This a very Canadian card taking place in Ottawa. Lots of fighters and lots of solid scraps. It’s also good to see Canadians facing each other since the judging has been questionable up North lately. I love the main event between Al Iaquinta and Donald Cerrone. Both are such solid fighters who don’t always get the respect they deserve. It should be a very entertaining bout to wrap up the event. Below are my plays and the straight picks with stats are at the end.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | Made Weight | |
Main Event | Al Iaquinta vs Donald Cerrone | 8400/7800 | - | Stackabilty: Moderate | -125/105 | 180/195 | This is excellent match-making. Both fighters are game for a war. I give Cerone a slight edge as the better counter striker and he has lethal BJJ. Fairly stackable as a possible five rounder with volume striking from both sides. | Both |
Expensive | Nordine Taleb | 9300 | Kyle Prepolec | Safe | -355 | +265 | Taleb is a massive welterweight getting a lightweight as a late replacement. His technical style combined with that advantage makes him the best bet to hit value for me. | Yes |
| Macy Chiasson | 9400 | Sarah Moras | Safe | -800 | -165 | Macy's taking the upper women's divisions by storm. Her length and pace create a nightmare for opponents. She's an enormous favorite and the best ITD odds of the card. | Missed but cut needed pound with extra time. | |
| Walt Harris | 8900 | Serghei Spivac | Somewhat-Safe | -165 | +100 | His 4-4 UFC record betrays his true potential. A DQ & NC tarnish it. He's a beast even at HW. His southpaw stance leads to KOs as 11 out of 11 wins are knockouts. | Yes | |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 9000 | Vince Morales | Moderate | -150 | +435 | Zahabi would have been fast-tracked if not for a KO loss to a spinning elbow from Ricardo Ramos in 2017. We haven't seen him since. Still a well-rounded fighter with an opponent that will look to stay standing. | Yes | |
| Matt Sayles | 9100 | Kyle Nelson | Risky | -240 | +175 | After scoring KO's on Lookin' For A Fight and DWTNCS he dropped his debut to the solid Sheymon Moraes. His plus punching power makes him a threat to anyone standing across the cage, though. | Yes | |
Mid-Range | Juan Adams | 8300 | Arjan Bhullar | Somewhat-Safe | -130 | +165 | A giant human who has to cut to the 265 HW limit. His power is ridiculous. A tough test here against a smart fighter in Bhullar. Adams advantages are too great for me to ignore at this price. | Yes |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 8600 | Brad Katona | Moderate | -185 | +530 | He's likely the better fighter, but that's been the case in each of his UFC fights for a 1-2 record. All-out aggression creates liabilities for Merab. In a win that pace will put him on the optimal, though. | Yes | |
| Shane Burgos | 8800 | Cub Swanson | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +180 | Burgos was an uber-prospect until Calvin Kattar KO'd him 3-4 times in one round. His chin let him down again last fight despite getting a hail mary win. He's still fast and hits very hard but needs to be less slick. | Yes | |
| Andrew Sanchez | 8700 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Risky | -170 | +310 | Sanchez has shown well but run out of gas against some good competition. That's a concern against an active striker in Barriault. He's still a deserving favorite as a UFC veteran. | Yes | |
| Mitch Gagnon | 8500 | Cole Smith | Risky | -115 | +290 | Only his second fight since 2014. If he's close to the fighter he was he should win here. | Yes | |
Pay-Downs | Cub Swanson | 7400 | Shane Burgos | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +445 | It's easy to forget Swanson was a title contender prior to his 0-3 run. He's a lesser version of his former self, but still a live striker and great athlete. Burgos has been chiny lately. | Yes |
| Brad Katona | 7600 | Merab Dvalishvili | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +400 | Katona has been developing as he goes, showing poise despite jumps in competition. As an accurate striker, he could spend 3 rounds piecing up the wild Dvalishvili. He'll need to be better against takedowns. | Yes | |
| Kyle Nelson | 7100 | Matt Sayles | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +585 | A late replacement fighting up a weight he showed well debuting. Now he gets a full camp and a fair opponent and will have a height and reach advantage. If he stays away from Sayles power he has a shot. | Yes | |
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 7500 | Andrew Sanchez | Risky | +150 | +380 | If you're looking for a punchers chance it's great for that guy to be a good puncher. Barriault has finished plenty of opponents by KO. | Yes | |
| Arjan Bhullar | 7900 | Juan Adams | Risky | +110 | +355 | It's an uphill climb against Adams, but we've seen enormous fighters gas and Adams has shown gas tank issues. Bhullar is a smart and gritty fighter that is a challenge for anyone. | Yes | |
| Cole Smith | 7700 | Mitch Gagnon | High Risk | -105 | +365 | If Gagnon has lost his edge during a three-year layoff Smith could walk right over him. | Yes | |
| Serghei Spivac | 7300 | Walt Harris | High Risk | +145 | +250 | Making his UFC debut, it's hard to know what Spivac is. His prior competition is recognizable but bad. He's still a HW with plenty of finishing ability as a leverage play. | Yes | |
Toss Up | Derek Brunson vs Elias Theodorou | 8200/8000 | - | Stackabilty: Risky | -110/-110 | 230/690 | The co-main is a clash of styles. Theodorou will look to fight smart and win a decision. Brunson will recklessly look for a KO. Both are excellent athletes. It's a step up for Elias but down for Derek. A KO win scores better, so Brunson is who I'll have more of. | Both |
Favorite Bets: Cerrone +100, Swanson +140, Harris -165
Favorite Props: Adams ITD +165, Sayles ITD +175, Brunson ITD +230
Live Dogs: Cerrone, Swanson, Katona, Barriault, Nelson, Bhullar, Smith
Straight Picks:
Al Iaquinta | vs | Donald Cerrone |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 14-4-1 | Record | Record: 35-11-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 10 |
1 | Submissions | 17 |
W1 | Streak | W2 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| ||
Derek Brunson | vs | Elias Theodorou |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 18-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Submissions | 1 |
L2 | Streak | W1 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| ||
Cub Swanson | vs | Shane Burgos |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 25-10-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Submissions | 5 |
L3 | Streak | W1 |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| ||
Brad Katona | vs | Merab Dvalishvili |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
2 | Submissions | 1 |
W9 | Streak | W1 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| ||
Walt Harris | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 11-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Submissions | 5 |
W1 | Streak | W9 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| ||
Marc-Andre Barriault | vs | Andrew Sanchez |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Submissions | 2 |
W8 | Streak | W1 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| ||
Macy Chiasson | vs | Sarah Moras |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 5-0-0 | Record | Record: 5-5-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
2 | Submissions | 2 |
W4 | Streak | L2 |
-800 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 0/10 |
| ||
Aiemann Zahabi | vs | Vince Morales |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Submissions | 2 |
L1 | Streak | L1 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| ||
Nordine Taleb | vs | Kyle Prepolec |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Submissions | 3 |
L2 | Streak | W2 |
-355 | Vegas Odds | +295 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| ||
Kyle Nelson | vs | Matt Sayles |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Submissions | 0 |
L1 | Streak | L1 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| ||
Arjan Bhullar | vs | Juan Adams |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Submissions | 0 |
W1 | Streak | W5 |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| ||
Mitch Gagnon | vs | Cole Smith |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
10 | Submissions | 3 |
L2 | Streak | W6 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |