After two great races at Chicago and Daytona, it’s time to turn our attention to Kentucky Speedway and the Quaker State 400. Kentucky is the newest addition to the MENCS schedule, having been added in 2011 for the first time. The track opened in 2000 but it took a while to make room on the Cup series schedule. Even with just seven races at the track, it has already been redesigned to change the banking in Turns 1 & 2 and narrow the surface to allow for a wider pit road exit. When the track opened all four turns were 14 degrees and the entrance to the first set of turns was 72 feet wide, now the first two corners are 17 degrees and the width of the track is down to 56 feet while leaving the banking on Turns 3 & 4 at 14 degrees.
It might seem like it’s a pretty standard 1.5-mile track but that’s not necessarily true. The third turn is one of the hardest entries in the Cup series with its wide and slopping entry off a relatively short straightaway between the exit of Turn 2 and Turn 3. It’s also got a lot of the lap spent in turns and not a lot through straightaways or through the Tri-oval.
Six of the seven winners of the races at Kentucky have come from the top-nine starting spots with the seventh coming from 16th. Four of the seven have started either on the pole or P2 including the last two winners. That being said, Kyle Larson did manage to drive from 40th to second in last year’s race. Nearly half of the races have had double-digit cautions and all but one have had 11 or more lead changes. There are only four drivers in the field that have dominated the laps led with each having at least 128 and two with 300 or more in the last four races. Four drivers have recorded wins here in the seven races run total, in what is a fairly small sample size.
Track Data
Last Four Races at Kentucky Speedway
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Brad Keselowski | 4 | 3.8 | 10 | 11.8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 336 |
Kyle Busch | 4 | 8.5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 306 |
Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 198 |
Matt Kenseth | 4 | 11 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Denny Hamlin | 4 | 6.8 | 17.5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
Ryan Newman | 4 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Joey Logano | 4 | 5.3 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 67 |
Kurt Busch | 4 | 10 | 13.3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
Kyle Larson | 4 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Chase Elliott | 2 | 10 | 16.5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Kevin Harvick | 4 | 7 | 5 | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 128 |
Jamie McMurray | 4 | 8.8 | 15 | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 12 | 21.3 | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Kasey Kahne | 4 | 20 | 17.8 | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Erik Jones | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ryan Blaney | 2 | 10.5 | 19 | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Paul Menard | 4 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 19.3 | 25 | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Clint Bowyer | 4 | 20.5 | 18 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Aric Almirola | 3 | 20 | 19.3 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bubba Wallace | 1 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Austin Dillon | 4 | 16 | 17.3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
David Ragan | 4 | 29.5 | 25 | 23.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Daniel Suarez | 1 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 21.5 | 22.3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Chris Buescher | 2 | 28 | 26 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Alex Bowman | 2 | 32 | 34 | 33.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Ty Dillon | 2 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Blake Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Garrett Smithley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jesse Little | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ross Chastain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
William Byron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michael McDowell | 1 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Landon Cassill | 4 | 34.3 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Timmy Hill | 1 | 38 | 34 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BJ McLeod | 1 | 37 | 35 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 3 | 34.7 | 34 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
JJ Yeley | 1 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff | Pts./Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
Brad Keselowski | 194 | 82% | 890 | 113.1 | 150 | 51.8 | -8.00 | 21.00 | 36.9 | 61.3 |
Kyle Busch | 164 | 98% | 1075 | 126.5 | 148.4 | 108 | 3.50 | 19.13 | 21.9 | 18.5 |
Martin Truex Jr | 154 | 69% | 1075 | 106.2 | 149 | 63.6 | -3.50 | 12.38 | 42.8 | 42.6 |
Matt Kenseth | 29 | 92% | 1074 | 104.1 | 113.5 | 97.3 | 2.50 | 0.13 | 9.4 | 6.8 |
Denny Hamlin | 26 | 62% | 835 | 84.7 | 117.1 | 46.6 | -9.20 | 0.81 | 32.4 | 38.1 |
Ryan Newman | 11 | 55% | 1073 | 87.2 | 116.7 | 58.8 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 29.5 | 28.4 |
Joey Logano | 44 | 68% | 860 | 93.9 | 123.3 | 47.2 | -9.20 | 4.19 | 29.4 | 46.7 |
Kurt Busch | 6 | 71% | 1065 | 83.2 | 92.7 | 73.8 | -4.00 | 0.63 | 9.5 | 9.4 |
Kyle Larson | 27 | 61% | 880 | 82.2 | 107.6 | 66.1 | -7.20 | 0.00 | 25.4 | 16.1 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 65% | 484 | 94.7 | 104.4 | 84.9 | -7.00 | 0.00 | 9.7 | 9.8 |
Kevin Harvick | 60 | 97% | 1075 | 114.3 | 131.3 | 104.6 | -1.30 | 8.00 | 17 | 9.7 |
Jamie McMurray | 7 | 59% | 1058 | 87.1 | 103.8 | 69.5 | -7.50 | 0.00 | 16.7 | 17.6 |
Jimmie Johnson | 16 | 46% | 829 | 76.1 | 93 | 53.2 | -10.80 | 0.00 | 16.9 | 22.9 |
Kasey Kahne | 12 | 54% | 893 | 75.3 | 101.1 | 50 | -1.80 | 0.00 | 25.8 | 25.3 |
Erik Jones | 5 | 99% | 274 | 102.7 | 102.7 | 102.7 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Blaney | 11 | 51% | 416 | 81.4 | 88 | 74.8 | -12.00 | 0.00 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
Paul Menard | 3 | 47% | 1072 | 76.4 | 89.6 | 59.3 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 13.2 | 17.1 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 3 | 18% | 815 | 57.4 | 74.5 | 24.5 | -3.20 | 0.00 | 17.1 | 32.9 |
Clint Bowyer | 2 | 43% | 1071 | 70.4 | 84.7 | 51.5 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 14.3 | 18.9 |
Aric Almirola | 1 | 39% | 708 | 75.1 | 88.3 | 67.8 | -3.70 | 0.00 | 13.2 | 7.3 |
Bubba Wallace | 0 | 48% | 273 | 75.2 | 75.2 | 75.2 | 6.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Austin Dillon | 17 | 44% | 1073 | 74.6 | 85.6 | 59.2 | -3.00 | 0.06 | 11 | 15.4 |
David Ragan | 0 | 14% | 1064 | 56.1 | 82.3 | 38.7 | 5.70 | 0.13 | 26.2 | 17.4 |
Daniel Suarez | 1 | 67% | 273 | 76.7 | 76.7 | 76.7 | -9.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
AJ Allmendinger | 2 | 18% | 908 | 57.6 | 72.2 | 36.2 | -4.50 | 0.00 | 14.6 | 21.4 |
Chris Buescher | 3 | 2% | 365 | 54 | 62.9 | 45 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 8.9 | 9 |
Alex Bowman | 0 | 1% | 521 | 35.9 | 44.2 | 27.5 | -1.50 | 0.25 | 8.3 | 8.4 |
Ty Dillon | 1 | 2% | 517 | 45 | 53.9 | 36 | -0.50 | 0.13 | 8.9 | 9 |
Blake Jones | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Garrett Smithley | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Jesse Little | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Ross Chastain | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
William Byron | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Michael McDowell | 0 | 0% | 271 | 55.2 | 55.2 | 55.2 | -2.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Landon Cassill | 1 | 1% | 1057 | 46.4 | 50.9 | 35.9 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 4.5 | 10.5 |
Timmy Hill | 0 | 0% | 261 | 34.1 | 34.1 | 34.1 | 7.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
BJ McLeod | 0 | 0% | 260 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 1 | 0% | 494 | 36.2 | 48.2 | 29.8 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 12 | 6.4 |
JJ Yeley | 1 | 0% | 260 | 30.4 | 30.4 | 30.4 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
*Laps Comp. are out of 1,075 total laps run at Kentucky Speedway in the last four races.
Top-15 Drivers at All Seven Races at Kentucky Speedway
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Brad Keselowski | 7 | 5.3 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 483 |
Kyle Busch | 7 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 549 |
Matt Kenseth | 7 | 13.3 | 8 | 6.9 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 40 |
Martin Truex Jr | 7 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 199 |
Denny Hamlin | 7 | 8.9 | 15.4 | 16.1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 76 |
Ryan Newman | 7 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Joey Logano | 7 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 67 |
Jimmie Johnson | 7 | 8.1 | 13.9 | 15.6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 203 |
Kurt Busch | 7 | 12 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 51 |
Jamie McMurray | 7 | 15.6 | 16.6 | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Kasey Kahne | 7 | 17.7 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Clint Bowyer | 7 | 17.6 | 16.7 | 18.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Kyle Larson | 4 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Chase Elliott | 2 | 10 | 16.5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Kevin Harvick | 7 | 10.4 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 128 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
Brad Keselowski | 266 | 78% | 1577 | 109.6 | 150 | 51.8 | -7.30 | 17.25 | 98.2 |
Kyle Busch | 268 | 96% | 1876 | 125.9 | 148.4 | 108 | 0.80 | 19.61 | 40.4 |
Matt Kenseth | 96 | 94% | 1875 | 106.4 | 131.6 | 93.3 | 6.40 | 1.43 | 38.3 |
Martin Truex Jr | 160 | 69% | 1876 | 99.5 | 149 | 63.6 | -0.30 | 7.11 | 85.4 |
Denny Hamlin | 60 | 64% | 1516 | 90.4 | 124.6 | 46.6 | -7.20 | 2.71 | 78 |
Ryan Newman | 14 | 59% | 1815 | 84.7 | 116.7 | 58.8 | 0.80 | 0.07 | 57.9 |
Joey Logano | 51 | 61% | 1660 | 91 | 123.3 | 47.2 | -4.70 | 2.39 | 76.1 |
Jimmie Johnson | 134 | 68% | 1630 | 97.5 | 138.8 | 53.2 | -7.50 | 7.25 | 85.6 |
Kurt Busch | 27 | 63% | 1866 | 86.3 | 118.5 | 66.7 | -0.90 | 1.82 | 51.8 |
Jamie McMurray | 19 | 47% | 1790 | 83.6 | 104.1 | 53.6 | -1.30 | 0.00 | 50.5 |
Kasey Kahne | 64 | 56% | 1694 | 85.1 | 101.3 | 50 | 1.60 | 0.04 | 51.3 |
Clint Bowyer | 12 | 47% | 365 | 77.1 | 117.4 | 49.1 | -1.30 | 0.00 | 68.3 |
Kyle Larson | 27 | 61% | 880 | 82.2 | 107.6 | 66.1 | -7.20 | 0.00 | 41.5 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 65% | 273 | 94.7 | 104.4 | 84.9 | -7.00 | 0.00 | 19.5 |
Kevin Harvick | 69 | 89% | 1876 | 104.1 | 131.3 | 85.8 | 0.40 | 4.57 | 45.5 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 1,876 laps total run at all seven Kentucky races.
Top-15 Drivers at Last 18 Races at Similar Tracks (Kansas and Las Vegas)
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Brad Keselowski | 18 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 641 |
Martin Truex Jr | 18 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 737 |
Kevin Harvick | 18 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 729 |
Kyle Busch | 17 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 791 |
Matt Kenseth | 17 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 367 |
Joey Logano | 18 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 313 |
Denny Hamlin | 18 | 9.1 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 91 |
Ryan Blaney | 12 | 12 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 141 |
Kyle Larson | 15 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 101 |
Jimmie Johnson | 18 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 448 |
Kurt Busch | 17 | 12.1 | 14.1 | 14.8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 46 |
Kasey Kahne | 18 | 18.5 | 14.9 | 13.8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 114 |
Ryan Newman | 18 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 17.7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
Chase Elliott | 10 | 11.8 | 15 | 19.4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Jamie McMurray | 18 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 18.7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 3 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | Rating | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts./Race | Range |
Brad Keselowski | 462 | 82% | 4439 | 105.2 | 150 | 51.8 | -4.80 | 8.90 | 98.2 |
Martin Truex Jr | 485 | 87% | 4815 | 110.3 | 149 | 63.6 | -0.80 | 10.24 | 85.4 |
Kevin Harvick | 495 | 89% | 4585 | 113 | 150 | 62.2 | -0.40 | 10.13 | 87.8 |
Kyle Busch | 414 | 94% | 4548 | 115.7 | 148.4 | 97.3 | 1.80 | 11.63 | 51.1 |
Matt Kenseth | 253 | 83% | 4417 | 101 | 134.1 | 45.8 | -0.80 | 5.40 | 88.3 |
Joey Logano | 225 | 74% | 4504 | 98.1 | 131.2 | 47.2 | -4.00 | 4.35 | 84 |
Denny Hamlin | 95 | 71% | 4426 | 89.4 | 124.6 | 46.6 | -5.50 | 1.26 | 78 |
Ryan Blaney | 124 | 78% | 3067 | 96.2 | 128.4 | 63 | -0.70 | 2.94 | 65.4 |
Kyle Larson | 127 | 62% | 3598 | 86.7 | 125.9 | 53.3 | -5.50 | 1.68 | 72.6 |
Jimmie Johnson | 361 | 70% | 4535 | 96.6 | 138.8 | 53.2 | -1.80 | 6.22 | 85.6 |
Kurt Busch | 49 | 59% | 4446 | 83.7 | 113.9 | 62.9 | -2.70 | 0.68 | 51 |
Kasey Kahne | 149 | 59% | 4626 | 84.2 | 138.9 | 50 | 4.70 | 1.58 | 88.9 |
Ryan Newman | 29 | 62% | 4529 | 80.5 | 116.7 | 49 | -3.00 | 0.22 | 67.7 |
Chase Elliott | 63 | 65% | 799 | 88.3 | 116.3 | 73.1 | -7.60 | 0.10 | 43.2 |
Jamie McMurray | 34 | 47% | 4586 | 77.8 | 104.1 | 46.7 | -2.50 | 0.04 | 57.4 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 4,815 total laps run at the last six races at each of Kentucky, Las Vegas, and Kansas
Momentum
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Pos | Avg. | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Diff. | Rating |
Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9.2 | 108.5 |
Kyle Busch | 5 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0.4 | 100.9 |
Clint Bowyer | 5 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.6 | 105.5 |
Erik Jones | 5 | 18.2 | 15 | 11.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6.6 | 82 |
Kevin Harvick | 5 | 5.6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -0.4 | 127.6 |
Kyle Larson | 5 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -0.6 | 95.4 |
Brad Keselowski | 5 | 7.8 | 12 | 13.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 92.1 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 15.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 91.4 |
Kurt Busch | 5 | 11.4 | 13 | 16.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 87.8 |
Paul Menard | 5 | 16.2 | 18.4 | 16.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -0.4 | 71.5 |
Chris Buescher | 5 | 26.8 | 21 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10.8 | 64.1 |
AJ Allmendinger | 5 | 19.4 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1.4 | 63.8 |
Kasey Kahne | 5 | 25.8 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3.8 | 56.9 |
Joey Logano | 5 | 9.4 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 83.6 |
Alex Bowman | 5 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -0.6 | 81 |
Points Changes at Kentucky Speedway (July 2017)
DraftKings
17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
Martin Truex Jr | 127.00 | 46.73 | 80.3 |
Kyle Larson | 92.50 | 41.12 | 51.4 |
Kyle Busch | 87.50 | 63.13 | 24.4 |
Chase Elliott | 52.50 | 33.1 | 19.4 |
Erik Jones | 48.50 | 31.25 | 17.3 |
Bubba Wallace | 39.00 | 24.75 | 14.3 |
Jamie McMurray | 37.00 | 23.37 | 13.6 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 34.00 | 26.63 | 7.4 |
Chris Buescher | 35.50 | 28.2 | 7.3 |
Ryan Newman | 29.00 | 22.79 | 6.2 |
Landon Cassill | 27.50 | 21.46 | 6.0 |
Timmy Hill | 20.00 | 14.12 | 5.9 |
Denny Hamlin | 44.50 | 39.88 | 4.6 |
Austin Dillon | 31.50 | 27.3 | 4.2 |
BJ McLeod | 17.00 | 13 | 4.0 |
Joey Logano | 42.75 | 38.96 | 3.8 |
AJ Allmendinger | 32.50 | 28.89 | 3.6 |
Ryan Blaney | 34.00 | 31.96 | 2.0 |
Paul Menard | 26.50 | 25.42 | 1.1 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 24.00 | 24.35 | -0.4 |
David Ragan | 22.00 | 23.32 | -1.3 |
Matt Kenseth | 15.00 | 18.5 | -3.5 |
Michael McDowell | 19.00 | 24.22 | -5.2 |
Daniel Suarez | 17.50 | 26.1 | -8.6 |
Clint Bowyer | 37.00 | 46.06 | -9.1 |
Ty Dillon | 5.00 | 24.44 | -19.4 |
Kevin Harvick | 36.50 | 66.8 | -30.3 |
Kurt Busch | -1.00 | 34.88 | -35.9 |
Kasey Kahne | -9.00 | 27.19 | -36.2 |
Brad Keselowski | -24.00 | 36.17 | -60.2 |
Jimmie Johnson | -27.00 | 33.57 | -60.6 |
Avg. +/- | 17.7 |
FanDuel
17 Race | 18 Season | FD Pts +/- | |
Driver | Total | Avg FD Pts. | Season AVG |
Kyle Larson | 86.4 | 53.13 | 33.27 |
Martin Truex Jr | 86.1 | 57.48 | 28.62 |
Chase Elliott | 69.9 | 50.28 | 19.62 |
Erik Jones | 66.4 | 50.31 | 16.09 |
Jamie McMurray | 59.9 | 43.91 | 15.99 |
Bubba Wallace | 60.3 | 46.14 | 14.16 |
Ryan Blaney | 56.3 | 45.50 | 10.80 |
Timmy Hill | 39.6 | 28.95 | 10.65 |
Denny Hamlin | 64.9 | 54.80 | 10.10 |
Chris Buescher | 55.3 | 45.46 | 9.84 |
BJ McLeod | 37.5 | 27.92 | 9.58 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 56.3 | 46.95 | 9.35 |
Matt Kenseth | 44.3 | 34.96 | 9.34 |
Kyle Busch | 72.6 | 63.37 | 9.23 |
Ryan Newman | 49.7 | 43.86 | 5.84 |
Joey Logano | 62.6 | 57.11 | 5.49 |
Landon Cassill | 46.3 | 41.07 | 5.23 |
Austin Dillon | 52.2 | 47.48 | 4.72 |
AJ Allmendinger | 52.2 | 47.84 | 4.36 |
Michael McDowell | 44.1 | 39.85 | 4.25 |
Paul Menard | 48.7 | 46.49 | 2.21 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 45.5 | 43.94 | 1.56 |
David Ragan | 45 | 43.89 | 1.11 |
Daniel Suarez | 45.8 | 45.30 | 0.50 |
Clint Bowyer | 56.8 | 59.76 | -2.96 |
Kevin Harvick | 58.4 | 62.20 | -3.80 |
Ty Dillon | 30.3 | 44.05 | -13.75 |
Kurt Busch | 29.9 | 51.16 | -21.26 |
Kasey Kahne | 4.8 | 44.23 | -39.43 |
Brad Keselowski | -3.6 | 49.95 | -53.55 |
Jimmie Johnson | -6.3 | 50.25 | -56.55 |
Avg. +/- | 13.97 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers
DraftKings
Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kevin Harvick | 5.76 | 38 | Garrett Smithley | 1.09 |
2 | Kyle Busch | 5.74 | 37 | Matt Kenseth | 2.68 |
3 | Clint Bowyer | 4.80 | 36 | BJ McLeod | 2.77 |
4 | JJ Yeley | 4.74 | 35 | Jamie McMurray | 2.96 |
5 | Aric Almirola | 4.52 | 34 | Ryan Newman | 3.08 |
6 | AJ Allmendinger | 4.51 | 33 | Timmy Hill | 3.14 |
7 | Matt DiBenedetto | 4.43 | 32 | Daniel Suarez | 3.39 |
8 | Ty Dillon | 4.36 | 31 | William Byron | 3.47 |
9 | Chris Buescher | 4.34 | 30 | Corey Lajoie | 3.51 |
10 | Kurt Busch | 4.31 | 29 | Paul Menard | 3.53 |
FanDuel
Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Matt DiBenedetto | 8.79 | 37 | Garrett Smithley | 0.40 |
2 | Landon Cassill | 8.21 | 36 | Matt Kenseth | 4.43 |
3 | Ross Chastain | 8.16 | 35 | Ryan Blaney | 4.55 |
4 | Ty Dillon | 8.01 | 34 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4.60 |
5 | David Ragan | 7.31 | 33 | Kyle Larson | 4.62 |
6 | Chris Buescher | 6.99 | 32 | Brad Keselowski | 4.67 |
7 | AJ Allmendinger | 6.83 | 31 | Jamie McMurray | 4.88 |
8 | Kasey Kahne | 6.23 | 30 | Chase Elliott | 4.93 |
9 | Bubba Wallace | 6.15 | 29 | Kevin Harvick | 4.98 |
10 | Michael McDowell | 5.95 | 28 | Kurt Busch | 5.07 |
Drivers To Watch This Week
Kevin Harvick - Harvick is back atop to price list on DraftKings, third on FanDuel given his dominance on this type of track this year. However there are mixed results here. Harvick is the only driver in the field this week with top-10s in each of the last four races at Kentucky and has five top-10s in all here, but no top-fives or wins. He is also one of the four drivers dominating in laps led with 128 in the last four, and that same total in all seven combined. HIs 8.3 average finish is second-best in the field over the recent history and his top-15 rate also slots him there at 97% while finishing every one of the 1,075 laps run.
Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has clearly been on the one to beat here since running at the track began. Even the redesign didn’t slow down Keselwoski who has family that lives in the area. In the last four races, he has two wins, three top-10s, 336 laps led (most in the field), and 194 fastest laps (most in the field). He has three wins here overall, five top-10s, 483 laps led, and 266 fastest laps. All three wins have come in the even years, 2012, 2014, and 2016. The only blemish on his record here is the 39th-place finish when an accident in lap 89 ended his day prematurely. The fact that he’s less than 10K on DK and less than 11K on FD in an even year makes him a steal this week.
Kyle Busch - Busch has a win in the last four races along with three top-fives, three top-10s, and 306 laps led (second most in the field) and 164 fastest laps (second most in the field) and a 98% top-15 rate. Going back to the first race here shows a win from Busch for his second total here with five top-fives, six top-10s, and seven top-15s with 549 laps led out of 1,876 total laps run meaning he’s run up front an impressive 29.2% of the time here. He’s near the top of both salary lists again this week and clearly for good reason. He’s a cash game play as things stand right now.
Martin Truex Jr. - Truex is the defending winner here which is one of only two top-10 finishes in the last four races with 198 laps led and 154 fastest laps. His 106.2 average driver rating is third best in the field over that span but is still a very nice number in that stat. Total in the seven races run at Kentucky he has four top-10s and 199 laps led and he has already finished in the top-20. After his early finish in the Coke Zero 400 last week, he should be well-rested to try and once again conquer a 1.5-mile track that should be right in his wheelhouse.
Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is former winner at the track, one of the four talked about above, and has six top-10s in his seven trips to the west Kentucky track. In the last four he has three top-10s and two top-fives but only two laps run out front and 29 fastest laps. His 104.1 driver rating is fourth-best in that span which does give him upside. However in general Roush-Fenway has been a lackluster team this year to say the least and Kenseth’s previous turn in the 6-car didn’t exactly go well. Trevor Bayne has said that both he and Kenseth have been complaining of the same issues with the car which means that should have a shorter path to start fixing things. Kenseth is less than 7K on DK and less than 8K on FD which could be enticing as a GPP flier depending on what car he’s got at the track this weekend.