It’s Bristol baby!! Short track racing is back and at one of the best arenas for it in the world. And yes I do mean arena given the 160,000 seating capacity and its nickname of “The Last Great Colosseum.” Bumping and running will be prevalent here and tempers will most definitely flare.

At .533 miles per lap, it’s the second-shortest track on the NASCAR Cup circuit and it’s one of the most banked as well with 26-30 degrees of tilt in the corners and 6-10 in the straights. The banking allows for higher speeds than a track of this size should ordinarily allow for. The concrete racing surface is just wide enough for two cars to run in two distinct racing grooves so long as the traction compound is warmed up and not slick like it was at Texas last week.

Track position that we’ve all grown accustomed to hearing so much about this season will be of the utmost import this week as you’ll see in the starting positions table down below. It is possible for drivers to move up through the field here though with nine drivers having a positive five position differential or higher in the last five spring races at Bristol. Over the last 10 races at Bristol, there has been an average of 10.3 cautions per race which also helps with drivers moving up through the field.

Starting Positions for Race Winners

Starting Pos.Races Won
125
213
39
49
510
69
71
87
96
102
111
125
134
142
151
182
193
201
242
261
271
301
381

The above table pretty well shows that starting up front better guarantees a race win as 25 winners have come from the pole. Most recently Kyle Busch did that in this race last year while Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth both did it in 2016 and 2015 respectively. Overall, there have been 116 races at Bristol with 66 races being won from the first five starting spots.

Track Data

Drivers To Watch

Last Five Food City 500s

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Jimmie Johnson514.613.29.6513334
Kyle Busch4515.325.8-20.811111
Ricky Stenhouse Jr520.213.6713.203445
Kyle Larson513.210.6121.201444
Clint Bowyer522.217913.201355
Ryan Newman517.414.210.86.601345
Joey Logano55.618.816.8-11.201334
Kevin Harvick517.49.418.8-1.401333
Aric Almirola522.41715.66.801233
Chase Elliott312.318.713.3-101222
Alex Bowman32724.319801112
Kurt Busch512.616.220-7.401122
Denny Hamlin510.21515.2-500234
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Austin Dillon51916.815400144
Matt DiBenedetto42723.316.810.200112
Martin Truex Jr516.418.623.4-700122
Paul Menard516.814.815.21.600034
Daniel Suarez217.51614.5300012
Brad Keselowski54.618.424.8-20.200012
Bubba Wallace1201316400001
William Byron1111518-700001
Erik Jones213.51321.5-800001
Ty Dillon33022.322.77.300011
Ryan Blaney39.714.326.3-16.600011
David Ragan52228.629.2-7.200011
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Landon Cassill52727.429.4-2.400001
Corey LaJoie234.528.524.51000000
Chris Buescher42729.330.3-3.300000
Michael McDowell522.228.630.4-8.200000
Reed Sorenson435.83332 00000
Ross Chastain1273139-1200000
Quin Houff0000000000
Bayley Currey0000000000
Cody Ware0000000000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Joey Gase0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Jimmie Johnson51252513426.863%101.52511
Kyle Busch419047.510726.860%91.71637
Ricky Stenhouse Jr500751567%882514
Kyle Larson549298.424849.679%110.82476
Clint Bowyer551224.446%77.72514
Ryan Newman500214.261%83.32514
Joey Logano58917.86913.855%91.32452
Kevin Harvick523947.823446.886%106.82418
Aric Almirola500214.244%72.92490
Chase Elliott3004113.749%78.31473
Alex Bowman300175.729%66.11501
Kurt Busch516733.47414.850%832473
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Denny Hamlin5183.630662%83.52507
Austin Dillon50015344%74.12511
Matt DiBenedetto400004%58.32506
Martin Truex Jr511623.211923.846%78.42433
Paul Menard540.8122.456%77.22509
Daniel Suarez252.512646%75998
Brad Keselowski510721.48116.253%762420
Bubba Wallace1662264%73.2499
William Byron1004452%69.7498
Erik Jones2002914.560%83.2993
Ty Dillon30010.318%56.11474
Ryan Blaney310033.33712.344%811069
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
David Ragan50030.66%49.52138
Landon Cassill525530.610%50.52240
Corey LaJoie200000%44991
Chris Buescher40030.83%41.51174
Michael McDowell50020.40%39.91974
Reed Sorenson400000%36.10
Ross Chastain100000%23.23
Quin Houff00000000
Bayley Currey00000000
Cody Ware00000000
Daniel Hemric00000000
Joey Gase00000000
Matt Tifft00000000
Ryan Preece00000000

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races At Bristol

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Joey Logano107.513.111.3-3.824789
Kyle Busch95.613.923-17.422334
Jimmie Johnson1013.9128.35.615789
Kurt Busch1012.913.416.3-3.414466
Kevin Harvick1015.48.912.62.813788
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1018.116.110.27.904678
Denny Hamlin108.113.713.9-5.803578
Kyle Larson1014.411.714.8-0.402677
Clint Bowyer101916.112.36.702579
Chase Elliott68.212.712.7-4.502345
Erik Jones410.58.812.5-202223
Ryan Newman1016.814.312.34.501589
Austin Dillon1018.418.717.21.201277
Brad Keselowski107.516.821-13.501235
Aric Almirola1023.820.921.8201245

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Joey Logano1047447.4018718.7071%101.2
Kyle Busch980289.1137942.1162%100.3
Jimmie Johnson1012512.5022222.2072%97.9
Kurt Busch1019119.1014514.5066%89.6
Kevin Harvick1045045.0047747.7084%109.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1000.0015115.1048%82.8
Denny Hamlin1011911.9014114.1069%91.8
Kyle Larson1057957.9037037.0074%100.7
Clint Bowyer1012512.50777.7052%79.6
Chase Elliott612821.3311919.8369%92.2
Erik Jones426065.0011228.0080%102.4
Ryan Newman10111.10424.2065%82.3
Austin Dillon1000.00242.4041%69.6
Brad Keselowski1015715.7014214.2059%79
Aric Almirola1020.20616.1032%68.4

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 20 Similar Races (Bristol and Dover)

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Jimmie Johnson2013.112.210.52.6410141516
Kevin Harvick2011.19.112.2-1.136121517
Kyle Busch194.811.520.5-15.7358810
Joey Logano209.911.811.5-1.626121617
Chase Elliott129.510.48.51.01781011
Kurt Busch2012.513.416.7-4.21771014
Martin Truex Jr2011.512.115.3-3.81491213
Kyle Larson2011.611.611.7-0.106131616
Denny Hamlin207.412.413.2-5.805111416
Clint Bowyer2018.215.413.54.704101416
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2017.41915.71.70481215
Brad Keselowski207.913.616-8.10481114
Aric Almirola1921.319.519.22.1034911
Erik Jones810.810.812.4-1.603357
Ryan Newman2015.616.1150.60271117

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Jimmie Johnson2052626.362231.175%100.2
Kevin Harvick20174787.4112756.481%112.8
Kyle Busch19108156.963433.473%102.1
Joey Logano2048324.224712.477%97.1
Chase Elliott1227723.121918.382%98.6
Kurt Busch201919.624712.470%87.5
Martin Truex Jr2063431.752026.066%95.7
Kyle Larson20104252.159429.773%99.9
Denny Hamlin2025212.623611.873%92.3
Clint Bowyer201738.720810.456%83.3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr20341.71869.340%74.9
Brad Keselowski2047523.832616.368%88.6
Aric Almirola19663.51377.237%72.3
Erik Jones826032.513316.675%93.9
Ryan Newman20120.6964.850%78.1

Team Averages At Bristol (Since Feb. 2017)

 Avg.  TopTop
TeamFinishRacesWins510
Chip Ganassi Racing11.388024
Joe Gibbs Racing12.4416267
Roush Fenway Racing138013
Stewart-Haas Racing13.38161410
Hendrick Motorsports1516147
Richard Childress Racing15.410002
Team Penske17.510024

Momentum

These tables keep track of the last five races of the 2019 season and who's hot and who's not in that span.

Driver

Driver Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Kyle Busch585.23.64.424555130.4
Denny Hamlin54.47.65.6-1.213555108.1
Brad Keselowski510.414.212.2-1.813334100.2
Joey Logano57.289.8-2.612335105.3
Ryan Blaney510.811.614.2-3.403333103.6
Kevin Harvick57.67.46.21.402555106.6
Aric Almirola5138.47.25.801555100.1
Martin Truex Jr517.4107.69.80145596.8
Kurt Busch522.811.87.8150145592.3
Chase Elliott56.49.89.8-3.40125597.9
Daniel Suarez516.614.413.23.40123483.5
Clint Bowyer517.413.814.430124485.3
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Jimmie Johnson59.412.214.6-5.20122483.9
Erik Jones5151819-40112371
Ricky Stenhouse Jr51615.614.81.20013473.9
Austin Dillon510.412.815.2-4.80013481.4
William Byron51715.816.60.40012374.9
Kyle Larson516.216.817.4-1.20013475.1
Paul Menard5171617.2-0.20002571
Chris Buescher518.819.218.20.60000460.7
Ryan Newman518.418.618.400002263.4
Alex Bowman51617.819.8-3.80002369
Ty Dillon516.222.621-4.80002258.8
Matt DiBenedetto524.420.222.61.80000258.4
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Bubba Wallace521.623.423.6-20000152
Ryan Preece522.624.424-1.40000150
David Ragan521.425.425.8-4.40000046.2
Matt Tifft531.427.826.64.80000141.9
Daniel Hemric513.62326.8-13.20000156.5
Michael McDowell52225.827.2-5.20001148.1
Parker Kligerman232.529293.50000042.1
Corey LaJoie529.429.4290.40000039.4
Quin Houff135333050000028
Ross Chastain533.43130.23.20000036.9
Landon Cassill53131.230.40.60000035.9
DJ Kennington135323230000029.2
Bayley Currey236343330000028.9
Cody Ware433.534.533.8-0.30000028.8
Garrett Smithley237.535343.50000029
Reed Sorenson336.33534.71.60000028.6
BJ McLeod334.73635-0.30000028.3
Joey Gase2373736.50.50000024.4
Timmy Hill1393838 0000024.2

Team

Team Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Chip Ganassi Racing1019.514.312.66.901589
Front Row Motorsports1524.926.326.5-1.600012
Hendrick Motorsports2012.213.915.2-30251115
Joe Gibbs Racing2011.210.292.339151718
JTG Daugherty Racing1020.721.821.1-0.400005
Richard Childress Racing101217.921-900135
Roush Fenway Racing1017.217.116.60.600156
Stewart-Haas Racing2013.71110.33.405141718
Team Penske159.511.312.1-2.6289912

DraftKings Scoring Averages Last Five Food City 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch104.25-7.5-20.5 17.7548.3823.5070.17
Brad Keselowski31.25-1529-19368.1312.4557.17
Kurt Busch6.5982.256137.7532.3549.56
Kevin Harvick79.560.579.75552170.0059.1549.36
Denny Hamlin484511.5-2.536.546.5027.7045.22
Joey Logano38.2575.534-281756.8827.3544.28
Martin Truex Jr10104.5355257.2531.3043.39
Chase Elliott3.540.565.5  22.0036.5042.78
Aric Almirola52.519-248.568.535.7537.3041.89
Ryan Blaney15.5-10.541.5  2.5015.5039.19
Kyle Larson150.5110.559552130.5082.6037.61
Clint Bowyer4552.56461.530.2548.7550.6536.94
Daniel Suarez35.2537   36.1336.1333.36
Jimmie Johnson6896.7515.576.541.582.3859.6532.56
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Erik Jones7.536   21.7521.7532
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5551.54665.570.553.2557.7031.47
Ryan Newman5732.543522544.7541.9030.17
Austin Dillon374173849.539.0034.5030
William Byron21    21.0021.0028.56
Chris Buescher-5.5-6.523.532 -6.0010.8827.62
Ty Dillon2038.528  29.2528.8327
Paul Menard26392934.530.532.5031.8026.75
Alex Bowman50.5  441350.5035.8325.75
Matt DiBenedetto26386224 32.0037.5024.97
Ross Chastain-7    -7.00-7.0024.56
Ryan Preece       22.94
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Corey LaJoie2831   29.5029.5020.44
Matt Tifft       20.31
Quin Houff       19
David Ragan4331-9.5-26137.007.9018.81
Bubba Wallace34.5    34.5034.5018.06
Landon Cassill3311.7534-251522.3813.7518.03
Michael McDowell-232017.519-5.5-1.505.6016.94
Bayley Currey       14.25
Joey Gase       13.67
Daniel Hemric       12.91
Cody Ware       11.5

 

FanDuel Scoring Averages Last Five Food City 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch104.730.312.3 57.967.5051.3066.74
Brad Keselowski64.235.37038.475.349.7556.6459.89
Kurt Busch58.660.4103.682.845.159.5070.1063.13
Kevin Harvick10092.985.351.243.896.4574.6460.02
Denny Hamlin82.885635583.283.9073.8060.89
Joey Logano82.693.277.929.264.287.9069.4259.38
Martin Truex Jr54.892.17455.948.673.4565.0857.30
Chase Elliott52.881.594.5  67.1576.2755.44
Aric Almirola91.566.748.987.698.379.1078.6057.89
Ryan Blaney12.739.783.5  26.2045.3050.69
Kyle Larson112102.747.297.686.3107.3589.1650.78
Clint Bowyer8693.59792.676.889.7589.1853.18
Daniel Suarez8175.3   78.1578.1551.84
Jimmie Johnson95106.159.4104.172.5100.5587.4253.04
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Erik Jones57.972.4   65.1565.1551.13
Ricky Stenhouse Jr87878398.699.887.0091.0854.93
Ryan Newman9176.58693.671.883.7583.7851.11
Austin Dillon78.98259.383.187.880.4578.2250.22
William Byron69.3    69.3069.3050.48
Chris Buescher9.61.37073 5.4538.4850.76
Ty Dillon62.580.570.4  71.5071.1349.88
Paul Menard74.979.975.980.173.577.4076.8648.59
Alex Bowman87.5  81.858.887.5076.0346.87
Matt DiBenedetto71.278.39771.3 74.7579.4547.20
Ross Chastain-3.7    -3.70-3.7042.66
Ryan Preece       45.23
Corey LaJoie69.972.2   71.0571.0542.93
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Matt Tifft       42.45
Quin Houff       43.70
David Ragan84.572.715.629.553.578.6051.1643.61
Bubba Wallace77.5    77.5077.5042.91
Landon Cassill75.354.37416.861.164.8056.3039.54
Michael McDowell-10.665.462.568.244.427.4045.9838.88
Bayley Currey       40.55
Joey Gase       18.83
Daniel Hemric       37.64
Cody Ware       27.23

 

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race Hist, Bristol History, Track Type History, columns are ranked on average finish in given spans. Scoring columns are ranked highest scoring to lowest scoring average.

DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Bristol HistoryTrack Type History
Kyle Busch$12,900$15,0002492121252119
Brad Keselowski$12,200$13,40023252626231713
Kevin Harvick$11,600$14,300163331476
Joey Logano$11,100$14,0001355201934
Kurt Busch$10,700$11,50018262514181214
Ryan Blaney$10,300$11,40025272824282020
Martin Truex Jr$9,800$12,0002141716222211
Kyle Larson$9,500$13,00051113105
Denny Hamlin$9,200$12,3009108191598
Chase Elliott$8,900$11,8006222291281
Clint Bowyer$8,600$11,0002845249
Aric Almirola$8,300$10,600111511871917
Jimmie Johnson$8,000$9,7003222412
Erik Jones$7,800$10,200192323222167
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,600$9,00016741212
DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Bristol HistoryTrack Type History
Alex Bowman$7,400$8,500177611131823
Daniel Suarez$7,300$8,10071413109113
Austin Dillon$7,200$7,700812101281316
Ryan Newman$7,000$7,500411965410
Paul Menard$6,900$7,0009171515111418
William Byron$6,800$7,30015242023201515
Matt DiBenedetto$6,700$6,500131816761626
Ryan Preece$6,500$6,00040404040404040
Chris Buescher$6,400$6,20028292927292321
Bubba Wallace$6,200$5,00012161412102623
DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Bristol HistoryTrack Type History
Daniel Hemric$6,000$6,30040404040404040
Ty Dillon$5,800$5,50020201818162422
Ross Chastain$5,700$4,00030303030303030
David Ragan$5,600$5,00026131228262525
Matt Tifft$5,500$4,00040404040404040
Michael McDowell$5,400$4,50029282729272727
Landon Cassill$5,300$5,00027212425242928
Corey LaJoie$5,200$3,50022191917172829
Quin Houff$5,100$3,00040404040404040
Joey Gase$5,000$2,50040404040403131
Cody Ware$4,900$2,50040404040404032
Bayley Currey$4,800$3,00040404040404040