Ohio State, while Purdue dominated Indiana 93-64 in their last game. The Boilermakers shot almost 65% from the field in that match and hit 10-of-18 from three-point range — highlighting the explosiveness of their offense.

Both teams are 12-4 in conference play, but Purdue’s performance at home is particularly impressive – something our #13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue predictions will highlight. Three of their five losses occurred at Mackey Arena, but those were against top-tier teams. In contrast, Michigan State has lost several road games to teams ranked much lower than Purdue.

 

 

 

#13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue Spread Pick: Boilermakers -7.5 (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

At first glance, this number might seem a bit high, especially since both teams have the same records. However, when you look closer, Purdue giving 7.5 points at home makes sense and could even be a steal.

Michigan State has had a tough time scoring on the road this season. The Spartans average 78.4 points per game overall, but their efficiency drops when they play outside of East Lansing. They shoot 46.6% from the field for the season, but that percentage usually decreases away from home.

This is a concern against a Purdue offense that’s one of the most efficient in the nation. The Boilermakers are shooting over 50% from the field and are among the leaders in assists per game (19.7). Their offensive rhythm, driven by excellent ball movement and shot selection, leads to high-quality scoring opportunities both inside and from long range.

Point guard Braden Smith runs the show at a high level, while Fletcher Loyer spreads the floor with his long-range shooting. Inside, Trey Kaufman-Renn brings toughness and rebounding. Purdue doesn’t just score — they do so efficiently and rarely make mistakes, averaging fewer than nine turnovers per game.

This ball security is a significant factor. Michigan State’s defensive strategy focuses on limiting efficient shots. The Spartans give up only 66.1 points per game and keep opponents shooting below 40%. However, Purdue’s offensive flexibility puts that to the test. The Boilermakers can score on the fast break, execute plays in half-court situations, and exploit teams that overcommit on defense.

Another key element is rebounding and second-chance points. Michigan State is a strong rebounding team, averaging over 41 boards per game, but Purdue ranks among the best in the conference for defensive rebounding. If the Spartans can’t create second chances, they’ll need to be efficient with their first shots — which have been inconsistent on the road.

Then there’s the trend for February. Except for a loss to Michigan, Purdue has been impressive this month. The 93-point explosion against Indiana highlighted how dangerous this team can be when they are hitting their shots. At Mackey Arena, that rhythm becomes even more threatening.

Michigan State’s away record shows a different perspective. Out of their four conference losses, three have occurred on the road. Even when the Spartans manage to win away from Breslin, the victories are narrow, and their offense tends to struggle in the later stages.

This doesn’t need to be a blowout to cover -7.5. A controlled win by eight to ten points will suffice. Given the matchup dynamics and the venue, that seems achievable, so that’s what our official #13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue predictions will roll with.

 

 

 

How To Watch #13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue NCAAB on Peacock

  • Date: Thursday, February 26, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, Indiana)
  • TV: NBCSN / Peacock

#13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Following our #13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue predictions for the game this Thursday, we’re excited to present the latest #13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for this thrilling matchup:

  • Money Line (ML): Spartans +260 | Boilermakers -330
  • Spread: Spartans -7.5 (-102) | Boilermakers +7.5 (-122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 140.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

 

 

 

#13 Michigan St. vs. #8 Purdue Injury Report & Latest News

Michigan State Injury Report

  • D. Ugochukwu (G) – Out, Foot
  • K. Glenn (F) – Out, Knee

Purdue Injury Report

  • None

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