Below are game breakdowns and Optimal Lineups for Wednesday’s three-game NHL DFS slate.
As a reminder, it’s generally advisable to play less of your bankroll on smaller slates. It’s also preferable to lean a little more towards GPPs than you normally would.
Minnesota Wild @ Toronto Maple Leafs
The first game of the night is the only one of the three games with an over/under higher than the standard 5.5 goals as this over/under sits at six. The home team is a -140 favorite and thus the Leafs have the highest implied goal total in Vegas.
According to my own little matchup stat, these two teams are the most favorable matchups to opposing skaters, so I’m right in line with Vegas here. Toronto is a good matchup for opposing skaters primarily because their goaltending has been poor. Frederik Andersen has the fifth worst adjusted save percentage among the 39 goalies with 200+ minutes played per Corsica. Minnesota is a good matchup for opposing skaters because they allow the 11th most shot attempts per 60 at even strength, which is the highest rate of shot attempts allowed among teams in action tonight.
The shot volume Minny allows combined with the fact that Toronto ranks ninth in shot attempts per 60 at even strength means who ever starts in net for Minny should see a lot of rubber, which gives them GPP appeal. But like Andersen, Devan Dubnyk (if it is Dubs) is below average in adjusted save percentage, so neither goalie is an option in cash games.
The Leafs have been consistently using the same matchups at home dating back to last year, so we have a good idea of the line matchups tonight. Nazem Kadri’s line always sees opposing top lines at home, so they’ll get Mikko Koivu’s line. Patrick Marleau’s line will get Minny’s second line centered by Eric Staal, and Tyler Bozak’s line will get Minny’s third line.
Minny’s top two lines are tough matchups possession-wise, but the Koivu line is dominant possession-wise, so the Kadri line isn’t an option tonight. Bozak’s line has the best matchup and he and linemate Mitch Marner stay together on the PP, so they’re a good mini-stack option. The Marleau line doesn’t have to be avoided due to matchup, so James van Riemsdyk is in play, especially on DK where he’s priced well. On the blue line, Morgan Rielly plays on a PP unit with Bozak, Marner and JVR, so he could be paired with any of those forwards.
Minnesota doesn’t have much depth in their forward lines, so their top six is all that’s in play. They’ll see Toronto’s top six, which are not imposing possession lines, so either top six line is an option. Both top six lines for Minny stay together on PP units, which makes them stackable. Individually the best play is Eric Staal who leads the team in ixGF/60 (individual expected goals for per 60) and who is priced much better on DK than FD. His linemate Chris Stewart is a nice value option. Jason Zucker rounds out that line, and they could be paired with Matt Dumba who joins them on the PP.
Boston Bruins @ New York Rangers
Boston is simple to discuss right now. They’ve been decimated by injuries lately, and their top line is the only one worth considering. The Bruins have the lowest implied total, so paying up for their top line studs in cash isn’t the greatest idea. You could, however, get some exposure to them in cash with the inexpensive Anders Bjork who skates with the top line at even, or you could go with Danton Heinen who joins them on the top PP unit. The top line could be a contrarian stack option in GPPs given their low implied team total. If stacking B’s, Torey Krug joins Bergeron/Pastrnak/Heinen on the top PP unit.
As for the Rangers, you want to avoid their line that matches up with Boston’s top line. The second line centered by Kevin Hayes has drawn opposing top lines in recent home games, so they’re the line to avoid. The top line of Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich all stay together on the top PP unit, which makes them a solid stack option. Ziba is overpriced on both sites, but you should be able to fit him in today. Kreider is priced about right on both sites, and Buchnevich is a nice value on FD. Kevin Shattenkirk joins that trio on the top PP unit.
Henrik Lundqvist is the only goalie in this game worth considering as Tuukka Rask has the 10th worst adjusted save percentage this season. Lundqvist is a cash option by way of the Rangers being a -135 home favorite. He’ll also work in GPPs given that the Bruins shoot at an above average rate and the Rangers allow shots at an above average rate, so he should have plenty of chances to make saves.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ San Jose Sharks
This is a tricky game to analyze. On one hand, San Jose is terribly un-fantasy friendly as they rank dead last in total goals per game (goals for plus goals against). They’ve allowed the fewest goals in the league and rank only 29th in goals scored. On the other hand, Tampa Bay’s offense is dynamic as they rank second in goals scored. They also have the two best players in hockey so far this season, Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, who have a whopping 48 points between them.
This is a perfect example of why it might be best to lean towards GPPs on short slates. Presumably, Stamkos and Kucherov will be popular tonight given how insanely hot they’ve been and given the relative lack of other options. To that end, there are only two players that will be in action tonight priced above $7,500 on DK and they’re Kuch and Stamkos. There are only four other players priced above $7,000, so people may be drawn to the Tampa duo simply because they’ll have money to burn. But the matchup with San Jose is a bad one and not the kind of matchup I want to risk money on. The idea is to fade Kuch and Stamkos in GPPs, and if they’re quiet tonight, you’ll have a leg up on the field.
All that said, the Stamkos line will draw the best individual matchup against Logan Couture’s line, but it’s the best matchup only relative to San Jose’s other lines. At best it’s an average matchup overall. But it’s not a terrible individual matchup which means one of that dynamic pair can crack your cash lineups. Stamkos is a slightly better value on both sites, but saving money shouldn’t be too much of a concern tonight, so Kucherov is the preferred play.
As mentioned, the Sharks rank 29th in goals scored, so they’re not the greatest option either. And their matchup with Tampa isn’t spectacular as the Bolts have allowed fewer goals than average this season. That said, Logan Couture is an option against the Stamkos line which has scored a ton but hasn’t dominated possession-wise. Joonas Donskoi is also an option as he’s expected to move up to the top line with Kevin Labanc heading back to the AHL. And if you’re looking for somewhere to spend your money, Brent Burns is always a solid option with a high floor. He leads all D-men in shots on goal plus blocked shots, and those kinds of stats are worth more on DK than FD.
The two goalies in this one are the only two in action tonight who have above average adjusted save percentages. Martin Jones is a slight home favorite, so he’s in play in cash games. The Sharks are a good shot suppression team, so he’s not the best GPP option. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a solid GPP option as the Bolts rank mid-pack in shot attempts allowed and the Sharks rank seventh in shot attempts per 60, so he should see plenty of rubber.