It’s here, it’s finally here! The 2019 NASCAR season kicks off this weekend with the Daytona 500, the biggest race of the year. There has been quite the lead up to this year’s race with a new aero package announced for this season and a new car body in the Cup level, the Ford Mustang, and a ton of big-name drivers switched teams in the offseason. While all that did happen, the track at Daytona International Speedway didn’t change.

The 2.5-mile track has turns banked at an incredibly steep 31 degrees with the tri-oval of the front stretch being tilted at 18 degrees. The speeds, even with restrictor plates on the cars, still top 200 mph on every lap and when the draft pack gets going they can go well over it. Those speeds and the pack racing cause chaos though and there is always at least one big wreck during this race which can take out a hefty percentage of cars. For example, last year only 25 cars were running at the conclusion of the race. So what does that mean for fantasy? Simple, focus on guys in the back of the pack for the bulk of your lineups. That sounds counterintuitive to most weeks, but here the name of the game is all about position differential upside and tossing in a few laps led as a bonus.

For full stat breakdowns check out the Track Breakdown published earlier this week and the Practice Notes will help you with who has run faster than qualifying spots indicate.

Props Challenge

So we’ve got a fun Props Challenge over on NASCAR's Fantasy Games and we’re going to be giving it coverage each and every week with some picks of our own with some insight behind the decision making process. Best of luck in all your NASCAR season-long and DFS contests this year! Let’s kick off this season in the green! The analysis for the picks is done by Dan Malin so make sure to give him credit when you all win something.

  1. There will be MORE than 23 lead changes. This is a tough one because in general, lead changes were down in 2018. Across the board in all the races last year there were an average of 17.6 lead changes per race, by far the lowest we had seen in the last 20 years. But here’s a breakdown of the lead changes over the last five Daytona 500’s:

2018 – 24

2017 – 37

2016 – 20

2015 – 27

2014 – 42

                So only once over the last five years were there fewer than 23 lead changes. I’ll take the

                Logical OVER on this and say this prop will be TRUE.

  1. Which driver will have a higher finish? Brad Keselowski or Joey Logano? Well if basing it off starting position alone the logical answer is Logano. He’s starting fourth while Keselowski is back in 35th. While Keselowski’s starting spot makes him a great play in DFS, this is strictly between him and Logano and both guys are great restrictor plate drivers. They’re both 8-to-1 favorites to win the whole thing, but I’m expecting Logano to continue the momentum from last year’s Monster Energy Series championship. Joey Logano finishes higher than Brad Keselowski.
  2. William Byron will be the race leader for O/U 22.5 total laps. I’m going to take the UNDER here. Take a look at the last few pole winners at the 500:

2018 – Alex Bowman (13 laps led)

2017 – Chase Elliott (39 laps led)

2016 – Chase Elliott (3 laps led)

2015 – Jeff Gordon (87 laps led)

2014 – Austin Dillon (1 lap led)

                It’s really a boom-or-bust approach. And sure, Chad Knaus is a great crew chief to have

                in this race, but Byron’s going to have some very fast Ford’s right behind him from the

                start with Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick in the second row. I don’t expect Byron to lead

                11% of the 200 laps at Daytona this weekend.

  1. Will the race winner car number be an odd or even number? I’m predicting a win for Team Penske this weekend. So I’m going to say it’ll be an EVEN-numbered car, which is nice because Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney are each in an even-numbered vehicle. But this also keeps the door open for someone like Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Aric Almirola, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, Alex Bowman, Kyle, Larson, or William Byron to potentially help you out if they win. All those drivers, along with a few others, are driving an even number.
  2. Will the starting position of the race winner be O/U 6.5? If you’re taking the under you’re basically hoping William Byron, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., or Clint Bowyer will win. And all those names are decent contenders. However, in the rest of the field there are some solid contenders this week and the other two Penske drivers (Keselowski and Blaney) are among that field. I’ll play it safe here by taking the field and I’ll go OVER.
  3. Will the race winner also have a Stage win? Since NASCAR introduced these stages, no stage winner has gone on to win Daytona. But it’s a relatively small sample size to be fair. In 2017 the two stage winners, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, ended up finishing 38th and 22nd respectively. Last year Kurt Busch and Ryan Blaney were the two stage winners and they ended up finishing 26th and 7th overall. So in its short sample size, three of the four drivers that have won a stage ultimately finished outside the top 20. I thought deeply about going contrarian for this pick and saying yes, but I can’t in good faith answer in the affirmative. No, the race winner will NOT have a stage win.
  4. Will Martin Truex Jr. finish in the Top 5? It hasn’t been a great run for Truex at the 500. In 14 races he has just one Top 5 finish (2016 when he finished 2nd), but he did finish 6th back in 2010 and 8th in 2015. I’ll go contrarian here and say YES he finishes Top 5. Daytona gets two races each year so while the 500 has been difficult at times for him, he did finish second behind his now-current teammate Erik Jones at the Coke Zero Sugar 400 last July. Given his track record he could easily finish outside the Top 20, but he’s still one of the better drivers on the track and I think he has a strong showing on Sunday.
  5. There will be MORE than 12 different race leaders. I really wish they had specified “12 or more” different race leaders because I’d be all over that. 2018 saw 14 different leaders, 2017 saw 18, 2016 saw 15, and 2015 saw 12. So 12 is a pretty reasonable number for this race and each of the last four races have seen at least a dozen different leaders. I’ll go with the flow and say YES there will be more than 12 different race leaders.
  6. Which driver will have a higher finishing position? Austin Dillon or Daniel Hemric? Dillon is starting nine spots ahead of Hemric on Sunday and he’s also the reigning Daytona 500 Champion. Over Dillon’s last five races in the 500 he has five Top 20’s and three Top 10’s. He’s also run well at Daytona during the July race. Not too many people are familiar with Daniel Hemric. He’s a 27-year-old rookie that Matt Selz wrote up in his Changes For The 2019 Season article over a week ago. But Hemric has talent and he could make some noise. Over his last two seasons at the Xfinity level he finished in the Top 5 in 23 out of 66 races. On Sunday Dillon will be starting 20th while Hemric is 29th. At their starting points Dillon might be at a greater risk of wrecking since he’s driving closer to the middle of the pack, but we’ll play it safe with this prop and say Austin Dillon finishes ahead of Daniel Hemric. Try not to get too cute with this one.
  7. Will Ryan Blaney finish in the Top 10? This is a no-brainer for me. I’m very high on Ryan Blaney this week. I talked him up in the podcast, he’ll be in a majority of my lineups, he’s driving one of new Ford Mustang models, he’s a good restrictor plate racer and he ran well at the 500 last season. I think Blaney could win and already thought he was a good candidate to finish in the Top 5. I’ll easily say YES he’ll finish in the Top 10 on Sunday. He’ll be starting 14th, but as long as he can avoid an early crash I think a Top 10 finish is in the makings for Blaney.

Stacks

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