After two great races at Chicago and Daytona, it’s time to turn our attention to Kentucky Speedway and the Quaker State 400. Kentucky is the newest addition to the MENCS schedule, having been added in 2011 for the first time. The track opened in 2000 but it took a while to make room on the Cup series schedule. Even with just seven races at the track, it has already been redesigned to change the banking in Turns 1 & 2 and narrow the surface to allow for a wider pit road exit. When the track opened all four turns were 14 degrees and the entrance to the first set of turns was 72 feet wide, now the first two corners are 17 degrees and the width of the track is down to 56 feet while leaving the banking on Turns 3 & 4 at 14 degrees.

It might seem like it’s a pretty standard 1.5-mile track but that’s not necessarily true. The third turn is one of the hardest entries in the Cup series with its wide and slopping entry off a relatively short straightaway between the exit of Turn 2 and Turn 3. It’s also got a lot of the lap spent in turns and not a lot through straightaways or through the Tri-oval.

Six of the seven winners of the races at Kentucky have come from the top-nine starting spots with the seventh coming from 16th. Four of the seven have started either on the pole or P2 including the last two winners. That being said, Kyle Larson did manage to drive from 40th to second in last year’s race. Nearly half of the races have had double-digit cautions and all but one have had 11 or more lead changes. There are only four drivers in the field that have dominated the laps led with each having at least 128 and two with 300 or more in the last four races. Four drivers have recorded wins here in the seven races run total, in what is a fairly small sample size.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Kentucky Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Brad Keselowski43.81011.822333336
Kyle Busch48.54513344306
Martin Truex Jr48.39.511.811224198
Matt Kenseth4117.88.5023342
Denny Hamlin46.817.5160223313
Ryan Newman4191412022232
Joey Logano45.312.814.50133367
Kurt Busch41013.3140123310
Kyle Larson416.817.324011120
Chase Elliott21016.517011110
Kevin Harvick4758.300444128
Jamie McMurray48.81516.3002330
Jimmie Johnson41221.322.8002220
Kasey Kahne42017.821.8001220
Erik Jones11486001110
Ryan Blaney210.51922.5001110
Paul Menard418.516.817.3000230
Ricky Stenhouse Jr419.32522.5000220
Clint Bowyer420.51819.5000120
Aric Almirola32019.323.7000120
Bubba Wallace1171611000110
Austin Dillon41617.319000031
David Ragan429.52523.8000012
Daniel Suarez191318000010
AJ Allmendinger421.522.326000010
Chris Buescher2282626.5000010
Alex Bowman2323433.5000002
Ty Dillon228.529.529000001
Blake Jones0000000000
Corey LaJoie0000000000
Garrett Smithley0000000000
Jesse Little0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000
Michael McDowell1212523000000
Landon Cassill434.328.828.8000000
Timmy Hill1383431000000
BJ McLeod1373532000000
Matt DiBenedetto334.73435000000
JJ Yeley1414039000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Brad Keselowski19482%890113.115051.8-8.0021.0036.961.3
Kyle Busch16498%1075126.5148.41083.5019.1321.918.5
Martin Truex Jr15469%1075106.214963.6-3.5012.3842.842.6
Matt Kenseth2992%1074104.1113.597.32.500.139.46.8
Denny Hamlin2662%83584.7117.146.6-9.200.8132.438.1
Ryan Newman1155%107387.2116.758.87.000.1329.528.4
Joey Logano4468%86093.9123.347.2-9.204.1929.446.7
Kurt Busch671%106583.292.773.8-4.000.639.59.4
Kyle Larson2761%88082.2107.666.1-7.200.0025.416.1
Chase Elliott565%48494.7104.484.9-7.000.009.79.8
Kevin Harvick6097%1075114.3131.3104.6-1.308.00179.7
Jamie McMurray759%105887.1103.869.5-7.500.0016.717.6
Jimmie Johnson1646%82976.19353.2-10.800.0016.922.9
Kasey Kahne1254%89375.3101.150-1.800.0025.825.3
Erik Jones599%274102.7102.7102.78.000.0000
Ryan Blaney1151%41681.48874.8-12.000.006.66.6
Paul Menard347%107276.489.659.31.200.0013.217.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr318%81557.474.524.5-3.200.0017.132.9
Clint Bowyer243%107170.484.751.51.000.0014.318.9
Aric Almirola139%70875.188.367.8-3.700.0013.27.3
Bubba Wallace048%27375.275.275.26.000.0000
Austin Dillon1744%107374.685.659.2-3.000.061115.4
David Ragan014%106456.182.338.75.700.1326.217.4
Daniel Suarez167%27376.776.776.7-9.000.0000
AJ Allmendinger218%90857.672.236.2-4.500.0014.621.4
Chris Buescher32%3655462.9451.500.008.99
Alex Bowman01%52135.944.227.5-1.500.258.38.4
Ty Dillon12%5174553.936-0.500.138.99
Blake Jones00%00000.00 00
Corey LaJoie00%00000.00 00
Garrett Smithley00%00000.00 00
Jesse Little00%00000.00 00
Ross Chastain00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00 00
Michael McDowell00%27155.255.255.2-2.000.0000
Landon Cassill11%105746.450.935.95.500.004.510.5
Timmy Hill00%26134.134.134.17.000.0000
BJ McLeod00%26032.232.232.25.000.0000
Matt DiBenedetto10%49436.248.229.8-0.300.00126.4
JJ Yeley10%26030.430.430.42.000.0000

*Laps Comp. are out of 1,075 total laps run at Kentucky Speedway in the last four races.

Top-15 Drivers at All Seven Races at Kentucky Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Brad Keselowski75.311.312.633555483
Kyle Busch75.94.65.125677549
Matt Kenseth713.386.91366740
Martin Truex Jr711.110.711.411447199
Denny Hamlin78.915.416.10335576
Ryan Newman715.114.714.3033452
Joey Logano79.313.3140245567
Jimmie Johnson78.113.915.601555203
Kurt Busch71213.412.90145651
Jamie McMurray715.616.616.9013550
Kasey Kahne717.716.116.1012551
Clint Bowyer717.616.718.9011240
Kyle Larson416.817.324011120
Chase Elliott21016.517011110
Kevin Harvick710.481000567128

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Brad Keselowski26678%1577109.615051.8-7.3017.2598.2
Kyle Busch26896%1876125.9148.41080.8019.6140.4
Matt Kenseth9694%1875106.4131.693.36.401.4338.3
Martin Truex Jr16069%187699.514963.6-0.307.1185.4
Denny Hamlin6064%151690.4124.646.6-7.202.7178
Ryan Newman1459%181584.7116.758.80.800.0757.9
Joey Logano5161%166091123.347.2-4.702.3976.1
Jimmie Johnson13468%163097.5138.853.2-7.507.2585.6
Kurt Busch2763%186686.3118.566.7-0.901.8251.8
Jamie McMurray1947%179083.6104.153.6-1.300.0050.5
Kasey Kahne6456%169485.1101.3501.600.0451.3
Clint Bowyer1247%36577.1117.449.1-1.300.0068.3
Kyle Larson2761%88082.2107.666.1-7.200.0041.5
Chase Elliott565%27394.7104.484.9-7.000.0019.5
Kevin Harvick6989%1876104.1131.385.80.404.5745.5

*Laps Comp. is out of 1,876 laps total run at all seven Kentucky races.

Top-15 Drivers at Last 18 Races at Similar Tracks (Kansas and Las Vegas)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Brad Keselowski185.810.610.658131515641
Martin Truex Jr187.37.98.147111618737
Kevin Harvick189.77.310.146141516729
Kyle Busch178.55.86.7211141616791
Matt Kenseth1712.19.612.925111314367
Joey Logano188.610.612.618121313313
Denny Hamlin189.112.914.6078121491
Ryan Blaney121210.512.7048910141
Kyle Larson1514.815.320.304668101
Jimmie Johnson1812.812.714.60391214448
Kurt Busch1712.114.114.8038101346
Kasey Kahne1818.514.913.80371215114
Ryan Newman1814.714.917.7035101216
Chase Elliott1011.81519.4034554
Jamie McMurray1816.217.718.701510123

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Brad Keselowski46282%4439105.215051.8-4.808.9098.2
Martin Truex Jr48587%4815110.314963.6-0.8010.2485.4
Kevin Harvick49589%458511315062.2-0.4010.1387.8
Kyle Busch41494%4548115.7148.497.31.8011.6351.1
Matt Kenseth25383%4417101134.145.8-0.805.4088.3
Joey Logano22574%450498.1131.247.2-4.004.3584
Denny Hamlin9571%442689.4124.646.6-5.501.2678
Ryan Blaney12478%306796.2128.463-0.702.9465.4
Kyle Larson12762%359886.7125.953.3-5.501.6872.6
Jimmie Johnson36170%453596.6138.853.2-1.806.2285.6
Kurt Busch4959%444683.7113.962.9-2.700.6851
Kasey Kahne14959%462684.2138.9504.701.5888.9
Ryan Newman2962%452980.5116.749-3.000.2267.7
Chase Elliott6365%79988.3116.373.1-7.600.1043.2
Jamie McMurray3447%458677.8104.146.7-2.500.0457.4

*Laps Comp. is out of 4,815 total laps run at the last six races at each of Kentucky, Las Vegas, and Kansas

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Martin Truex Jr514.48.25.2244459.2108.5
Kyle Busch59.610.69.2144440.4100.9
Clint Bowyer510.88.810.2133340.6105.5
Erik Jones518.21511.6113446.682
Kevin Harvick55.65604445-0.4127.6
Kyle Larson514.412.41502233-0.695.4
Brad Keselowski57.81213.801344-692.1
Chase Elliott56.212.215.201334-991.4
Kurt Busch511.41316.401224-587.8
Paul Menard516.218.416.601133-0.471.5
Chris Buescher526.821160112310.864.1
AJ Allmendinger519.422.220.801112-1.463.8
Kasey Kahne525.82222011123.856.9
Joey Logano59.415.816.400334-783.6
Alex Bowman513.813.614.400334-0.681

 

Points Changes at Kentucky Speedway (July 2017)

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr127.0046.7380.3
Kyle Larson92.5041.1251.4
Kyle Busch87.5063.1324.4
Chase Elliott52.5033.119.4
Erik Jones48.5031.2517.3
Bubba Wallace39.0024.7514.3
Jamie McMurray37.0023.3713.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr34.0026.637.4
Chris Buescher35.5028.27.3
Ryan Newman29.0022.796.2
Landon Cassill27.5021.466.0
Timmy Hill20.0014.125.9
Denny Hamlin44.5039.884.6
Austin Dillon31.5027.34.2
BJ McLeod17.00134.0
Joey Logano42.7538.963.8
AJ Allmendinger32.5028.893.6
Ryan Blaney34.0031.962.0
Paul Menard26.5025.421.1
Matt DiBenedetto24.0024.35-0.4
David Ragan22.0023.32-1.3
Matt Kenseth15.0018.5-3.5
Michael McDowell19.0024.22-5.2
Daniel Suarez17.5026.1-8.6
Clint Bowyer37.0046.06-9.1
Ty Dillon5.0024.44-19.4
Kevin Harvick36.5066.8-30.3
Kurt Busch-1.0034.88-35.9
Kasey Kahne-9.0027.19-36.2
Brad Keselowski-24.0036.17-60.2
Jimmie Johnson-27.0033.57-60.6
  Avg. +/-17.7

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Kyle Larson86.453.1333.27
Martin Truex Jr86.157.4828.62
Chase Elliott69.950.2819.62
Erik Jones66.450.3116.09
Jamie McMurray59.943.9115.99
Bubba Wallace60.346.1414.16
Ryan Blaney56.345.5010.80
Timmy Hill39.628.9510.65
Denny Hamlin64.954.8010.10
Chris Buescher55.345.469.84
BJ McLeod37.527.929.58
Ricky Stenhouse Jr56.346.959.35
Matt Kenseth44.334.969.34
Kyle Busch72.663.379.23
Ryan Newman49.743.865.84
Joey Logano62.657.115.49
Landon Cassill46.341.075.23
Austin Dillon52.247.484.72
AJ Allmendinger52.247.844.36
Michael McDowell44.139.854.25
Paul Menard48.746.492.21
Matt DiBenedetto45.543.941.56
David Ragan4543.891.11
Daniel Suarez45.845.300.50
Clint Bowyer56.859.76-2.96
Kevin Harvick58.462.20-3.80
Ty Dillon30.344.05-13.75
Kurt Busch29.951.16-21.26
Kasey Kahne4.844.23-39.43
Brad Keselowski-3.649.95-53.55
Jimmie Johnson-6.350.25-56.55
  Avg. +/-13.97

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick5.7638Garrett Smithley1.09
2Kyle Busch5.7437Matt Kenseth2.68
3Clint Bowyer4.8036BJ McLeod2.77
4JJ Yeley4.7435Jamie McMurray2.96
5Aric Almirola4.5234Ryan Newman3.08
6AJ Allmendinger4.5133Timmy Hill3.14
7Matt DiBenedetto4.4332Daniel Suarez3.39
8Ty Dillon4.3631William Byron3.47
9Chris Buescher4.3430Corey Lajoie3.51
10Kurt Busch4.3129Paul Menard3.53

 

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Matt DiBenedetto8.7937Garrett Smithley0.40
2Landon Cassill8.2136Matt Kenseth4.43
3Ross Chastain8.1635Ryan Blaney4.55
4Ty Dillon8.0134Martin Truex Jr.4.60
5David Ragan7.3133Kyle Larson4.62
6Chris Buescher6.9932Brad Keselowski4.67
7AJ Allmendinger6.8331Jamie McMurray4.88
8Kasey Kahne6.2330Chase Elliott4.93
9Bubba Wallace6.1529Kevin Harvick4.98
10Michael McDowell5.9528Kurt Busch5.07

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Kevin Harvick - Harvick is back atop to price list on DraftKings, third on FanDuel given his dominance on this type of track this year. However there are mixed results here. Harvick is the only driver in the field this week with top-10s in each of the last four races at Kentucky and has five top-10s in all here, but no top-fives or wins. He is also one of the four drivers dominating in laps led with 128 in the last four, and that same total in all seven combined. HIs 8.3 average finish is second-best in the field over the recent history and his top-15 rate also slots him there at 97% while finishing every one of the 1,075 laps run.

Brad Keselowski -  Keselowski has clearly been on the one to beat here since running at the track began. Even the redesign didn’t slow down Keselwoski who has family that lives in the area. In the last four races, he has two wins, three top-10s, 336 laps led (most in the field), and 194 fastest laps (most in the field). He has three wins here overall, five top-10s, 483 laps led, and 266 fastest laps. All three wins have come in the even years, 2012, 2014, and 2016. The only blemish on his record here is the 39th-place finish when an accident in lap 89 ended his day prematurely. The fact that he’s less than 10K on DK and less than 11K on FD in an even year makes him a steal this week.

Kyle Busch - Busch has a win in the last four races along with three top-fives, three top-10s, and 306 laps led (second most in the field) and 164 fastest laps (second most in the field) and a 98% top-15 rate. Going back to the first race here shows a win from Busch for his second total here with five top-fives, six top-10s, and seven top-15s with 549 laps led out of 1,876 total laps run meaning he’s run up front an impressive 29.2% of the time here. He’s near the top of both salary lists again this week and clearly for good reason. He’s a cash game play as things stand right now.

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex is the defending winner here which is one of only two top-10 finishes in the last four races with 198 laps led and 154 fastest laps. His 106.2 average driver rating is third best in the field over that span but is still a very nice number in that stat. Total in the seven races run at Kentucky he has four top-10s and 199 laps led and he has already finished in the top-20. After his early finish in the Coke Zero 400 last week, he should be well-rested to try and once again conquer a 1.5-mile track that should be right in his wheelhouse.

Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is former winner at the track, one of the four talked about above, and has six top-10s in his seven trips to the west Kentucky track. In the last four he has three top-10s and two top-fives but only two laps run out front and 29 fastest laps. His 104.1 driver rating is fourth-best in that span which does give him upside. However in general Roush-Fenway has been a lackluster team this year to say the least and Kenseth’s previous turn in the 6-car didn’t exactly go well. Trevor Bayne has said that both he and Kenseth have been complaining of the same issues with the car which means that should have a shorter path to start fixing things. Kenseth is less than 7K on DK and less than 8K on FD which could be enticing as a GPP flier depending on what car he’s got at the track this weekend.