After an off week, we’re back baby! And at ‘Dega to boot! There’s nothing like a race at Talladega, except maybe Daytona, in terms of unpredictability and all out craziness that can unfold over the 188 laps around the superspeedway.

This is also a unique week because, for the most part, practice speeds don’t matter for the race. Yes, there is a lot of speed involved, a simple look at the practice charts on NASCAR.com will show you that but most of those speeds, if not all, were set in a draft as much of the race will be run in come Sunday. It’s also a race that generally requires you to leave a ton of money on the table in terms of salary to get a winning lineup and by a ton, I mean $8,000-$12,000. If you listen to the podcast the strategy behind that is explained in more detail.

For as much as this is an unpredictable race, 24 of 99 winners have come from the top-two starting spots with a bunch others coming from the top-10 in the grid. So trying to get a driver or two from the top-10 in your lineups to start is a good idea while filling in with guys further back in the pack who you hope can move up while avoiding the big one, a wreck that can take out as much as half the field at once.

The guys listed in the playbook have been the best plate racers historically, but anyone is in play this week even if they’re not listed. I just can’t list all 40 guys in the field. Anyone of the cheap guys is fine too and an interesting tidbit that’s pretty cool involves Stanton Barrett who is one of the most accomplished stuntmen in Hollywood and races as a hobby.

Prop Bet Challenge

  1. In his career, Ryan Blaney has scored stage points in every Talladega stage. Will his streak continue? Yes. He’s on Team Penske. Penske runs well at Talladega. All he has to do is finish Top 10 in either stage. That’s well within reach and he’s starting seventh.

 

  1. The last six races at Talladega have seen an average of 26.3 lead changes. O/U 26.5 lead changes for Sunday’s race? I’m going to go conservative and take the Under. It’s more of a gut feeling, but with 188 laps I find it hard to believe we’ll get 27 lead changes.

 

  1. Which driver will finish higher? David Ragan or Chris Buescher? Ragan is starting 15th, but Buescher is starting 31st, which is a big gap. I am going to take Buescher which means he’ll have to make up a ton of ground over 188 laps, but if he can avoid the big wreck and Ragan maybe gets caught up in it then Buescher comes out on top. Don’t forget, Buescher finished Top 10 at Daytona.

 

  1. Team Penske has won four of the last six Talladega races. Will they in on Sunday? Normally I’d advise to take the field. But I need to play catch up and while taking the field is smart, taking Penske is also chalky given how good Penske has been at Talladega. I’m going to say YES and cheer exclusively for Logano, Keselowski, and Blaney today.

 

  1. O/U Ford will have 5.5 drivers finish in the Top 10 at Talladega? I’m taking the  Over which seems bold but there are only three makes in NASCAR and this seems safe given the Penske cars are Fords and they should easily finish Top 10. Mix in Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Daniel Suarez, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and a few others and six Fords in the Top 10 is in play.

 

  1. Which driver will score more overall race points? Brad Keselowski or Joey Logano? This is tough because they could both win the race and it’s splitting hairs really. Penske drivers run really well at Talladega so these are two you can easily stack at this track in DFS. I’ll take Joey Logano over Brad Keselowski, but I won’t argue with you if you take BK.

 

  1. O/U Kurt Busch scores 6.5 stage points at Talladega? I’m going to take the Over. Busch has accumulated stage points in his last four races at Talladega and last year he finished first after stage one and third after stage two. Busch getting at least seven points seems safe.

 

  1. Will Sunday’s race winner start outside the Top 15? I’m going to say No. Some of the best plate racers on the track are in the Top 15. If you think Kyle Busch gets another win then you can oblige this answer and say yes. But I like the names in the Top 15 especially the Penske drivers so I’ll say no.

 

  1. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. leads all active drivers with an average finish of 10.6. Does he finish in the Top 10 this weekend? This is a great track for Stenhouse and he qualified sixth and he’s a good restrictor plate racer as Matt noted in the Playbook and the podcast. If he’s causing the Big One then hopefully he can avoid it as well. YES Stenhouse will finish in the Top Ten.

 

  1. Will Sunday’s race winner lead O/U 10.5 laps? Talladega features only 188 laps, but 10.5 isn’t a lot to ask for. Logano won here a year ago and led 70 laps and when Ricky Stenhouse won the Spring race two years ago he led 14 laps. 10.5 seems generous so we can take the OVER.

 

Stacks

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