MMA DFS Playbook: UFC on Fox 30
Mike Wescott breaks down each fight on the card for UFC on Fox 30 live from Calgary, Alberta, Canada as it pertains to DFS MMA contests on DraftKings.
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The UFC has put together an amazing card for UFC Fox 30. This card could very well be its own PPV that would have many buys. The main card features three former champions who are looking to get back into a title shot. First, we have the former women’s champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Tecia Torres. Then we have two veterans going at it. Former champ Jose Aldo vs Jeremy Stephens in what will be an amazing fight. The main event is a rematch against former champ Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier. The last time these two fought it was shaping up to be an epic fight that ended in a no contest. To start the night off we go to Fight Pass for our first prelims of the night.
Fight Pass Prelims 4pm
Devin Powell 8-3 vs Alvaro Herrera 9-5
Devin has 2 KO/TKO 3 submissions and 3 decision wins. He is 6-2 in his last 8 fights. His 2 losses are his only 2 fights in the octagon, and both were by decision. He has 5 1st round finishes. He has a strong Muay Thai and Jiu jitsu background. He was discovered on Dana White’s earlier show “Lookin for a Fight”
Alvaro has 5 KO/TKO 3 submissions and 1 win by DQ. He has won 5 of his last 8. He has 4 1st round finishes. He has great hands and likes to setup the triangle when the fight goes to the ground. He has never gone the distance in his career.
Both fighters are evenly matched. I expect to see a well-rounded fight by both. This fight will end up in the hands of the judges and Alvaro with another win.
Randa Markos 8-5 vs Nina Ansaroff 8-5
Randa has 3 submission and 5 decision wins. She was on TUF 20 where she had wins over Tecia Torres and Felice Herring but lost to then future champ Rose Namajunas. She has 2 1st round finishes. She has a wrestling background where she took a National Bronze Medal in Canada. All her submissions come via armbar.
Nina has 4 KO/TKO 2 submissions and 2 decisions. She has won 7 of her last 9 including a 2-fight win streak. Has a win over Angela Hill. Holds a 3rd degree black belt in Taekwondo and a purple belt in Jiu jitsu.
This is a classic grappler vs striker fight. Randa needs to use her wrestling and take the fight to the ground fast. Nina will look to out strike her opponent. Look for her to use some clinch work and wear Randa down. I see Nina winning via KO.
Dustin Ortiz 18-7 vs Matheus Nicolau Pererra 13-1-1
Dustin has 7 KO/TKO 4 submissions and 7 decisions. Has 5 1st round wins. On a 2-fight win streak. Has wins over Zach Makovsky and Ray Borg. Has a brown belt in Jiu jitsu. His cardio is in top shape and has a gas tank for days.
Matheus has 4 KO/TKO 4 submissions and 5 decisions. He has won 6 of last 7 and is on a 3-fight win streak. Was on TUF Brazil 4 with Team Shogun. He has a black belt in Jiu jitsu. He also has 3 amateur boxing wins.
Both fighters coming in with win streaks. This will be a battle of who has the better ground game. Ortiz needs to push the pace and utilize his cardio. Matheus needs to use his boxing and setup his ground game to his advantage. I see Matheus with a win tonight.
Alexis Davis 19-7 vs Katlyn Chookagian 10-1
Alexis has 2 KO/TKO 8 submissions and 9 decisions. She has wins over Liz Carmouche (2 times), Shayna Baszler, and current champ Amanda Nunes. She has notable losses to Sara McMann and Ronda Rousey. She holds a black belt in both Brazilian Jiu jitsu and Japanese Jiu jitsu.
Katlyn has 2 KO/TKO 1 submission and 7 decisions. Her only loss is to Liz Carmouche. She has 2 1st round wins. At age 16 she became a Pennsylvania Golden Gloves Champ. She is a Renzo Gracie Brown Belt. She trains with Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza.
What a great fight between 2 decorated fighters. I expect to see some bombs being thrown and a lot of Jiu jitsu to occur. Alexis needs to get in the clinch and go for some throws. Katlyn needs to use her superior striking to set up her clinch game. This fight will go the distance and Katlyn with the win.
John Makdessi 15-6 vs Ross Pearson 20-14
John has 9 KO/TKO and 6 decisions. He has won 6 of his last 10. Has 5 1st round finishes. Has wins over Daron Cruickshank and Sam Stout. Has notable losses against Yancy Medeiros and Donald Cerrone. Has a Taekwondo and Karate background.
Ross has 7 KO/TKO 5 submissions and 8 decisions. He is 7-8 in his last 15 fights. Was the TUF Season 9 winner. He has wins over Paul Felder, Sam Stout, and Gray Maynard. He has a boxing and Muay Thai background.
Despite Ross clearly having more experience he is struggling to consistently put wins together. This may be a must win situation for him. Dustin could use another win over a well know guy to help advance his career. When the dust settles I see John with a KO over Ross.
Fox Prelims 6pm
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 20-4 vs Ion Cutelaba 13-3
Gadz has 4 KO/TKO 15 submissions and 1 decision. He is on an incredible 14 fight win streak. He has 17 1st round finishes. He has a very heavy wrestling background. With that he also has a vast array of submissions he can use. He has a Performance of the night bonus.
Ion has 10 KO/TKO 2 submissions and 1 decision. He has won 9 of his last 11. He has 11 1st round wins. 6 of his wins have occurred in less than 30 seconds. Has wrestling and sambo background. He has a Fight of the night bonus.
What an exciting fight. Another striker vs grappler. Ion will look to keep this standing as much as he can. As well versed he is in wrestling and sambo, Gadz is just so dominate on the ground. Look for Gadz for a big double leg takedown and work his way into a submission for his 15 wins in a row.
Kajan Johnson 23-11-1 vs Islam Makhacheu 15-1
Kajan has 5 KO/TKO 11 submissions and 7 decisions. He has won 6 of his last 7 and has a 4-fight win streak. He was on TUF Nations edition. He has a brown belt in Jiu jitsu. His favorite go to submission is the rear naked choke.
Islam has 3 KO/TKO 6 submissions and 6 decisions. He has a 3-fight win streak. He has a win over Nik Lentz. His coach is the father of Champ Khabib Nurmagomedov. He has 6 1st round finishes. He was a Combat Sambo World and European Champiom.
Good matchup for both fighters. Both have great winning streaks going. Both are equally skilled in standing and grappling. I see this fight going the distance and the win going to Kajan.
Hakeem Dawodu 7-1-1 vs Austin Arnett 15-4
Hakeem has 6 KO/TKO and 1 decision. He is coming off his 1st loss in his career. Has 2 1st round finishes. Has a Muay Thai and Kick Boxing background. Has many amateur and pro kickboxing titles. Has heavy heavy hands.
Austin has 6 KO/TKO 6 submissions and 3 decisions. Has a 2-fight losing streak. He has won 13 of last 15. He has 11 1st round wins. Has 6 wins in under 2 minutes. Holds a Black Belt in Shotokan Karate.
I see this fight as a mismatch. Hakeem is an up and coming fighter going against a veteran. Austin has a well-rounded game compared to Hakeem. I see Austin getting a win tonight via submission.
Jordan Mein 30-12 vs Alex Morono 14-4
Jordan has 16 KO/TKO 7 submissions and 7 decisions. Has 19 1st round wins. Notable wins over Eric Silva and Mike Pyle. His first Pro fight was a loss to Rory MacDonald. Has tons of speed and experience on his side. He has a Performance and Fight of the night bonuses.
Alex has 4 KO/TKO 6 submissions and 3 decisions and 1 no contest. Has wins over Josh Burkman and Kyle Noke. He is 8-1-1 in his last 10 fights. 9 1st round wins and 4 finishes under 90 seconds. Has great striking and grappling abilities.
Decent matchup for both fighters. Jordan definite has the experience over his opponent. But they do have similar fighting styles and stats. Should be a very interesting fight. I see Alex with an upset over the Veteran by a quick KO.
Main Card 8pm
Olvier Aubin Mercier 12-2 vs Alexander Hernandez 9-1
Olvier has 1 KO/TKO 9 submissions and 2 decisions. He has won 7 of his last 8 fights, which includes 4 in a row. Was a TUF Nations Finalist. Holds a black belt in judo and a brown belt in Jiu jitsu. He was a 2-time Junior National Judo Champion. Has a performance of the night bonus.
Alexander has 4 KO/TKO 2 submissions and 3 decisions. He has 5 1st round finishes. Is on an impressive 7 fight win streak. Has a notable win over Beneil Dariush which netted him a performance of the night bonus. Has been wrestling since he was 13 and was a State and National level wrestler in high school. He also has a brown belt in Jiu jitsu.
Great way to start the main card off. Very evenly matched. Look for Olvier to work to a clinch and utilize his judo to take the fight to the ground. Alexander will use strength and speed to take the fight to the ground. Once the fight hits the ground its evenly matched. I see Alexander racking up another victory in this fight.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk 14-2 vs Tecia Torres 10-2
Joanna has 4 KO/TKO 1 submission and 9 decisions. The former champ is coming in on a 2-fight losing streak to current Champ Rose Namajunas. She has wins over Jessica Andrade, Jessica Penne, Carla Esparaza, and Claudia Gadelhia. Was TUF 23 Coach. Was first women’s Strawweight Champ. Has been one of the most dominating fighters in UFC history. She has a heavy Muay Thai and Boxing BACKGROUND.
Tecia has 1 submission and 9 decision wins. She has won 3 of her last 4 fights. Has wins over Paige Van Zandt, Rose Namajunas, and Felice Herring. She holds a black belt in taekwondo and a blue belt in Jiu jitsu. She is a ground and pound specialist. She has explosive takedowns.
This will be an amazing fight. Joanna is looking to get back into the win column. She needs to avoid the takedowns and keep the fight standing. She will utilize the clinch and work in her Muay Thai. One thing she needs to keep in mind is that this fight is only a 3-round fight. She has been so used to having 5 rounds to finish her opponent. The sense of urgency needs to be picked up. Tecia needs to get inside and work to get Joanna to the ground. Once it goes to the control she needs to stay heavy and control the pace. I see this fight going all 3 rounds with Tecia getting an upset win.
Jose Aldo 26-4 vs Jeremy Stephens 28-14
Jose has 15 KO/TKO 1 submission and 10 decisions. He is 2-3 in his last 5 fights. He is coming into this fight with back to back losses against current Champ Max Holloway. He has notable wins over Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, and Kenny Florian. The former champ has been dominating the division since its inception. Many thinks that he doesn’t have what it takes to hang with the younger talent anymore. Stephens will be a big test for him.
Jeremy has 19 KO/TKO two submissions and seven decisions. He is 5-3 in his last 8 fights and is riding a 3-fight win streak. He has notable wins over Gilbert Melendez and Dennis Bermudez. Has legendary sparring sessions with team mate Josh Neer. He has heavy hands and likes to strike. He does hold a purple belt in Jiu jitsu. Jeremy has tons of heart and won’t quit.
This will be an explosive fight. Jose needs this win and get some momentum going. He is looking to get into the title picture and what a great way to do so with a big win over Stephens. He will need to use his speed and grappling to out work Stephens. Jeremy will look to keep the fight standing. Getting a win over the former champ will be a huge statement he can make and throw his name in the hat for a title shot.
Eddie Alvarez 29-5 vs Dustin Poirier 23-5
This fight is a rematch from their last encounter when it ended in a no contest. Dustin was dominating the fight in the 1st round. Then in the 2nd round the tables turned and Eddie came alive. He has able to take Dustin down and Dustin was in a tri-pod position and 1 hand was on the ground when Eddie started to throw knee strikes. This was deemed illegal as you can not knee a downed opponent. With that 1 hand being on the ground it was considered that Dustin was a downed opponent. Both really wanted a rematch as that fight was shaping up to be a war.
Eddie has 16 KO/TKO 7 submission and 6 decisions. He has 14 1st round finishes. He has won 14 of his last 18. He has wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez just to name a few. He has literally fought all over the world in countries like Japan, Canada, Costa Rica and Russia. He has a wrestling background. Is a brown belt in Jiu jitsu under Ricardo Almeida. Also likes to stand and box with people. He has heavy and fast hands.
Dustin has 11 KO/TKO 7 submissions and 5 decisions. He has won 10 of his last 13. He has 12 1st round wins. Has wins over Anthony Pettis and Yancy Medeiros. He is a black belt in Jiu jitsu. Has 2 performance of the night bonuses, 5 fight of the night bonuses and 1 submission of the night bonus. He can finish his opponents. He has finished all but 5 of his opponents.
This will be a great fight. The 1st time they fought it was shaping up to be an epic war with a rematch possible. Both fighters will try and keep it standing and wont force anything to the ground unless its an easy takedown. Dustin does need to avoid the big explosive takedown from Eddie. Both are matched evenly on the ground. Eddie needs to stay away from Dustin’s punching power and get it to the ground and put heavy pressure on him and make Dustin make a mistake. Dustin needs to push the pace and wear down Eddie as fast as he can. I see this fight going 3 out of 5 rounds with Dustin getting a KO over the former champ.