This week we are back to a 1.5-mile layout as the NASCAR schedule heads to the suburbs of Chicago for Sunday’s Overton’s 400. Chicagoland Spweedway is one of the newest additions to the NASCAR schedule as it opened in 2001 and has hosted one race a year since the inaugural season of the track. As far as tracks of this distance are concerned, it’s a pretty standard 1.5-mile layout that involves a Tri-Oval and 18 degrees worth of banking in the turns. The front stretch is also banked at 11 degrees.

The major concerns with the track are that it’s a worn-down racing surface, similar to that of Atlanta where tire wear is a big time issue. The other concerns are the bumps in the third and fourth turns especially where the car is very loaded and it puts a lot of pressure on the springs and tires. The entrance to pit road requires a bit of a sharp turn off of the banking to get to and it’s hard to spot even from the middle of Turns 3 and 4 which can make green flag pit stops tricky to slow down for.

In the 17 races that have been held at Chicagoland Speedway in its history, only one winner has started on the pole (Kyle Busch in 2008) and only two winners have started inside the top-five starting spots (the aforementioned Busch win and Martin Truex Jr. last year starting P3). Seven of the 17 have started P10 or better and a winner has come from P25 or worse five times including twice in the last four races. So it’s a fairly unpredictable track that allows for cars to move up through field via passing and pit strategy and with a relatively small amount of cautions happening long-run speed will rule the day.

This race was originally run in July from 2001-2010 and then transitioned to the September weekend in 2011 when NASCAR made a schedule change that season. In terms of if that changes the track much, it really doesn’t from a lead changes, cautions, or winning position standpoint so despite it being earlier in the calendar once more, it should be pretty much the same track.

Two notes on scheduling before we continue, for those of you that watch the race coverage each week, this is the week that NBC and NBCSN become the broadcast team for the rest of the season as Fox’s last race was Sonoma. Also this weekend is a two-day show as they call it and so both practices are on Saturday and qualifying is Saturday evening with the race happening Sunday afternoon. That means that the playbook and Lineups will be out later on Saturday than normal.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Chicagoland Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr41010.57.322244148
Brad Keselowski48.86.351244470
Denny Hamlin414.510.54.31244412
Joey Logano411.57.34.8024442
Kyle Larson4119.88.30233422
Kevin Harvick45.311.817.502223148
Chase Elliott21132.502222117
Kurt Busch41312.310.80123437
Ryan Newman410.51615.3011230
Ryan Blaney21713.57.5011228
Kyle Busch42.579.800344273
Jamie McMurray414.811.311.50023432
Jimmie Johnson4107.810.800144118
Kasey Kahne417.816.816.3001220
Alex Bowman328.72727.3001116
Aric Almirola422.821.326.8001112
Austin Dillon4111822.3000130
Paul Menard419.819.318.3000120
Clint Bowyer417.817.523.3000120
Daniel Suarez1131112000110
David Ragan432.528.527.5000110
Ricky Stenhouse Jr417.321.521.3000020
Landon Cassill43327.326000012
AJ Allmendinger420.52625.3000010
Trevor Bayne325.32524.3000000
Chris Buescher215.526.527.5000000
Ty Dillon2282727.5000000
Erik Jones1242633000000
Michael McDowell330.733.733000000
Matt DiBenedetto335.333.333.3000000
Reed Sorenson437.835.835000000
Corey LaJoie1333636000000
Gray Gaulding1363838000000
Timmy Hill240.539.540000000
Bubba Wallace0000000000
Cole Custer0000000000
Kyle Weatherman0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Martin Truex Jr14871%1071109.2129.969.52.709.2520.739.7
Brad Keselowski6097%1071109123.289.63.804.3814.219.4
Denny Hamlin3783%1071106.8112.893.910.200.75612.9
Joey Logano2193%1071104111.194.66.700.137.19.4
Kyle Larson5483%107097.1110.183.92.701.381313.2
Kevin Harvick9965%1012104.5127.576.9-12.209.252327.6
Chase Elliott52100%537125.6129.11228.5014.633.53.6
Kurt Busch5579%106993.9125.679.32.202.3131.714.6
Ryan Newman1645%106781.598.862.8-4.800.0017.318.7
Ryan Blaney876%53787.591.983.19.501.004.44.4
Kyle Busch11385%1070117.8130.6105.3-7.3017.0612.812.5
Jamie McMurray1685%107090.6113.575.13.302.0022.915.5
Jimmie Johnson6198%1071103.9121.393.1-0.807.3817.410.8
Kasey Kahne332%10657796.266.71.500.0019.210.3
Alex Bowman626%79059.791.842.91.400.5032.116.8
Aric Almirola136%102764.389.740.7-4.000.1325.423.6
Austin Dillon1247%100178.281.276.7-11.300.0031.5
Paul Menard1024%106768.672.361.61.500.003.77
Clint Bowyer645%104469.379.261.2-5.500.009.98.1
Daniel Suarez0100%26787.287.287.21.000.0000
David Ragan111%105649.676.336.75.000.0026.712.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2619%106364.381.552-4.000.0017.212.3
Landon Cassill49%105850.364.541.77.000.1314.28.6
AJ Allmendinger36%105855.868.743.6-4.800.0012.912.2
Trevor Bayne91%79658.162.352.51.000.004.25.6
Chris Buescher00%53153.956.351.4-12.000.002.42.5
Ty Dillon00%53049.651.847.30.500.002.22.3
Erik Jones61%25958.658.658.6-9.000.0000
Michael McDowell20%78638.744.531.6-2.300.005.87.1
Matt DiBenedetto00%78637.641.230.32.000.003.67.3
Reed Sorenson00%103634.64725.32.800.0012.49.3
Corey LaJoie00%25632.732.732.7-3.000.0000
Gray Gaulding00%25426.326.326.3-2.000.0000
Timmy Hill00%50925.326.324.20.500.0011.1
Bubba Wallace00%00000.00 00
Cole Custer00%00000.00 00
Kyle Weatherman00%00000.00 00
Ross Chastain00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00 00

 

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at Chicagoland Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Brad Keselowski912.8109.224778152
Martin Truex Jr101411.611224710164
Kyle Busch109.29.711.813678512
Denny Hamlin1014.314.9151366713
Kevin Harvick1017.113.714.305568150
Jimmie Johnson107.26.79.503699534
Ryan Newman1013.414.312.20267819
Joey Logano912.112.812.90255834
Kasey Kahne101413.511.6024882
Kurt Busch1016.314.715.602457102
Kyle Larson4119.88.30233422
Chase Elliott21132.502222117
Clint Bowyer1015.513.915.4015677
Jamie McMurray1016.715.917.201346107
Ryan Blaney21713.57.5011228

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Brad Keselowski14574%2403100.5133.357.63.604.2275.7
Martin Truex Jr21572%267397.5129.969.53.004.1060.4
Kyle Busch21275%2661108.1146.361.8-2.6012.8084.5
Denny Hamlin5767%264690.9112.852.3-0.700.3360.5
Kevin Harvick12259%259894.2127.556.82.803.7570.7
Jimmie Johnson34793%2672114.814493.1-2.3013.3550.9
Ryan Newman3053%266885.7107.462.81.200.4844.6
Joey Logano4960%231391111.166.3-0.800.9444.8
Kasey Kahne6558%266789.4121.266.72.400.0554.5
Kurt Busch10461%264787.3125.656.10.702.5569.5
Kyle Larson5483%107097.1110.183.92.701.3826.2
Chase Elliott52100%537125.6129.11228.5014.637.1
Clint Bowyer2864%264683.6108.161.20.100.1846.9
Jamie McMurray4654%256683.5125.753.7-0.502.6872
Ryan Blaney876%53787.591.983.19.501.008.8

 

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (last 20 races combined)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr2010.510.111.747111416488
Jimmie Johnson2016.710.41146121516436
Brad Keselowski2077.89.239171717271
Kevin Harvick205.59.110.92111415171428
Kyle Busch187.68.49.726131416510
Denny Hamlin191010.312.426131415274
Kyle Larson1912.711.611.219121415418
Kasey Kahne2018.118.619.212381126
Joey Logano2011.38.69.808151718210
Kurt Busch1911.612.7120591415245
Chase Elliott1015.98.17.6048910122
Ryan Newman209.414.115.7037101424
Clint Bowyer2019.717.619.10359123
Jamie McMurray2015.415.414.7028121635
Paul Menard2018.418.917.80237132

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Martin Truex Jr35380%5323101.615055.9-1.206.1094.1
Jimmie Johnson31876%5328101127.454.75.705.4572.7
Brad Keselowski24291%5285105.1130.486-2.203.3944.4
Kevin Harvick65878%5266113146.159.6-5.4017.8586.5
Kyle Busch38582%4780108136.168.7-2.107.0867.4
Denny Hamlin17982%492498.613067-2.403.6163
Kyle Larson30474%490195.7144.329.81.505.50114.5
Kasey Kahne6441%525374.3105.241.8-1.100.3363.4
Joey Logano20089%5233103.6126.972.11.502.6354.8
Kurt Busch17470%500591.2135.436-0.403.2299.4
Chase Elliott12890%518102129.167.78.303.0561.4
Ryan Newman7862%530684.1108.260.5-6.300.3047.7
Clint Bowyer7952%284376113.632.80.600.0480.8
Jamie McMurray2756%525880.1113.551.40.700.4462.1
Paul Menard4131%528270.9100.6490.600.0351.6

 

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Martin Truex Jr597.44.8244454.2112.8
Kyle Busch54.25.84.614555-0.4116.5
Kevin Harvick510.48.69.8144440.6120.7
Clint Bowyer520.2810.21224510101.8
Brad Keselowski57.8118.402355-0.698.8
Kyle Larson514.61011023443.6102.1
Denny Hamlin51010.41302344-393.4
Kurt Busch510.89.48.801445297.8
Chase Elliott513.210.89.201355492.6
Joey Logano5712.21201334-588.5
Paul Menard51516.212.4012442.675.5
Jimmie Johnson517.615.212.601235583.3
Aric Almirola515.412.29.6003555.891.1
Erik Jones513.813.415.400234-1.683
Jamie McMurray512.417.219.800233-7.477.6

 

Points Changes at Chicagoland Speedway

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr100.7544.1756.6
Chase Elliott69.5036.9232.6
Paul Menard47.0026.0820.9
Jamie McMurray43.0023.4619.5
Trevor Bayne30.5018.3112.2
Landon Cassill32.5022.1510.4
Jimmie Johnson42.5033.688.8
Daniel Suarez33.0026.896.1
Denny Hamlin47.2541.246.0
Kasey Kahne27.0025.571.4
Reed Sorenson14.0013.560.4
Kevin Harvick69.2568.950.3
Kyle Larson40.5040.96-0.5
Brad Keselowski37.7538.91-1.2
Ryan Blaney34.0035.67-1.7
Kyle Busch63.2565.75-2.5
Joey Logano38.0042.14-4.1
Ryan Newman16.0021.42-5.4
AJ Allmendinger21.0027.79-6.8
Austin Dillon21.5028.74-7.2
David Ragan17.0024.39-7.4
Matt DiBenedetto14.0022.81-8.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr17.0026.05-9.1
Michael McDowell14.0024.93-10.9
Timmy Hill4.0016-12.0
Ty Dillon11.0023.39-12.4
Kurt Busch25.0037.74-12.7
Corey LaJoie5.0018.33-13.3
Gray Gaulding4.0017.4-13.4
Clint Bowyer32.0047.5-15.5
Chris Buescher8.0025.69-17.7
Erik Jones5.0028.16-23.2
Aric Almirola17.0040.81-23.8
  Avg. +/-11.7

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr78.455.8722.53
Chase Elliott73.953.5920.31
Jamie McMurray62.244.7217.48
Paul Menard60.647.3813.22
Jimmie Johnson62.750.7311.97
Daniel Suarez56.246.589.62
Kyle Larson63.253.919.29
Brad Keselowski61.352.368.94
Ryan Blaney57.248.408.80
Landon Cassill51.242.838.37
Kevin Harvick71.163.307.80
Denny Hamlin62.856.815.99
Kasey Kahne48.443.235.17
Trevor Bayne47.442.834.57
Reed Sorenson35.931.404.50
Corey LaJoie29.128.410.69
Joey Logano60.760.230.47
Austin Dillon48.149.31-1.21
Ryan Newman40.943.03-2.13
Michael McDowell37.240.26-3.06
Timmy Hill26.930.44-3.54
AJ Allmendinger42.847.24-4.44
David Ragan39.245.42-6.22
Kurt Busch47.553.99-6.49
Matt DiBenedetto36.643.19-6.59
Ty Dillon36.743.58-6.88
Clint Bowyer53.661.28-7.68
Chris Buescher35.844.02-8.22
Ricky Stenhouse Jr37.346.95-9.65
Gray Gaulding27.437.17-9.77
Kyle Busch54.165.48-11.38
Aric Almirola41.957.23-15.33
Erik Jones29.448.28-18.88
  Avg. +/-8.52

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Driver Values

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick5.8438Reed Sorenson2.83
2Kyle Busch5.7737Jamie McMurray2.90
3Clint Bowyer4.9036Ryan Newman2.93
4Aric Almirola4.5935Trevor Bayne3.33
5Kurt Busch4.4934Timmy Hill3.48
6Joey Logano4.4433Erik Jones3.56
7Denny Hamlin4.4332Daniel Suarez3.59
8Chase Elliott4.3431Cole Custer3.61
9Ryan Blaney4.3030William Byron3.61
10Landon Cassill4.2629Gray Gaulding3.70

 

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Ross Chastain8.2138Martin Truex Jr.4.37
2Landon Cassill7.7937Ryan Blaney4.61
3Cole Custer7.6936Brad Keselowski4.72
4Gray Gaulding7.4335Kyle Larson4.73
5Chris Buescher7.2234Jamie McMurray4.91
6Matt DiBenedetto6.8633Chase Elliott5.06
7Aric Almirola6.8132Kevin Harvick5.15
8Michael McDowell6.7131Erik Jones5.19
9Ty Dillon6.7130Kurt Busch5.19
10David Ragan6.6829Jimmie Johnson5.34

 

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is the two-time defending winner here and used those wins to move him through in the playoffs as it was the opening race of the playoffs the past few years. Aside from the two wins, there are two more top-15s and 148 each of laps led and fastest laps in the last four races. In the last 10 races here there are four top-10s and each trip finished with the 78-car being inside the top-20. Taking a look at the momentum section, Truex is the hottest driver in the field this week with two wins and four top-fives in the last five races this season including last week at Sonoma. He hasn’t yet overtaken Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch on the DraftKings salary list, but he is this week’s most-expensive driver on FanDuel.

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is one of only three drivers in the field to have four top-10s in the last four races. He also has a win and two top-fives to go along with the top-10s. The Penske driver is sixth in laps led with 70 and fifth in fastest laps with 60 and is third in top-15 rate with a mark of 97%. Overall that’s an impressive portfolio here and it gets a bit better when looking at the last 10 races given that he’s the only driver with more than six top-10s in that span too. Fords have been very fast at the mile and half tracks this year and Keselowski is still looking for his win to lock into the playoffs.

Denny Hamlin: Denny’s teammate Kyle Busch may have the most laps led here and the second most fastest laps but he doesn’t have as high of finishes as the 11-car does. In the last four races, Hamlin has a win, two top-fives and four top-10s (the second one of the field with four) but just 12 laps led and 37 fastest laps. His 106.8 average driver rating is a nice touch to the profile too as that puts him fourth in that stat. Like Brad, Hamlin is still looking for his first win this year and to clinch a spot in the playoffs for 2018, his history here suggests that could well happen as he’s also been running near the front in recent weeks too.

Joey Logano: Logano is the third and final driver in the field with four top-10s here in the last four races and his 4.8 average finish is second only to Hamlin among drivers with at least three races run in the last four. He does have just two top-five finishes and two laps led in that span so it’s mostly about him just running near the front, as his 93% top-15 rate demonstrates. With Joey and Brad, and Ryan Blaney for that matter, all performing well here it’s clear that Team Penske is a tough one to beat at Chicagoland.

Chase Elliott: Elliott only has two races here in his MENCS but they have been spectacular showings. He has an average finish of 2.5 in that time with two top-fives and 117 laps led. The 100% top-15 rate is the best in the field for drivers with multiple races run and his 125.6 average rating is also tops in that category and is higher than all but four driver’s highest ratings for just one race. Jimmie Johnson has also been good here in his career and as Chase’s teammate has helped him learn this track quickly. The fact that he has a win here in his Xfinity career and 88 laps doesn’t hurt either. His salaries this week are very nice for fitting him in any lineup as he is just $8,500 on DK and $10,600 on FD.