This week brings with it the first trip to the New Hampshire Motor Speedway and its 1-mile layout. It’s the first race of this type since Dover earlier in the year, however Dover and NHMS are two entirely different tracks, with similar nicknames though. “The Magic Mile” as it’s known is down to one race after Las Vegas Motor Speedway got awarded a second date in the fall but that doesn’t minimize it’s spot in the calendar and what drivers are good at the track.

Overall this is one of the flattest tracks, maybe the flattest, that is raced on all season with the straights banked a just one degree and the corners having variable banking from 2-7 degrees. The oval shaped track means it has two pure straightaways and no curve in the front stretch so in shape it’s similar to that of Martinsville, though it’s twice the length of the Paperclip. Comparable tracks in size and shape are Phoenix and Richmond in that they are both similar lengths and flat in their layout, though they are different shapes.

Three of the last five races here have seen the winner come from double-digit starting spots on the grid but just four of the last 10 have done that. Last year’s winner here, Kyle Busch, started on the pole and led 187 laps of the 301 run. Only six times in the history of the track, 46 races through last year, has the pole sitter won the race while 22 times, drivers starting in the double-digits, including several 30+ starting spots, have ended up winning the race. There has been an average of 8.3 cautions per race over the last 10 trips to the track and the last four have seen 6.5 cautions per running. Four different drivers have won in the last four races and six have in the last eight, with only Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth repeating in victory lane.

Track Data

Last Four Races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Matt Kenseth49.84.32.514444147
Kevin Harvick411.310.511.5133338
Kyle Busch45.53.3612344418
Denny Hamlin45.38.59.31124459
Brad Keselowski410.898023443
Martin Truex Jr42.847.802334513
Kyle Larson4169.57.8023342
Joey Logano418.316.515.3012330
Kurt Busch48.313.318012220
Jimmie Johnson44.88.811002441
Daniel Suarez219.5157002220
Clint Bowyer42619.515002220
Ryan Blaney412.313.512.8001340
Ricky Stenhouse Jr42120.515.8001330
Ryan Newman417.517.316.8001230
Jamie McMurray410.311.314.5001140
Erik Jones2719.522.5001110
Kasey Kahne48.516.824.3001110
Chase Elliott410.51017.3000331
Austin Dillon421.819.815.8000240
Alex Bowman21914.520000110
Paul Menard421.522.321.3000020
Aric Almirola425.521.821.5000020
Ty Dillon227.52519000010
AJ Allmendinger417.51920000010
BJ McLeod0000000000
Blake Jones0000000000
Bubba Wallace0000000000
Kyle Weatherman0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000
Chris Buescher426.826.826.3000000
Landon Cassill43028.526.3000000
Michael McDowell424.528.828.5000000
Corey LaJoie2323029000000
David Ragan424.829.530000000
Matt DiBenedetto422.83030000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Matt Kenseth16399%1202122.7130.41137.309.197.79.7
Kevin Harvick6286%105098.2115.658.9-0.200.5017.439.3
Kyle Busch22098%1202129149.2116-0.5026.1320.213
Denny Hamlin6286%1202105.5131.190.7-4.003.6925.614.8
Brad Keselowski4290%120297.9106.289.82.800.198.38.1
Martin Truex Jr19895%1202125.7134.6117.5-5.0032.068.98.2
Kyle Larson7678%1202100.312270.88.200.1321.729.5
Joey Logano1951%117078.992.561.33.000.0013.617.6
Kurt Busch781%1050849752.8-9.700.001331.2
Jimmie Johnson1692%120296.9106.293-6.200.069.33.9
Daniel Suarez459%60184.486.182.712.500.001.71.7
Clint Bowyer240%120271.396.747.511.000.0025.423.8
Ryan Blaney061%120283.698.776-0.500.0015.17.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr415%120168.374.557.65.200.006.210.7
Ryan Newman445%120172.879.763.40.700.006.99.4
Jamie McMurray687%120286.592.381.1-4.200.005.85.4
Erik Jones3357%34075.5111.339.7-15.500.0035.835.8
Kasey Kahne2459%119073.889.463.5-15.800.0015.610.3
Chase Elliott2889%119590.4106.579.4-6.800.0616.111
Austin Dillon120%120268.778.6626.000.009.96.7
Alex Bowman071%6017682.369.7-1.000.006.36.3
Paul Menard03%120160.363.254.20.200.002.96.1
Aric Almirola109%119961.871.850.94.000.001010.9
Ty Dillon34%5995968.749.38.500.009.79.7
AJ Allmendinger212%120267.470.265-2.500.002.82.4
BJ McLeod00%00000.00 00
Blake Jones00%00000.00 00
Bubba Wallace00%00000.00 00
Kyle Weatherman00%00000.00 00
Ross Chastain00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00 00
Chris Buescher21%11965057.7450.500.007.75
Landon Cassill01%119645.850.940.93.700.005.14.9
Michael McDowell20%108746.856.535.5-4.000.009.711.3
Corey LaJoie00%5954042.237.83.000.002.22.2
David Ragan71%119244.550.639.5-5.200.006.15
Matt DiBenedetto30%119142.645.739.5-7.200.003.13.1

*Laps Comp. is out of 1,202 total laps run at the last four New Hampshire races

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at New Hampshire

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Matt Kenseth1011.26.25.237999325
Kyle Busch106.56.67.626899629
Brad Keselowski108.67.16.91571010339
Kevin Harvick10109.21315667387
Joey Logano1012.715.216.31457789
Denny Hamlin106.111.813.112488132
Kyle Larson813.813.310.50455716
Jimmie Johnson109.313.212.9026882
Martin Truex Jr1011.210.310.1025810611
Jamie McMurray1011.61213.5023590
Ryan Newman1015.416.216.6013582
Kurt Busch108.113.219.801346103
Aric Almirola1021.622.219.9012350
Clint Bowyer1020.618.1170035641
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1022.520.219.9002560

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Matt Kenseth27794%3013117.9141.590.16.008.1351.4
Kyle Busch32890%2975118.6149.273.7-1.1015.7375.5
Brad Keselowski32091%3013111.5145.789.81.708.4855.9
Kevin Harvick27682%2859102.513358.9-3.009.6874.1
Joey Logano8365%279688.4130.434.3-3.602.2396.1
Denny Hamlin14278%2975101.9131.184.9-7.003.3046.2
Kyle Larson9263%240992.512263.73.300.5058.3
Jimmie Johnson5074%271891.9116.735.4-3.600.0581.3
Martin Truex Jr23674%3013103.4134.665.61.1015.2869
Jamie McMurray3976%301288.9108.179.1-1.900.0029
Ryan Newman1954%293578.188.963.3-1.200.0525.6
Kurt Busch6069%280686.8111.252.8-11.702.5858.4
Aric Almirola1716%27456688.236.71.700.0051.5
Clint Bowyer1942%300875109.747.53.601.0362.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr721%294568.982.156.92.600.0025.2

*Laps Comp. is out of 3,013 total laps run at the last 10 races at New Hampshire

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (18 races)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Matt Kenseth157.77.912.747101010901
Kevin Harvick189.97.37.7313141616685
Kyle Busch189.266.8311151617990
Joey Logano188.910.51029121416294
Denny Hamlin187.48.4828141717579
Kyle Larson189.212.712.61681215144
Ryan Newman1817.316.616.4125101458
Brad Keselowski1813.38.89.906101617248
Martin Truex Jr189.79.712.605914161028
Kurt Busch188.211.412.803111314163
Chase Elliott1411.310.412.10361112141
Jimmie Johnson189.612.613.10291515102
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1818.620.218.60247110
Aric Almirola1823.320.117.10157130
Erik Jones99.615.815.8015670

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Matt Kenseth52188%4734111.5149.762.2-5.0015.0287.5
Kevin Harvick56792%5856110.8144.758.92.209.5185.8
Kyle Busch59095%5972116149.273.72.4013.7575.5
Joey Logano16078%596997.5125.661.3-1.104.0864.3
Denny Hamlin36587%5973105.7137.883.8-0.608.0454
Kyle Larson21066%579892.9125.863.7-3.402.0062.1
Ryan Newman7452%570477.2102.237.20.900.8165
Brad Keselowski38288%6004100.6133.168.93.403.4464.2
Martin Truex Jr47482%5937104.3134.954.6-2.9014.2880.3
Kurt Busch10976%585491.6116.252.8-4.602.2663.4
Chase Elliott17282%478394.6115.964.8-0.802.5251.1
Jimmie Johnson16071%581791.7116.558.6-3.501.4257.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr9123%582869.888.654.80.000.0033.8
Aric Almirola6329%574070.494.136.76.200.0057.4
Erik Jones8466%230681.3111.324.2-6.200.0087.1

*Laps Comp. is out of 6,010 total laps run in last six races each at Richmond, Phoenix, and New Hampshire

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Martin Truex Jr513.87.85.2244458.6112.5
Kyle Busch59.6119.4144440.299.5
Clint Bowyer510.69.28.6133442105.2
Erik Jones513.613.87.2114556.486.7
Kevin Harvick55.85.66.204445-0.4122.3
Brad Keselowski55.21213.401344-8.294.2
Kurt Busch51210.813.801334-1.895.5
Kyle Larson515.413.416.401233-192.9
Chase Elliott57.213.215.801234-8.687.6
Ryan Blaney58.214.820.401223-12.288.5
Paul Menard513.416.816.601133-3.274.5
Chris Buescher525.420.417.2011228.264.8
AJ Allmendinger519.823.622.401112-2.661.1
Kasey Kahne527.221.619.8011127.458
Joey Logano511.813.616.600334-4.885.3

 

Points Changes at New Hampshire

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr111.2558.9052.4
Kyle Larson98.2553.6144.6
Denny Hamlin79.0055.1323.9
Matt Kenseth55.5037.0818.4
Kyle Busch70.2563.406.8
Daniel Suarez48.0045.542.5
Ty Dillon37.0043.75-6.8
Austin Dillon40.0047.18-7.2
Clint Bowyer49.5059.46-10.0
Brad Keselowski40.0050.81-10.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr34.5046.43-11.9
Kevin Harvick49.0062.18-13.2
Kurt Busch38.0051.91-13.9
Landon Cassill26.0040.50-14.5
Corey LaJoie13.0028.42-15.4
Chase Elliott33.5050.55-17.0
Paul Menard29.0046.88-17.9
AJ Allmendinger26.0047.24-21.2
Jimmie Johnson27.5050.72-23.2
Ryan Blaney21.0046.58-25.6
David Ragan18.0044.30-26.3
Michael McDowell12.0040.01-28.0
Ryan Newman15.5043.74-28.2
Jamie McMurray16.0044.33-28.3
Chris Buescher16.0045.35-29.4
Aric Almirola17.5055.29-37.8
Matt DiBenedetto0.5042.94-42.4
Kasey Kahne-4.5044.24-48.7
Joey Logano-12.5057.36-69.9
Erik Jones-28.0050.69-78.7
    
  Avg. +/-25.8

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Kyle Larson88.753.6135.09
Matt Kenseth6737.0829.92
Denny Hamlin8255.1326.87
Daniel Suarez69.145.5423.56
Martin Truex Jr80.858.9021.90
Ty Dillon59.643.7515.85
Austin Dillon61.647.1814.42
Ricky Stenhouse Jr58.646.4312.17
Brad Keselowski62.650.8111.79
Kurt Busch63.651.9111.69
Corey LaJoie39.828.4211.38
Clint Bowyer70.159.4610.64
Landon Cassill50.640.5010.10
Chase Elliott60.150.559.55
Kevin Harvick69.662.187.42
Jimmie Johnson57.150.726.38
Paul Menard52.646.885.72
AJ Allmendinger51.147.243.86
Ryan Blaney50.146.583.52
Jamie McMurray47.644.333.27
Kyle Busch66.163.402.70
Michael McDowell4240.011.99
David Ragan43.544.30-0.80
Chris Buescher44.545.35-0.85
Ryan Newman42.543.74-1.24
Matt DiBenedetto33.942.94-9.04
Aric Almirola45.655.29-9.69
Kasey Kahne31.544.24-12.74
Joey Logano18.957.36-38.46
Erik Jones-10.550.69-61.19
    
  Avg. +/-13.79

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick5.9936Kyle Weatherman1.78
2Kyle Busch5.4035BJ McLeod2.74
3Clint Bowyer4.9234Matt Kenseth2.83
4Chris Buescher4.8833Ryan Newman2.83
5Aric Almirola4.8132Jamie McMurray3.26
6Matt DiBenedetto4.7031Austin Dillon3.47
7Michael McDowell4.6230Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.49
8AJ Allmendinger4.5229Corey Lajoie3.50
9Martin Truex Jr4.4428William Byron3.61
10David Ragan4.4027Daniel Suarez3.68

 

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Landon Cassill8.1036Matt Kenseth4.31
2Ty Dillon7.9535Martin Truex Jr.4.64
3Justin Marks7.8734Ryan Blaney4.66
4David Ragan7.3833Brad Keselowski4.75
5Matt DiBenedetto7.0432Denny Hamlin4.79
6Bubba Wallace6.8431Kyle Larson4.87
7AJ Allmendinger6.5630Chase Elliott5.00
8Chris Buescher6.4829Kevin Harvick5.05
9Kyle Weatherman6.4028Daniel Suarez5.06
10Austin Dillon6.2927Kyle Busch5.07

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Kyle Busch - Busch has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s, 418 laps led, and 220 fastest laps in the last four races with a 98% top-15 rate. His average finish of 6.0 is second-best in that span. Busch has the highest average driver rating of 129.0 in the last four while his 111.5 mark is third-best in the last 10 races. Busch has two wins, six top-fives, eight top-10s, and 629 laps led. The two wins makes him one of two drivers in the field with multiple wins in that span. With him among the best drivers week in and week out this season and coming to a track with that much success, he’s atop the list of drivers to watch this week.

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex had another dominant performance at Kentucky last week and despite not having a win here in the last 10 he has led the most laps in the last four and the second-most laps led in the last 10 trips to New Hampshire. With two top-fives, three top-10s, the laps led and the 198 fastest laps and a 95% top-15 rate, Truex is in the top-six drivers in the field this week once more, though having a win would certainly help his cause as he’s near the top of the salary lists on both sites.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin won this race a year ago, and then promptly ran away from the lobster you get for winning. His win is the only top-five he has in the last four, but he does have two total top-10s and four top-15s with 59 laps led and 62 fastest laps and a 105.5 average driver rating. In the last 10 races here there is still just the one win but four top-10s and eight top-15s with 132 laps led and 142 fastest laps. I’d like to see a higher top-15 rate than 86% from him when starts on average of 5.3 and finishes 9.3 in the last four.

Kyle Larson - A flat, shorter track, doesn’t seem like the type of place that Larson would succeed at right? Well then you’d be surprised. Two top-fives, three top-10s, and 76 fastest laps are his totals in the last four races at Loudon, with two laps led. His +8.2 position differential is second-best in the field behind only Clint Bowyer’s +11 over the last four. Larson has run eight career race here at the track and has four top-fives and five top-10s in that time with 16 laps led and 92 fastest laps, though he does have just a 63% top-15 rate. At less than $10K on DK and just $11K on FD, that’s a pretty decent price for a guy with his kind of history.

Brad Keselowski - Keselowsi has two top-fives, three top-10s, and four top-15s with three laps led and 42 fastest laps recently at New Hampshire and his consistency has been present for the last 10 races as well. He has a win, five top-fives, seven top-10s, 10 top-15s, 339 laps led (third in the field) and 328 fastest laps (second in the field) over the last 10 trips to the Northeast. Keselowski’s average finish of 6.9 is second in the field in that span, only behind the guy below him in this section. With him being cheaper than Larson, he should be on your short list for lineups once again this week.

Matt Kenseth - When you look at lists of top performers at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, you’d be hard pressed to not see Kenseth at the top of the list no matter what stat you are looking at. In the last four, he’s got a win and four top-fives with 147 laps led (third in the field) and 163 fastest laps (third in the field) with a 99% top-15 rate and a remarkable 122.7 average driver rating. His average finish of 2.5 in that span is by far the best in the field as is his three wins, seven top-fives, nine top-10s, and 5.2 average finish over the last 10 races at the track. Now that being said, clearly this hasn’t been a normal season for him or the 6-team with he and Trevor Bayne switching off every few weeks, but the car was better last week at Kentucky which gives hope for improvement again this week. He knows what he needs, the question is can the Roush team give it to him.