The Monster Mile comes beckoning this week as the second one-mile track of the season. Let’s not be fooled, this isn’t the run of the mill oval. The straightaways are banked at nine degrees and the corners are banked at 24 degrees all the way up to the wall and that doesn’t include the two-story drops from the top of the straightaway down into the entrance of the corners. The racing surface is concrete all the way around which makes it very sensitive to rubber and weather conditions throughout the race and the weekend. All of that combined with the new package in the cars this year make this a big-time challenge this week.

The surface, as alluded to above, really absorbs the rubber that the tires are a laying down which will make the surface change all the way to black by race’s end depending on how many cautions there. Every time there’s a caution the warm tires will pick up the chunks of rubber from the surface and make it greener for the restarts. Speaking of cautions, there have been an average of 8 cautions per race in the last 10 races at Dover and several of those have been huge as the tight confines make avoiding a wreck in front hard to do.

The 400 laps in the scheduled race length make laps led here a pretty big scoring category especially on DraftKings. In each of the last several Spring races here there have been two drivers in each race to lead over 100 laps. You can have position differential here even with how tough it is to pass as there are eight drivers in the field this week with a positive 5.0 or higher PD mark in the last five races here.

Prop Bet Challenge

  1. Three of the past five winners have started from the front row at Dover. Will Sunday’s winner start from the top two? Matt and I discussed on the podcast how difficult it is to pass at Dover due to the narrowness of the track. For this reason, the top three has notched quite a few wins at Dover, both in the spring and fall races. Chase Elliott and William Byron are on the front row to start today’s race. I have faith that Chase can pull out a win from the pole, but I’m significantly less confident in Byron. Alas, we’ll take the field and say No.

 

  1. O/U 15.5 stage points for Kevin Harvick in Sunday’s race? Harvick has looked awesome at Dover. But we’ve also said that about Harvick at other tracks this year: Atlanta, Vegas, Phoenix, etc. and we know how disappointing those races were. Last year, in both races, he finished first in all the stages and won one of the races at Dover. That’s right in four possible stages he finished first in each one. Now he hasn’t had the same success as he had last year, but it looks like his crew is figuring out the new aero package. 15.5 points is still a pretty good amount so I’m going to be conservative and take the Under.

 

  1. Daniel Suarez has never finished outside the top 10 at Dover in his four Cup starts. Does this streak continue? He’s starting 14th and Matt and I discussed how he is one of the few drivers you feel confident at Dover moving their way up through the field. Another top 10 at Dover is feasible for this guy so I’ll say Yes, the streak continues for Suarez.

 

  1. O/U 1.5 drivers well lead over 125 laps in Sunday’s race? This is really tricky because Matt mentioned on the podcast that it’s entirely likely we could see two guys lead over 100 laps on Sunday, but 125 is a little extra. If the mark were 100 I’d take the over because I do believe two drivers will lead over 100 laps. Asking both to lead over 125 is a more difficult read. Last year, Harvick was the only driver to lead over 125 laps in either race. Prior to that, both Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson managed to pull off this feat in the fall of 2017, while Larson was the only driver to lead over 125 laps in the summer race of that year. Going over the last 11 races at Dover this has only happened once. I’ll play the numbers here and say Under.

 

  1. Which driver finishes higher? Chase Elliott or Martin Truex Jr.? To be clear, both drivers are great at Dover. Chase won this race last fall and in six total races at Dover, he has five top 5 finishes and he’s starting on the pole for Sunday’s race. In Truex’s last 11 races at Dover he hasn’t finished worse than 15th and in total he has 14 Top 10’s and two wins at Dover. He’s finished in the top 5 in four of his last five races here. However, while Elliott’s on the pole, Truex is starting 13th. I don’t think that’s too big of a knock and I feel like most people are going to take Elliott because he’s starting first and coming off a win at Talladega. I’ll go contrarian and take Truex.

 

  1. O/U 33.5 race points for Jimmie Johnson in Sunday’s race? I really don’t know how to read JJ this year. In three of the last four races he hit that mark easily. Last fall, however, I think he had only one point. And he hasn’t looked like his usual self this season. But again, like Harvick, he has a great track record here. 33.5 is a reasonable number to be fair if he can lock up stage points, but I feel like he’d need to get points in both stages. I’m going to take the Over with some trepidation. Hell, if he wins it that’s 40 points right there and we’re in the green. But I doubt he wins today.

 

  1. Two of the past four Dover races have finished in NASCAR Overtime. Will Sunday’s race go beyond the scheduled 400 laps? I’m not going to look too into this trend. It just strikes me as a bit fluky and I’m assuming we get just 400 laps on Sunday so I will say No.

 

  1. The last six Dover races have seen an average of 12.3 drivers finished on the lead lap. O/U 12.5 lead lap finishers on Sunday? This is tough because anything could happen. Speeds are up across practice and qualifying and the lack of room to pass could lead to more wrecks and cautions that could put an extra driver back on the lead lap (while also taking out a few). We saw it at Daytona and Talladega with drivers trying to make moves late. I’ll be optimistic and take the Over knowing this is a somewhat tall order.

 

  1. Chevrolet drivers have won eight of the last 12 Dover races. Will a Chevrolet driver go to Victory Lane on Sunday? So this bodes well for drivers like Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, William Byron, Daniel Hemric, and a few others. Matt did talk about how Chevy’s have run really well at this track in recent memory. I feel there are only a couple real threats out of this group: Elliott, Busch, and Johnson but you could make the argument for anyone here. Now the only reason I’m going to say No is because I already took the field against Chase Elliott and William Byron in the first prop question listed above. So to remain consistent and double down on this a bit, I’m going to pick a Ford or Toyota to win, which I know is going against the grain a bit based on recent history.

 

  1. O/U 16.5 lead changes in Sunday’s race? Again, we may not see too many lead changes or passing since it’s harder at Dover. 400 laps does lead to the possibility of more lead changes, but I’ll go conservative and take the Under.

Stacks

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