MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 237

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

BreakDown

Made Weight

Main Event

Rose Namajunas

vs

Jessica Andrade

7900/8300

-

Stackability: Safe

110/-130

245/212

The rare case when the Champ is the dog. It's not without reason. Andrade has impressive wrestling and aggression, which have caused Rose issues in the past. Still, she's a young fighter and improving always. I don't expect her to be a fish out of water when TDs hit. Great for a cash stack and affordable on both sides. Rose gives you leverage on the field.

Both

$$$

Raoni Barcelos

9600

Carlos Huachin

Safe

-1,100

-235

Raoni is the next "it" Brazilian. His greatest strength is lethal BJJ, but he showed you have to be careful on the feet in KO'ing Kurt Holobaugh. His win odds are huge as is his DK price. It could still be worthwhile, especially in cash.

Yes

Irene Aldana

9200

Bethe Correia

Somewhat-Safe

-300

+180

It's a big price tag for an unproven fighter, though she has scored well on DK in every appearance. Her toughness and strong striking output make her a safe cash option. ***Her opponent missed weight by 5 lbs. Not a concern as Irene's large for the div.***

Yes

Clay Guida

9500

BJ Penn

Moderate

-750

-170

The downside to making fights for BJ Penn is that you're adding losses to his record. Penn's a punching bag at this point and Guida stays busy if nothing else. I don't think he's as likely to finish the fight as most, but it's in play. Neither the odds nor DK price are very appealing, however.

Yes

$$

Jose Aldo

8400

Alexander Volkanovski

Somewhat-Risky

-135

+283

We thought Aldo was done after back to back losses to Max Holloway. Turns out Also has something left winning his next two. He hasn't looked like the monster that was peak Aldo but he hasn't had to. He still wants the KO more than anyone he's stepped in the cage with not named Max and his takedown defense is like giving a dog a bath.

Yes

Jared Cannonier

8700

Anderson Silva

Somewhat-Risky

-130

+206

The bigger risk with Cannonier is that even in a win his output may not score well. Silva is a master of limiting strikes landed by his opponent. Silva's chin has shown it's cracks, but he's very hard to catch. I don't see this playing out all that differently than the Adesanya fight.

Yes

Warlley Alves

8600

Sergio Moraes

Somewhat-Risky

-135

+500

Warlley's career has been all over the map. He's beat Colby Covington and lost to Bryan Barberena. If opponents give him the war he wants they tend to get in trouble. The mid-range is a challenge to pick this week so Alves makes some sense to mix in.

Yes

Ryan Spann

8800

Rogerio Nogueira

Risky

-135

+135

It's never easy defeating a Brazilian legend in Rio. Spann has the tools to do it. He's longer, far more athletic, and likely has the more rounded MMA game at this point. Still, we've seen plenty of young fighters thrown off their game in this situation. If he avoids Nog's big left hand it's not a hard fight to win.

Yes

Thiago Moises

8500

Kurt Holobaugh

Risky

-120

+220

At only 24 years old don't expect Moises to be a finished product. I'm curious to see if he can show he learned from a loss to the very solid Beneil Dariush. That's a tough UFC debut and shows what the promotion thinks of him. Kurt Holobaugh isn't a tough fighter to beat if you deal with his pressure.

Yes

$

Alexander Volkanovski

7800

Jose Aldo

Moderate

+115

+254

Volk has been storming up the ranks. He had his chin tested by Chad Mendes and it passed, but not by much. He won't be able to lean on his wrestling here and that means a kickboxing match with one of the deadliest the division's ever seen. There's reason to own both fighters, but it's an uphill climb for Volk.

Yes

Rogerio Nogueira

7400

Ryan Spann

Somewhat-Risky

+115

+221

Little Nog' has one path to victory at this point: wait for opponents to come in and land a knockout left. That's a handy skill to still have in the bag, it's just hard to count on. Name recognition may push ownership up as well. He's all ceiling and no floor.

Yes

Kurt Holobaugh

7700

Thiago Moises

Somewhat-Risky

+100

+358

Holobaugh is garnering far too much attention for my liking. He makes some sense as a dog with a shot to win with pressure. What he's not is a smart fighter. At 32 entering his 24th fight his mistakes aren't really acceptable. It's a somewhat risky play. The problem is there aren't many dogs with a shot to win. I'll avoid him in GPPs at elevated ownership.

Yes

Anderson Silva

7500

Jared Cannonier

Risky

+110

+550

A bet on Silva is banking on him getting to the scorecards. Cannonier isn't the most cerebral fighter, so the Spider certainly has a shot at that. His chin will need to hold up/he needs to minimize the cocky head shucking. In Brazil, I don't trust his opponent winning all the judges over.

Yes

Sergio Moraes

7600

Warlley Alves

Risky

+115

+315

Moraes can win here if he gets the fight to the mat. He doesn't always dedicate himself to wrestling, however. I would hope his gameplan against a brawler like Alves is to attack with grappling. Again, there aren't many dogs with a real chance to win and Moraes is one of the few that do.

Yes

BJ Penn

6700

Clay Guida

High Risk

+525

+845

The only real play with Penn is in Cash as a salary saver with the hope that he sees the third round and can crack 25 DK points. With a stackable main event that's not as necessary.

Yes

Toss Up

Thiago Alves vs

Laureano Staropoli

8200/8000

-

Stackability: High Risk

-110/-110

500/277

I just can't back Alves at this point. He was "gifted" a decision (also in Brazil) last time out. I'm not sure that matters here. If Staropoli wings shots like he did in his debut win the pressure should be too much for a shopworn Alves. In a stoppage, Staropoli will almost certainly be on the optimal lineup.

Both

Rose Namajunas

vs

Jessica Andrade

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 9-3-0

Record

Record: 19-6-0

1 KO/TKO (13%)

Knockouts

6 KO/TKO (32%)

5 SUBMISSIONS (63%)

Subs

7 SUBMISSIONS (37%)

+110

Vegas Odds

-130

5/10

Lineup Pool

6/10