Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO August 25
Sean Mitchell brings you all you need for Tuesday's CS:GO DFS ESL One three-match slate with the playbook!
elcome back, everyone! Hopefully you guys all had a great weekend and are ready to get back into some CS:GO DFS! For Tuesday, the ESL One Cologne 2020 Event returns with a three-match slate beginning at 9 AM ET! Let’s dive in!
NiP (Ranked 13th in World) vs NaVi (Ranked 4th in World)
For our first best of three match of the day, we get one out of Group A in the Europe region and it is the lower bracket semi-final match as well between Ninjas in Pajamas and Natus Vincere. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, we see that NaVi is listed as the favorite to win this match at -160 on the money line. NiP were on quite a skid, a four-match skid to be exact, before dealing a 2-1 loss to team BIG, who have also been on a skid themselves lately. NaVi were also dealt a loss, however, it was in the form of a reverse sweep by Complexity but had won their prior four matches straight before the loss. These two squads have faced off in three best of three matches in 2020, with NaVi winning all six maps, resulting in back-to-back-to-back sweeps against NiP. Since we do have six maps this year alone to analyze, let’s take a look at the top performers against each other for these two teams. Plopski has the best stat-line per say for NiP against NaVi over the six-map sample, however, it is in the negative as it sits at -5 K-D diff, 0.96 K-D, and 1.02 Rating. For NaVi, we can assume who is the top player always in S1mple and Electronic, as S1imple sits with a +64 K-D diff, 1.79 K-D, and 1.49 Rating, while Electronic sits at +48 K-D diff, 1.51 K-D, and 1.45 Rating. A value that also stands out in this head-to-head matchup for NaVi is flamie, who sits with the third best numbers at +25 K-D diff, 1.28 K-D, and 1.21 Rating, not to mention this is by far his best numbers against any one team in 2020 so far as well. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two teams include Dust2 for NiP and Vertigo for NaVi. The typical first map choices for these two lately have included Overpass for NiP, and Dust2 for NaVi, which is a ban map. NaVi’s second-most chosen map lately has been Train, and this is a map that they have won five-straight on lately as well in their last eight tries. Interestingly enough, in the last two matches against each other, NaVi has used map strategy and picked Nuke both times with Dust2 banned by NiP. NiP played Mirage last match, and Overpass the match before, and looking back, it was Mirage that they played the closest to NaVi on losing it 16-13. They only put up eight-round wins on overpass the match before. I think we could see the same two maps chosen in their prior match in Nuke and Mirage. So, let’s take a look at the top performers for these two maps lately for these two teams. For NiP on their projected map choice of Mirage (eight map sample) it is Plopski at the top of this one with a 1.25 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 87.2 ADR. Next, it is hampus at 1.12, and nawwk at 1.04 to round it out. For Nuke (seven map sample) it is Nawwk in the lead here with a 1.13 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.10 IMP, and 79.8 ADR. Only one other follows him here and that is Plop at 1.01. For NaVi on their projected map choice of Nuke (11 map sample) no other than S1mple at the top here with a 1.20 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.26 IMP, and 76.2 ADR. Two others also follow here with electronic sitting at 1.15, and flamie at 1.04. For Mirage (eight map sample) S1mple in the lead once again at 1.36 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.54 IMP, and 87.3 ADR. Two again follow here and it is Electronic again next with a 1.19, and Perfercto ends it at 1.01. I think the history is well on NaVi’s side here, as NiP has gotten close on a few maps, just couldn’t string together enough round-wins to close a map on them yet. Probably not the best time to try to fade NaVi after getting shut-out by Complexity either, and usually big wins like NiP had over BIG, tend to be followed by flat spots. I have to side with NaVi here, and I know it will be chalky, but they are the better team. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Plopski – (Best overall stat-line against NaVi, and is typically their carry other than nawwk)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, nawwk, hampus
ANCHOR: S1mple – (Much like ZywOo on Vitality, there will never likely be a chance I pick another capt than S1mple for NaVi)
Top Stacking Options: S1mple, electronic, flamie
Fnatic (Ranked 8th in World) vs Heroic (Ranked 11th in World)
Our second best of three match for this event is one in Group B, and it is the lower bracket semi-final for this group between fnatic and Heroic. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, the books are listing Heroic as the favorite to win this match, and they are listed at -140 on the money line to do so. Fnatic had been on quite a skid before catching a 2-1 winning result against Heretics in their last match. Heroic took a loss at the hands of G2 after taking them the full three-map distance in a 1-2 result, but 2-0 swept FaZe in the match prior to that one. These two squads have played each other twice so far in 2020, and Heroic has been the victor in both best of three matches. In their most recent match, the full three-maps were needed before Heroic escaped with a 2-1 win as they won Inferno 16-13 and Train 16-13 as well, with fnatic only winning on Nuke in OT 19-17. The match before was all Heroic, as they swept fnatic on Nuke and Train by scores of 16-10 on Nuke, and 19-16 on Train. Since we do have five maps to analyze, let’s see who the top players were for these two matches in 2020. For fnatic, interestingly enough JW has the only positive stat-line against Heroic for this span, and he sits with a +9 K-D diff, 1.09 K-D, and 1.05 Rating. For Heroic, niko is the top player with a +24 K-D diff, 1.26 K-D, and 1.16 Rating. cadiaN has the second-best numbers and sits with +16 K-D diff, 1.17 K-D, and 1.14 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two teams include Overpass for Heroic and Vertigo for fnatic. The two first map choices lately have been Nuke for Heroic and Inferno for fnatic. I do believe we see these two maps once again in this match, so let’s see who the top players are for these lately for these two squads. For fnatic on their projected map choice of Inferno (10 map sample) KRIMZ is the top player here lately with a 1.13 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.08 IMP, and 80.3 ADR. Three others also fit the bill here beginning with flusha at 1.05, Brollan at 1.04, and lastly, JW at 1.00. For Nuke (13 map sample) not a single player has been over a 1.0 Rating here over this sample, and JW is the closest at 0.95 Rating. Not a good look for Nuke. For Heroic on their projected map choice of Nuke (10 map sample) niko is the lead guy here for this sample with a 1.33 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.47 IMP, and 92.2 ADR. All other options make the qualifications here as well beginning with cadiaN at 1.17, TeSeS at 1.15, stavn at 1.13, and b0RUP ends it at 1.06. For Inferno (11 map sample) it is niko at the top once again with a 1.22 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 79.9 ADR. All other follow him here as well with stavn at 1.16, TeSeS at 1.11, cadiaN at 1.06, and b0RUP at 1.06 to round it out. I think I have to agree with the books once again here, as Heroic just seems like the better teams and the projected map choices most definitely favor them in this match as well. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (I just couldn’t live with myself going with JW, but he is a value play if you want to go there)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, Brollan, JW/flusha
ANCHOR: niko – (Has dominated the head-to-head matches and leads both projected maps as well)
Top Stacking Options: niko, cadiaN, TeSeS (stavn is in play also)
100 Thieves (Ranked 18th in World) vs FURIA (Ranked 6th in World)
The final match of the day in the ESL One Event should be a good one, as it is a decider match between FURIA and 100 Thieves. The current betting odds are listing FURIA as the largest favorite on the slate at -180 on the money line to win this match. FURIA got back on track in their most recent match beating Gen.G quite easily in a 2-0 sweep, bouncing back nicely after a 0-2 reverse sweep to Chaos. 100 Thieves also were losers to Chaos in their most recent match, losing that match 1-2, and had beat Gen.G the match before it with a 2-1 result. These two teams are also pretty familiar with each other and have played two best of three matches so far in 2020, and both matches went the full distance. FURIA has won both of those matches by the 2-1 result. Since we do have six maps of data, let’s see who the top players were for each team. For 100T, no other than the Savage himself, Justin “jks” Savage that is sitting with the best numbers by quite a bit for 100T at +31 K-D Diff, 1.37 K-D, and 1.25 Rating. For FURIA, KSCERATO is the only player for FURA to have a positive stat-line over this span, and he sits with a +19 K-D diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.18 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Dust2 for FURIA, and Overpass for 100T. Both teams have been selecting Vertigo quite often lately, and FURIA holds the win-rate on this one winning six of their last 10 there, while 100T have only won three of their last six there lately. The next most chosen map will either be Mirage or Inferno. Mirage will be the pick of FURIA if they don’t get Vertigo, while Inferno will likely be chosen by 100T if FURIA gets Vertigo first. This could be a pretty detrimental pick as well, as both of those maps favor the respective teams choosing them pretty heavily. Looking at their prior matches, Inferno and Vertigo were chosen, and 100T smashed FURIA on Inferno as a result 16-4. In the match before that, FURIA had first pick and took Mirage this time, and they smashed 100T on Mirage as a result by the same score of 16-4. Now that I have looked at this, I think we could see FURIA take this similar line in this match, and we see Vertigo and Mirage. SO, let’s see who has played the best on Vertigo and Mirage for these two. For 100T on their projected map of Vertigo (six map sample) it is no other than jks in the lead with a 1.32 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.38 IMP, and 96.1 ADR. Three others fit the bill here with Jkaem next at 1.12, Gratisfaction at 1.12 also, Liazz at 1.04 rounds it out. For Mirage (two map sample) this small sample is mesmerized by Gratisfaction with a 1.44 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.77 IMP, and 93.9 ADR. Jkaem is next at 1.25, AZR at 1.07, and lastly, Liazz at 1.06. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Vertigo (six map sample) arT has been a beast here for this sample with a 1.39 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.75 IMP, and 96.5 ADR. HEN1 is next at 1.21, KSCERATO at 1.18, yuurih at 1.17, and lastly, VINI at 1.02 to end it. For Vertigo (10 map sample) arT has been the best here lately also, sitting with a 1.26 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.57 IMP, and 87.1 ADR. I do think FURIA wins this match, and as much as I hate being on the same side of the chalk in all three matches, I do think the books are correct in doing so. If FURIA goes Mirage, I think they can sweep this match. Vertigo will be the map that needs to be won by 100T, but we know FURIA loves Vertigo also. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: jks – (Best numbers by far against FUR and on both maps)
Top Stacking Options: jks, Gratisfaction, jkaem
ANCHOR: arT – (let’s go with the hot-hand here in arT, who has been excellent lately)
Top Stacking Options: arT, KSCERATO, HEN1
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: S1mple, niko, arT, jks
Top Stacks: NaVi, FURIA, Heroic
Top Values: Gratisfaction, VINI, JW, flamie, nawwk