After the last two weeks of Daytona and Kentucky, we get another unique track this week in the “Magic Mile.” The 1-mile configuration isn’t exactly unique as there are two other tracks of that length on the schedule in Phoenix (ISM) and Dover, however what is different is the flatness of the track. Straightaways at New Hampshire are banked at just one degree while the turns are banked between two and seven degrees from the inside groove outward. Loudon, as it’s also known, for the town it’s actually located in, is a pure oval track in the shape of Martinsville, just twice the length.
The flatness of the track makes passing typically challenging as it generally reduces the grooves the drivers can use throughout the race and a lot of single-file racing follows. That being said, strategies can be employed on pit road to jump up in the pack as has been done in three of the last five races with winners coming from 1, 8, 19, 18, 13 in that span. In the 46 total races at NHMS, the winner has been the pole sitter and 24 of the 46 overall have started inside the top-10. Laps led and fastest laps will be an important focus this week as passing is tough and so if you get the lead, you can rack up the dominator points fairly easily.
There are a few guys that specialize in position differential at this track and they should be in your lineup depending on their starting spots and practice showing, but for the most part that hasn’t been the be-all-end-all for them in year’s past. One other interesting note is that there are six active drivers with three wins apiece at New Hampshire.
Tight racing and not many places to go lead to several incident cautions per race, 6.5 per in the last four here and nearly nine a race in the four before those. Now with the addition of the stage racing it gives even more chances to pull off pit road contrarian pit road strategies to gain track position.
Playbook
Kyle Busch
DK: $11,600 FD: $12,500
Busch has been one of the best drivers on the track every time the Cup series comes to New Hampshire. A win, two top-fives, three top-10s and 418 laps led are his record in the last four races with the win coming in the playoff race last September. The last 10 races have been fruitful as well with two wins, six top-fives, eight top-10s, 629 laps led and 328 fastest laps. His average driver rating in the last four is the highest in the field of 129 and his 220 fastest laps are the best as well. Busch has been in the top-five of speeds at every practice and fifth in 10-lap average in the second practice. Missing the front row but less than a tenth of an MPH increases his value by a tad. He is pricey, but there is still plenty of value at this price point as he’s second in FPPK on DK.
Martin Truex Jr.
DK: $11,300 FD: $12,700
This is another home track for Truex, just like Dover and Pocono and Watkins Glen are as well. His dad and brother and he have raced here for years and all have wins in various series, except for Martin in the Cup series, but that’s not for a lack of trying. In the last four trips, he’s posted two top-fives, three top-10s, 513 laps led, and 198 faster laps in that span. in the last 10 races he has two top-fives, five top-10s, eight top-15s, and 611 laps led, giving him the most laps led of anyone, without having a win in the history of NHMS. The 78-team has unloaded another fast car this week as he’s been near or at the top of the charts speed-wise all week.
Kevin Harvick
DK: $11,100 FD: $12,300
Harvick has the résumé you’d expect from him with a win, three top-fives, three top-10s, eight laps led, and 62 fastest laps. Though the eight laps led is a small total for an elite guy of Harvick’s ilk. His totals get better over the last 10 races with a win, five top-fives, six top-10s, and 387 laps led, third best in that span, with an average rating of 102.5, fifth best in the field in that span. Harvick qualified P14 to start the race but has run much faster than that at practice including the best 10-lap average in the final practice, and it came late in the run too. He should be a highly played option this week for both lineups.
Denny Hamlin
DK: $10,000 FD: $11,500
Hamlin won this race a year ago and has an additional top-10 and three more top-15s in the last four races plus 59 laps led and 62 fastest laps. In the final practice he was able to stick among the cars most believe are the cars to beat this weekend, and in fact he was atop the charts at times as well. With three career wins at the track, one in the last 10 along with two top-fives, and four top-10s, he is a big-time threat to win his fourth this weekend while starting P4 but having run in the top-five all weekend. At $1,100 and $800 less than the three listed above him on the two sites respectively, his price tag is very intriguing for both lineups.
Kyle Larson
DK: $9,900 FD: $11,000
Larson has two top-fives, three top-10s, and 76 fastest laps in the last four races. What really stands out though is the +8.2 position differential in that span. That mark is second in the field for drivers with at least three races since 2016, only behind Clint Bowyer. That is a remarkable figure on a track that doesn’t allow for that type of passing. In this race a year ago, he started near the back and drove up to a second place finish. He won’t have to do that this year having qualified P20 but running faster than that at each practice and posting a ninth and 10th best 10-lap average in the Saturday practices. With his starting spot and his history of moving up through the field for average finish of 7.8 he should be in any lineup format you want to put him in.
Brad Keselowski
DK: $9,700 FD: $10,700
Keselowski has the third-best average finish in the field over the last four races with an 8.0 mark. That’s due to his two top-fives, three top-10s, and four top-15s in that span along with three laps led and 42 fastest laps. If that’s not good enough, his last 10 races at Loudon showoff a win, five top-fives, seven top-10s, and 10 top-15s with 339 laps led and 320 fastest laps with the second-best average finish at 6.9. Keselowski qualified P6 for Sunday’s race but ran a bit slower than that in single lap speeds at practice but around there in 10-lap averages. He is suitable for cash or GPP lineups.
Joey Logano
DK: $9,400 FD: $10,200
One top-five, two top-10s, three top-15s and 19 laps led are his somewhat disappointing record here in the last four races at New Hampshire. In the last 10 though he’s got a win, four top-fives, five top-10s, 89 laps led, and 83 fastest laps which is better. He did get his first Cup series win at Loudon back in 2009 at just 19 years and one month old (the youngest ever Cup series winner). Logano qualified P19 for Sunday but has run at least 10 spots faster than that in practice and does have a decent PD here of his career. Low-end top-end pricing makes him appetizing for any lineup.
Clint Bowyer
DK: $9,200 FD: $10,400
Bowyer is the driver with the best position differential in the field of +11 but his only notable finishes are the two top-10s he’s had in the last four races without anything else of note. In the past 10 races he’s got three top-10s and five top-15s with 41 laps led in that span.This week he has shown better speed with a P15 qualifying spot and running just outside the top-10 at practice and about that same spot in 10-lap averages. If he can once more move up like previously, there’s hope for a 5th-10th place finish this week but that’s about it from Bowyer.
Jimmie Johnson
DK: $8,700 FD: $9,200
Johnson is still in the midst of his disappointing season and his career-long winless streak but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value in DFS games. JJ qualified P21 for Sunday’s race but ran 15th and 5th in Saturday’s practices plus showing great long-run speed having posted the best lap-average across all laps in the Happy Hour session. In the last four races here, the 48-car has two top-10s and four top-15s and in the last 10 there’s two top-fives, six top-10s, and eight top-15s. He won’t get you any laps led but he offers a big PD upside while starting in the middle of the pack and hanging in the middle of the salaries lists too. He works for either lineup though I like his price in FD better than DK.
Ryan Blaney
DK: $8,600 FD: $10,000
Blaney might be known as one of the young guns of the sport, but he’s driven this track like a veteran thus far in his career. A top-10, and three top-15s with a solid 83.6 average rating are what he’s done over the last four races here. Then this week he shows up and puts down fast laps in practice with two top-five showings and a P6 10-lap average in the Happy Hour session. Qualifying P5 will help with his finish this week as does the speed, but it’s hard to see him leading a lot of laps or doing anything more than a top-8 finish.
Kurt Busch
DK: $8,500 FD: $9,600
Busch is on the pole this week after a bit of a surprising qualifying run on Friday evening. His single-lap speed at practice has been 10th, 9th, and 12th on the board and was 11th in 10-lap average in the second practice and fourth in Happy Hour. One top-five and two top-10s with no laps led and seven fastest laps are what he’s done in the last four races at the Northeast track, but with him being the pole-sitter that laps led total could change this week. He is still a GPP play because of his questionable pole sitting speed despite it being like a short track and hard to pass during the race.
Aric Almirola
DK: $8,300 FD: $9,400
One peek at the record for Almirola in the last four and you might wonder why he’s in this playbook with just two top-20s in the last four races and an average finish of 21.5 in that span. Well…he’s having a resurgent year this season with Stewart-Haas. He went out and qualified P13 for the race but ran faster than that in the final practice and has shown solid long-run speed in his 10-lap averages on Saturday. If he can keep his consistent season going and show the same speed he had on Saturday, his Sunday results will justify his being in the playbook.
Erik Jones
DK: $8,200 FD: $9,800
In two races at the track, Jones has a top-10 but an average finish of 22.5 even with the top-10. His starting spot has been an average of P7, which is where he’s starting Sunday’s race. At practice this week, the now mullet-less Jones, ran P6 in both Saturday practices for single-lap and P3 in 10-lap average in each of those sessions as well. He is two weeks removed from his first win and is once again carrying speed into a good track for him, dating back to his lone Xfinity race as well as he finished P2 in that effort. A mid-tier price for a solid lineup option is tough to look past for Jones at New Hampshire.
Daniel Suarez
DK: $7,100 FD: $9,000
Suarez has run two races in the Cup series at New Hampshire and has two top-10s in those races. His one Xfinity race saw him finish P4 meaning he hasn’t finish outside the top-10 in three races at the highest levels. This week he has shown solid speed in single-lap and long-run runs after qualifying P9 for Sunday. If he wants to keep the top-10 streak to continue he will need to find some more speed come race day. He’s a GPP play this week.
Matt Kenseth
DK: $6,800 FD: $8,600
It’s hard to look at the stats for New Hampshire and not see Kenseth’s name at the top of the list for just about everything. He has a win, four top-fives, four top-10s, 147 laps led, 163 fastest laps, and an average finish of 2.5. In the last 10 races here he has three wins, seven top-fives, nine top-10s, 325 laps led, and 277 fastest laps. It’s unusual to find a guy with that kind of record at a track, this far down the salary lists on both sites, but especially for less than $7K on DK. Kenseth also has a PD of +7.3 in the last four and +6 in the last 10 so he knows how to move through the field as well. He qualified P31 for Sunday but run near and in the top-20 at practice. His price tag and history combine to make him a cash or GPP play this week.
Paul Menard
DK: $6,600 FD: $7,700
Menard has two top-20s here in the last four but has been on fire the last few races of 2018 including landing on the pole for the Chicago race. This week he qualified P12 but has practiced around that spot in single-lap speed but slightly better than that in 10-lap average. If Menard can stick in the top-10 and sneak out a top-five his price tag is great.
Ty Dillon
DK: $5,500 FD: $5,500
Dillon once again makes the list as a guy who can get you position differential from the bottom of the salary list. In the last two races here has a +8.5 mark with a top-20 finish. He will start P25 in the race, not far off from his average starting spot in the last few and within striking distance of a top-20 finish. He works as salary relief in either lineup.