The UFC backed the talent truck up for this PPV card. Two belts are on the line, plus two defacto top contender eliminators, and Ferguson-Cerrone (I). There will be some instant classics from this event. Like any good PPV, the fights are harder to call. Be sure to mix in a variety of fighters. All in all this is a banger of a card. Enjoy.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes | 7900/8300 | - | Stackability: Safe | 120/ -140 | 425/139 | I’m drawn to Cejudo as a dog here.It’s an absolute coin flip between two red-hot fighters. Cejudo’s wrestling could be the X-factor. Then again, Moraes pin-point power could as well. The ownership winds are favoring Moraes. While I’ll own both that makes a Cejudo win more profitable. I’m stacking in cash for the safety of a ME winner. |
Expensive | Valentina Shevchenko | 9600 | Jessica Eye | Safe | -1,250 | +128 | “Bullet” is getting the Cyborg treatment as a four-figure favorite.There’s nothing Eye does better. She’s also the best possible style matchup for Valentina. It’s a big price but safety is thin with this card. |
Tatiana Suarez | 9500 | Nina Ansaroff | Somewhat-Safe | -750 | -151 | The only real concern is that Ansaroff is a good enough fighter to stifle some of Suarez’ aggression. Suarez hasn’t fought the best of the division yet, but she’s dominated everyone. Her persistentt wrestling is too good to turn down. | |
Petr Yan | 9300 | Jimmie Rivera | Somewhat-Safe | -340 | +155 | Marlon Moraes showed that Rivera could be KO'd and Aljamain Sterling showed he could be out-boxed.Yan can do either. Rivera’s confidence is also badly hurt after experiencing those loses. | |
Yan Xiaonan | 9100 | Angela Hill | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | +544 | Her volume and variety in striking make her a safer bet. She may not score as high with a finish less likely than others in the range. Still, this is a very winnable fight for an up-and-comer in the division. | |
Bevon Lewis | 9000 | Darren Stewart | Moderate | -165 | +163 | There are concerns with Lewis facing another hard-hitting UFC vet. He’s likely learned a lesson off the KO loss in a fight he had won, however. Lewis has all the tools to make a run up the division ladder. | |
Mid-Range | Tony Ferguson | 8600 | Donald Cerrone | Moderate | -140 | +183 | El Cucuy is one of the divisions best. He has no quit and will keep coming for you as long as he’s conscious. His length and power will definitely test Cerrone’s well-worn chin. Tony has chin issues of his own so there’s no safety in this bout. It’s Ferguson’s fight to lose, though. |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 8400 | Alexa Grasso | Moderate | -120 | +565 | It’s hard not to wonder where KK’s game is after a string of losses. Her high output was too much for most fighters. Then she hit the division’s ceiling and crumbled. It’s likely to be clear right away whether Grasso has an answer. | |
Tai Tuivasa | 8700 | Blagoy Ivanov | Moderate | -135 | +167 | Big Tai should win a boxing match here if he can stay patient.He was actually giving JDS trouble with his boxing before getting impatient and dropped. That loss notwithstanding, Tai is a better athlete and better fighter that should win. | |
Aljamain Sterling | 8500 | Pedro Munhoz | Moderate | -125 | +382 | Sterling is too sharp for the very hittable Munhoz.His wrestling and BJJ are a threat even for someone as good as Munhoz in those areas. Aljo is a bad stylistic match up for Munhoz. Sterling by decision. | |
Joanne Calderwood | 8100 | Katlyn Chookagian | Moderate | -105 | +445 | JoJo’s a fairly similar fighter to Eye, who beat Chookagian with a balanced approach. KC has solid takedown defense though her range has kept most from trying. JoJo won’t be deterred by that. She’ll bang on the feet, as well. | |
Eddie Wineland | 8200 | Grigorii Popov | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +448 | This matchmaking is fairly bizarre. Wineland should smoke this guy, who’s been fighting regional soup cans into his mid 30’s. That said, it’s Eddie Wineland. We never know when he’s going to pull a stunt. | |
Pay-Downs | Donald Cerrone | 7600 | Tony Ferguson | Moderate | +120 | +245 | Dad Cerrone is on an unbeaten streak. His counterpunching could give Ferguson heaps of trouble.He’ll be in the danger zone bell to bell. There’s value on him at this price, though. |
Darren Stewart | 7200 | Bevon Lewis | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +222 | Stewart came to the UFC too soon and almost washed out of it. He matured on the job and has put together some solid wins. He’s versatile and powerful. Lewis should be the favorite but Stewart can make it a war. | |
Pedro Munhoz | 7700 | Aljamain Sterling | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +300 | Munhoz is always dangerous. His boxing has come a long way, at least offensively. As far as defense, it doesn’t much matter because he’s got a chin and doesn’t mind being hit. I’d bet him ITD if anything. | |
Jimmie Rivera | 6900 | Petr Yan | Risky | +280 | +900 | It’s hard to see Rivera offering anything John Dodson couldn’t in his loss to Yan.He’s likely destined to be a gatekeeper. The thing there is those fighters surprise plenty of rising fighters who’ve never faced someone as savvy. | |
Alexa Grasso | 7800 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Risky | +100 | +475 | Grasso’s star has dimmed considerably since her UFC debut. She looked great at the face-off, though. Her boxing is more than good enough to duplicate the game plan of others that beat KK. She just has to execute it. | |
Blagoy Ivanov | 7500 | Tai Tuivasa | High Risk | +115 | +298 | If Ivanov makes it an ugly fight, or pulls out some wrestling, he could grind out a decision. The guy is insanely tough. You don’t get through five rounds of JDS punishing you without an iron jaw. He doesn’t do enough offensively to consistently win fights, though. | |
Toss Up | Ricardo Lamas vs Calvin Kattar | 7400/8800 | - | Stackability: Risky | 125/ -145 | 345/251 | Lamas’ career is winding down. He reached the top of the division only to find out he couldn’t beat any of it’s best. Kattar is a rock solid boxer. Not the kind of fighter Lamas has beaten with ease. Whoever wins the first round is likely to carry the fight. There’s some value on Katter by KO. |
Cash Plays: Moraes/Cejudo stack, Ferguson/Cerrone stack, Shevchenko, Suarez, Yan, Xiaonan
Sample lineup...
GPP Plays: Lewis, Tuivasa, Grasso, Calderwood, Wineland
Sample lineup...
Favorite Bets: Xiaonan -155, Lewis -165, Calderwood -105
Favorite Props: Cejudo ITD +425, Shevchenko ITD +128, Sterling via DEC +150 (can hedge w/ Munhoz ITD +300)
Live Dogs: Cejudo, Cerrone, Munhoz, Grasso, Lamas, Stewart
Stats and Picks
Henry Cejudo | vs | Marlon Moraes |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 22-5-1 |
6 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (45%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Jessica Eye |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC) |
4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (21%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
-1,250 | Vegas Odds | +800 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Tony Ferguson | vs | Donald Cerrone |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 25-3-0 | Record | Record: 36-11-0 (1 NC) |
11 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (28%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 17 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
-140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Jimmie Rivera | vs | Petr Yan |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 22-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
4 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
+280 | Vegas Odds | -340 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Tai Tuivasa | vs | Blagoy Ivanov |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 (1 NC) |
7 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (35%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Tatiana Suarez | vs | Nina Ansaroff |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
-750 | Vegas Odds | +525 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Aljamain Sterling | vs | Pedro Munhoz |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 17-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC) |
2 KO/TKO (12%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (22%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz | vs | Alexa Grasso |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
1 KO/TKO (8%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ricardo Lamas | vs | Calvin Kattar |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 19-7-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
6 KO/TKO (32%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (42%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (16%) |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Yan Xiaonan | vs | Angela Hill |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-6-0 |
5 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Bevon Lewis | vs | Darren Stewart |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 (1 NC) |
3 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (78%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Eddie Wineland | vs | Grigorii Popov |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 23-13-1 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
14 KO/TKO (61%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Katlyn Chookagian | vs | Joanne Calderwood |
$8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
2 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (38%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |