This is not the most star-studded UFC card of the year. We can use that to our advantage to spot traps and mine value plays that more casual players may miss. Variance is likely to be high so don’t be afraid to get weird building lineups.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Valentina Shevchenko vs Liz Carmouche | 9600/6600 | - | Stackability: moderate | -1000/ +800 | -130/+1025 | This is one of the widest lines you'll see for good reason. Carmouche is getting the title shot since there's no other quality contender and she has a win over Valentina eons ago. You can't bully Shevchenko and she'll piece Carmouche up on the feet slowly. The lack of volume makes it a tough price and borderline stack, though. |
Expensive | Vicente Luque | 9000 | Mike Perry | Safe | -220 | +115 | Don't let Luque's recent battles with gritty brawlers dissuade you here. His striking is miles better than Perry, who won't engage the way Luque's previous opponents did when there's that much heat coming back his way. Luque could also grab a takedown fairly easily against the clinchy Perry and work for a sub. The best play on the card. |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 9100 | Oskar Piechota | Somewhat-Safe | -215 | -170 | Piechota was submitted by Gerald Meerschaert. Vieira makes his BJJ pale in comparison. He's a jiu-jitsu wiz. Take the value on a name that isn't recognizable yet. | |
| Ciryl Gane | 9400 | Raphael Pessoa | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | -275 | We'll become sick of the Ngannou comps in a hurry, but Gane is big, fast, and aggressive. His 3-0 MMA record belies his excellent muay thai creditials. Canadian promotion TKO brought him in to fight for the title with zero MMA experience for good reason. That he smoked both title contenders says where he is progression wise. | |
| Enrique Barzola | 8900 | Bobby Moffett | Moderate | -120 | +770 | It's been an up and down progression for the Peruvian product. He's strong as a bull and relentless. That's typically masked his technical shortcomings and poor fight IQ. Moffett had a hard time dealing with a strong grappler in his last loss. Barzola usually piles up takedowns and scores well in a win. | |
Mid-Range | Volkan Oezdemir | 8500 | Ilir Latifi | Somewhat-Safe | -160 | +145 | Oezdemir's wrestling has been improving and he's prepared for Latifi's wrestling three separate times now. It may not be a fast paced affair but I expect Oazdemir to eventually unload with his power and earn a finish or easy decision. |
| Aleksei Kunchenko | 8800 | Gilbert Burns | Somewhat-Safe | -130 | +323 | Kunchenko is a model of Russian effeciency. The problem there is that makes for a poor DK score. He probably doesn't stumble against the less technical Burns and wins a low scoring decision. | |
| Geraldo de Freitas | 8300 | Chris Gutierrez | Somewhat-Safe | -130 | +291 | de Freitas gave us a bunch of takedowns in his UFC debut. It would be wise to continue that approach here. Always look for the fighter heaviest in takedowns. | |
| Raulian Paiva | 8000 | Rogerio Bontorin | Somewhat-Safe | -110 | +400 | Paiva is coming off a loss in his debut while Bontorin won his. MMAth is a dangerous science and would lead you astray here. Paiva is the more disciplined fighter with better striking. | |
| Rogerio Bontorin | 8200 | Raulian Paiva | Moderate | +100 | +390 | Bontorin has found a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat recently. It's not outside the realm of possibilites that he pulls that off again. As the most evenly priced fighters they have the winner has the best shot at value. | |
| Polyana Viana | 8600 | Veronica Macedo | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +245 | Viana has become a severly overpriced underdog after the line flipped mid week. That will make her very low owned. She's strictly a mass entry play but she is the only one who possesses a fight ending skill in her BJJ. | |
| Eduardo Garagorri | 8400 | Humberto Bandenay | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +155 | The only actual local fighter on the card. Not a fun spot to bet against. | |
Pay-Downs | Bobby Moffett | 7300 | Enrique Barzola | Moderate | +110 | +320 | Barzola will come forward with his bull rush style all fight. That leaves him exposed to Moffet's jiu-jitsu again and again. Moffett is gaining traction but he's an excellent value. |
| Kazula Vargas | 7000 | Alex Da Silva | Moderate | +240 | +390 | I'm making a fairly large bet that da Silva isn't the fighter his padded record indicates. In Vargas he's getting a tough as nails Mexican fighter as a late replacement. Vegas has botched the odds on a bunch of late replacements lately. Vargas has the southpaw power to claim a KO in a slugfest. | |
| Gilbert Burns | 7400 | Aleksei Kunchenko | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +328 | Burns is facing one of his toughest opponents to date. Still, the dynamic Brazilian deserves more respect than this. He has finishing ability on the mat and on the feet. | |
| Chris Gutierrez | 7900 | Geraldo de Freitas | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +385 | If de Freitas fails to enforce his wrestling Gutierrez can throw heat. This is a fight to get exposure to both sides. | |
| Ilir Latifi | 7700 | Volkan Oezdemir | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +330 | Latifi is a mismatch for a good portion of the division. His control wrestling could be an issue for Oezdemir, who's had trouble defending takedowns at times. | |
| Marina Rodriguez | 7500 | Tecia Torres | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +500 | There's a chance the book on how to beat Torres is out. Rodriguez has the striking and the length to execute it. | |
| Humberto Bandenay | 7800 | Eduardo Garagorri | Risky | -105 | +185 | Garagorri is probably not a UFC level talent. He may not even be on Bandenay's level. The UFC is trying to get a local guy a win but there's only so much they can do. | |
| Veronica Macedo | 7600 | Polyana Viana | Risky | -135 | +400 | Macedo has looked slightly more competitive in her losses than Viana has in hers. Viana hasn't been able to deal with striking at this level. If Macedo can let her hands go she could take a decision. |
Cash Plays: Shevchenko, Luque, Gane, Rodriguez
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: Vieira, Paiva, Oezdemir, de Freitas or Gutierrez, Moffett, Vargas
(Sample lineup)
Favorite Bets: Luque -230, Paiva -115, de Freitas -125
Favorite Props: Vieira ITD -170, Moffett via SUB +425, Vargas ITD +390, Rodriguez via DEC +250
Live Dogs: Moffett, Vargas, Burns, Rodriguez, Latifi, Gutierrez, Viana
Stats & Picks:
| Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Liz Carmouche |
| $9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 17-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| -1000 | Vegas Odds | +800 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Vicente Luque | vs | Mike Perry |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 16-6-1 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (85%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Eduardo Garagorri | vs | Humberto Bandenay |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC) |
| 4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | vs | Ilir Latifi |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-0 (1 NC) |
| 11 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Oskar Piechota |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 5-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-1 |
| 1 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (80%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
| -215 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Enrique Barzola | vs | Bobby Moffett |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 16-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (7%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Gilbert Burns | vs | Aleksei Kunchenko |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 20-0-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (65%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ciryl Gane | vs | Raphael Pessoa |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 3-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +340 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Tecia Torres | vs | Marina Rodriguez |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-1 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Rogerio Bontorin | vs | Raulian Paiva |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 15-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (73%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Geraldo de Freitas | vs | Chris Gutierrez |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kazula Vargas | vs | Alex Da Silva |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 20-2-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (65%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
| +240 | Vegas Odds | -280 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Veronica Macedo | vs | Polyana Viana |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 5-3-1 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |