Now that we’re a few weeks into the second half of the MLB season we can make our best guesses at who’s underachieving and who’s playing over their head using particular metrics. It’s a great time to check in on the metric Brian Creagh and I put together: the Fly Index. In our preseason piece, we mentioned names like Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, Max Kepler, and Paul DeJong. Let’s look to keep things rolling with by examining the Fly Index leaderboard.
Here are the top Fly Index performers with a minimum of 200 batted ball events.
Matt Olson has pretty impressive batted ball stats given he’s coming off of hamate bone surgery. That typically saps a hitter’s power. Watch out for his power surge in the second half.
A few slumping hitters in Rougned Odor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have all been hot lately. Their Fly Index has been solid so it’s not that surprising. If a leaguemate is looking to capitalize on any of their power flashes I’d be willing to buy.
Hunter Dozier hit some bumps mid-season due to injury. His Fly Index remains high. That 4.5% HR rate is bound to increase.
Justin Smoak’s plate approach leads to better peripherals than actual HR production but it’s still nice to see he’s getting the ball in the air often. With the juiced ball Smoak could go on a tear at any time.
I wouldn’t call Anthony Rendon’s 25 home runs an underperformance by any stretch. With an elite Fly Index of 346.8 generated by his quality contact, there could be even more dingers around the corner.
I also reached out to Brian to get his thoughts on the first half’s data. He ran a quick regression using Fly Index, Exit Velocity, and Launch Angle to build a model projecting home run rates. A few observations he had comparing that to players actual numbers:
Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, and Yordan Alvarez are expected to "regress". I put that in quotes because Renfroe and Yordan still grade out with Top 20 projected HR rates, they just don't project to be hitting them out at the same insane clip they're at now.
Bryan Reynolds looks legit. One of the true breakout players in the first half, looks like he could be providing more power in the second half.
Cavan Biggio is a stud and could go on a huge run.
Nick Castellanos could have a nice little run with the Cubs batting second.
Next, let’s take a look at the hitters with 200 BBEs, a HR rate over 3%, and a Fly Index below 300. These are candidates prime for negative regression.
Could Matt Olson be this year’s second-half stud a la Christian Yelich? It’s certainly possible, given the power he’s generated and will presumably only get better as his hand gets back to full strength. Brian updates the Fly Index leaderboard weekly, so be sure to check it as you make your early week roster decisions. It’s also a great time to kick the tires on some regression candidates whose owners may not know what they have on the roster. Fly Index is new and a great angle to leverage your rosters over leaguemates not in the know.