This is shaping up to be an interesting card in a few unique ways. We’re down to eleven fights, which is rare. In the main and co-main there are all-time greats getting less respect than I think they should. There are also plenty of great bets at plus odds. I’m excited to see how this situation on Draftkings turns out.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Safe | -335/ 305 | -105/725 | The only real fight for Holloway this week is with the scale. He's back at 145 to defend his belt. Edgar should have retired after Brian Ortega dusted him. Against the striking of Holloway it's going to be an ugly farewell fight. |
Expensive | Cris Cyborg | 9600 | Felicia Spencer | Safe | -550 | -382 | Cyborg is being heavily disrespected by the this line. Her striking is worlds better than the raw Spencer. She's uncommon strong and will easily nullify her opponents wrestling. The biggest concern here is that it's over too quickly. |
| Geoff Neal | 9000 | Niko Price | Somewhat-Safe | -345 | -205 | Neal could very well post the best score of the night. His striking is tight and backed by serious power. Price is easy to hit and keeps coming forward to rack up strikes against. | |
| Viviane Araujo | 9100 | Alexis Davis | Moderate | -190 | +187 | It's a tough spot for Araujo going from dog to big favorite in one fight. She should do well in a winnable fight but it will be a challenge to exceed value. | |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 9300 | Yoshinori Horie | Moderate | -420 | -102 | The knockout has evaded Dawodu through three UFC fights. His technique is superior to most fighters and that's enough to win, albeit with a modest score. | |
Mid-Range | Arman Tsarukyan | 8800 | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Somewhat-Safe | -190 | +320 | |
| Krzysztof Jotko | 8700 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Moderate | -165 | +310 | Jotko is better than many fighters but his chin has become an issue. A trend has emerged of dominating a fight until he gets hit square. | |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 8300 | Deiveson Figueiredo | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +450 | ||
| Kyle Stewart | 8200 | Erik Koch | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +275 | ||
| Gillian Robertson | 8600 | Sarah Frota | Risky | -125 | +169 | Robertson is pretty good at working for submissions off her wrestling. Frota will oblige on that front so a stoppage is live. | |
Pay-Downs | Deiveson Figueiredo | 7900 | Alexandre Pantoja | Moderate | +110 | +270 | A lot of recency bias at play in this line. Figueiredo is still the most dangerous striker in the division. Pantoja isn't going to control him the way Formiga did. Once he gets in range it could all be over. |
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 7500 | Krzysztof Jotko | Moderate | +145 | +300 | Barriault can crack. If you make a mistake he'll punish it. Jotko has notable chin issues, to boot. | |
| Sarah Frota | 7600 | Gillian Robertson | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +197 | Frota has a size advantage on much of the division. She puts it to use with aggressive wrestling. We haven't seen Robertson have to deal with a wrestler capable of bullying her. | |
| SeungWoo Choi | 7800 | Gavin Tucker | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +254 | It's mind-boggling that Choi is a dog here. Tucker received an all-time worst beat down and took two years off from fighting. Choi dropped his UFC debut but it was to up and comer Movsar Evloev. Choi is a solid prospect in his own right. | |
| Alexis Davis | 7400 | Viviane Araujo | Risky | +165 | +965 | The gritty veteran at a deep discount works out from time to time. |
Cash Plays: Holloway, Cyborg, Choi, Tsarukyan, Dawadu
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: Neal, Figueiredo, Stewart, Frota, Barriault
(Sample lineup)
Favorite Bets: Holloway -335, Neal -345, Choi -105, Figueiredo +110, Frota +105
Favorite Props: Cyborg ITD -382, Barriault via KO +335, Stewart via KO +420
Live Dogs: Choi, Figueiredo, Barriault, Frota
Stats & Picks:
| Max Holloway | vs | Frankie Edgar |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 20-4-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-1 |
| 10 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +305 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Cris Cyborg | vs | Felicia Spencer |
| $9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 20-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| 17 KO/TKO (85%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) |
| -550 | Vegas Odds | +425 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Geoff Neal | vs | Niko Price |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
| -345 | Vegas Odds | +285 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Olivier Aubin-Mercier | vs | Arman Tsarukyan |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (9%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (73%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| +165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault | vs | Krzysztof Jotko |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 20-4-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alexis Davis | vs | Viviane Araujo |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 19-9-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) |
| +165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | vs | Yoshinori Horie |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-1-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -420 | Vegas Odds | +335 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Gavin Tucker | vs | SeungWoo Choi |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 1/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alexandre Pantoja | vs | Deiveson Figueiredo |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 21-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-1-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (53%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Gillian Robertson | vs | Sarah Frota |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (83%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Erik Koch | vs | Kyle Stewart |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |