The UFC has stacked this PPV card like it usually does. There are great fights throughout and virtually no favorite is all that safe. We’ll lean on the one’s who will score well in a win, either through volume or wrestling, to make up for it.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Daniel Cormier vs Stipe Miocic | 8500/7700 | - | Stackability: Safe | -135/ +125 | +128/+188 | This is a pretty compelling rematch for the HW belt. Stipe is a tough proposition for anyone but DC may just be better in every area but reach. My bet is Cormier wins a much more competitive and entertaining bout. It makes a great cash stack. |
Expensive | Devonte Smith | 9500 | Khama Worthy | Safe | -1000 | -392 | Smith is getting his second lat replacement here. The UFC just wants to keep him on the card and not waste his camp at this point. First round KO incoming. |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 9300 | Gabriel Benitez | Somewhat-Safe | -270 | +131 | Yusuff is one of the divisions best prospects. He's a dynamic striker with plenty of power. Benitez is a veteran and a stiff challenge but one Yusuff should be able to handle. | |
| Hannah Cifers | 9200 | Jodie Esquibel | Somewhat-Safe | -260 | +465 | Cifers is a competent striker with some power. That's literally all you need to edge Jodie Esquibel. | |
| Drakkar Klose | 9000 | Christos Giagos | Risky | -160 | +429 | I'm going full FADE on Klose. There's no way he supports this DK price in a win and it's closer than the odds indicate. He's a decision fighter that's likely to lose the first round. Not a recipe for a lock. | |
Mid-Range | Yoel Romero | 8600 | Paulo Costa | Somewhat-Safe | -135 | +137 | Romero is entering the "get wild, have fun" stage of his career. He couldn't take the belt from Whittaker so now he'll have to be satisfied with name fights. He's an olympic athlete and a devastating puncher. This is a nice price. |
| Cory Sandhagen | 8700 | Raphael Assuncao | Somewhat-Safe | -220 | +358 | Sandhagen's pace should win out if he can stay off the mat. His devil may care attitude pairs well with his range and wild style. It's no easy task topping Assuncao, though. | |
| Manny Bermudez | 8400 | Casey Kenney | Somewhat-Safe | -160 | -111 | Bermudez will get caught in a fist fight at some point but he hasn't yet. His BJJ has been lethal and he bends his will to engaging it. Kenney had a nice fight with Ray Borg but this is a different match up. | |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 8900 | Brandon Davis | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +177 | Kang will have an easy time of it if he pushes the wrestling. Davis hasn't had an answer for takedowns at this level. That could lead to a fairly early submission. | |
| Ian Heinisch | 8800 | Derek Brunson | Moderate | -145 | +155 | Heinisch has a knack for winning fights. When your motivation is not going back to Rikers that tends to be the case. He's likely to use cage control and grit to edge a close decision. | |
| Anthony Pettis | 8300 | Nate Diaz | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +318 | Pettis has reinvented himself. He knows he'll have to absorb punishment to land his shots. He still has some magic in his hands that can put you to sleep. It's a tough way to make a living, though. | |
| Sabina Mazo | 8000 | Shana Dobson | Risky | -125 | +570 | Mazo is the more well regarded prospect, but maybe not the better fighter. She'll have to have made adjustments to get it done against a good boxer in Dobson. | |
| Shana Dobson | 8200 | Sabina Mazo | Risky | +115 | +535 | If Mazo can't adjust, Dobson should outwork her on the feet to a decision win. | |
Pay-Downs | Nate Diaz | 7900 | Anthony Pettis | Moderate | +120 | +365 | It's been three years since Diaz has fought. Exactly how motivated is he? On paper this is a winable fight with an opportunity to put volume on his opponent. That's a great price for what he could potentially score. A disinterested Diaz is a tire fire, though. |
| Paulo Costa | 7600 | Yoel Romero | Moderate | +125 | +226 | Costa hasn't faced anyone near Romero's caliber. Romero has been hurt in fights, though, and Costa puts the kind of hurt on you that leaves you looking at the ceiling. It's a GPP play but the KO is live. | |
| Gabriel Benitez | 6900 | Sodiq Yusuff | Somewhat-Risky | +248 | +414 | Benitez may be able to out point the younger Yusuff and any win at $6900 is a slate breaker. | |
| Christos Giagos | 7200 | Drakkar Klose | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +485 | Giagos is one of my favorite dogs. His M.O. is a great first round behind power wrestling and fading somewhere in the second. Klose doesn't push a pace and will likely be trying to come from behind. | |
| Derek Brunson | 7400 | Ian Heinisch | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +345 | Brunson has been largely dismissed but still has some weapons. He's a good wrestler and has power in his left hand. His style isn't a great fit for the way Heinisch has been winning fights. | |
| Raphael Assuncao | 7500 | Cory Sandhagen | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +600 | Assuncao's path to victory is a submission. Sandhagen does overextend himself often. There will be takedowns from Assuncao, it's just a question of what he does with the time on the mat. | |
| Casey Kenney | 7800 | Manny Bermudez | Risky | +150 | +507 | Kenney looked very solid against UFC vet Ray Borg. He may have also been a stylistic nightmare for Borg. Bermudez is a much different fighter. Still, the blueprint to beating him is easy enough. Stay off the mat and box from the outside. Kenney is capable of that. | |
| Jodie Esquibel | 7000 | Hannah Cifers | Risky | +240 | +1135 | Cifers will be very chalky. This would be a leverage GPP play at a low salary, nothing more. |
Core Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
Core GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
Top Bets
Favorite Bets: Cormier -140, Diaz +110, Romero -140, Giagos +150
Favorite Props: Bermudez ITD +135, Kang ITD +200
Live Dogs: Miocic, Diaz, Costa, Benitez, Brunson, Assuncao, Giagos, Kenney
Stats & Picks
| Daniel Cormier | vs | Stipe Miocic |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 22-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (78%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Anthony Pettis | vs | Nate Diaz |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 22-8-0 | Record | Record: 20-11-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (26%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (58%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (32%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Yoel Romero | vs | Paulo Costa |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (85%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (92%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Gabriel Benitez | vs | Sodiq Yusuff |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 21-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (48%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +240 | Vegas Odds | -280 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Derek Brunson | vs | Ian Heinisch |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 19-7-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Devonte Smith | vs | Khama Worthy |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (90%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (57%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| -100 | Vegas Odds | +650 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 0/10 |
| Raphael Assuncao | vs | Cory Sandhagen |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 27-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (37%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| +175 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Christos Giagos | vs | Drakkar Klose |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-1 |
| 7 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Manny Bermudez | vs | Casey Kenney |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 14-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-1 |
| 1 KO/TKO (7%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (79%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Hannah Cifers | vs | Jodie Esquibel |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-5-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | vs | Brandon Davis |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 15-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (73%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Sabina Mazo | vs | Shana Dobson |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 3-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |