After an off week, it’s time for the first road course of the year and it’s a doozy of a course. Sonoma, or Infineon, or Sears Point, as its formerly been known as is one of the most technically challenging tracks around. It has 160 feet of elevation change on each lap and 11 turns over the 1.99-mile layout used by NASCAR, including a hairpin turn just before the start/finish line that has provided nice passing chances in the past.
Also among the 11 turns are several blind right and left handers that can cause even experienced drivers trouble and put them in the grass from time to time. The inexperienced drivers however, as was seen in practice, are just concentrating on making it around the course and not necessarily doing it as fast as they can, so they may not be the best bets here. Dealing with curbs and extended braking patterns is another key part to the course and thus those with open-wheel experience and dirt track and kart racing experience can be helpful picks, but not always the winners.
As noted in the track breakdown only three of the last 10 winners have started in the top-five of the starting grid and six of the other seven have been in double-digit starting spots. Prior to that run, five of the previous 14 winners started on the pole and the other nine all started in the top-10 so there is the chance the winner can come from as far back as 32 as Juan Pablo Montoya did in 2007 or 30th as Kyle Busch did in the following year, however that takes immaculate pit strategy to gain track position, its not just a driver passing everyone on the course by themselves.
Practice temps were near where the race temps are forecast to be, but qualifying temps were much higher and thus the slipperiness of the track will increase during the qualifying runs. The other thing that will affect qualifying times is the fact that this is an impound race, like Daytona and Talladega and the All-Star Race generally are. Due to the schedule, following qualifying the crews are not allowed to touch or do anything to the cars in any way, not even add fuel, prior to the race. This means cars will be qualifying with a full fuel load in the back and no shifted weight to the frame rails at the bottom of the car and no adjusted camber to help the turning and reduce tire surface area, so the pole speed will be slower than last year’s figure and closer to practice.
There are only 110 laps in the is race, with the fuel window being 38-42 laps, so not only will laps led, fastest laps, and laps completed points be reduced, also the chance to gain track position in pit stops will be reduced because of it being pretty much a three stop race. The stages are 25, 25, and 60 laps each so expect some to pit at the end of each of the first two stages, while some others skip the first pit chance to gain position heading into the second stage.
Playbook
Kevin Harvick
DK: $11,700 FD: $12,600
Harvick is still atop the salary list on both sites due to his win, two top-fives, three top-10s, and 50 laps led in the last four races at Sonoma. His rating of 110.8 in that span is the highest in the field and one of only three over 100 and his 33 fastest laps are second in the field. Harvick has been consistently fast in practice this week in the best five-lap average in the first session ranking second, and tops in the 10-lap average in the second session and P5 in single lap speeds. He has also posted one of the best PD in the field this week at +7.2. SHR has had consistent speeds all season across all four cars, but Harvick has been the class of the field, and he’s in good position to fight for the win again.
Kyle Busch
DK: $11,200 FD: $12,200
Busch has been right up there with Harvick much of the season, and looking at the past four races, they have similar numbers here as well. A win, two top-fives, and three top-10s are all the same, though Busch only has 22 laps led and five fastest laps, along with a 67% top-15 rate (compared to 83% for Harvick). Busch showed middling speed this week at practice and didn’t register enough consecutive laps to figure into the five-lap or 10-lap averages making it hard to tell exactly what he has. He has had weeks in which he hasn’t had the fastest car but still makes a good showing on Sunday, this could be another week like that after he qualified P9 for the race.
Martin Truex Jr.
DK: $10,700 FD: $12,000
Truex is the first one on this list with a questionable history but is showing good speed this week. He has one top-five, one top-10, two top-15s, two top-20s, and 25 laps led in the last four races. Truex starts on average P9 but finishes 24.8 in that span which is disconcerting for someone this highly priced, though at least one of those finishes was due to engine trouble. His 39 fastest laps are the best in the field, showing that while he is on the track he can lay down great lap times. The 78-car has been top-eight in lap times at practice which fits to where he normally starts. He is a GPP play this week given his history.
Kyle Larson
DK: $10,600 FD: $10,200
If you look at his recent history at the track, two top-15s in the last four with nine laps led, it’s not terribly impressive, however the setups have been different in the last few years. The crew this year ran specifically in race trim at practice instead of focusing on qualifying so they are hoping for better results with that strategy. Starting an average of 3.3 in the last four, 20.3 is his average finish which is far from intriguing for a guy that’s this high on the salary list on DK. The pole-sitter is a GPP-only play given his history here.
Brad Keselowski
DK: $9,800 FD: $11,300
Keselowski has a top-five, a top-10, two top-15s, and 17 laps in the last four races at the track and in the last 10 he’s added one more top-10 and two more top-15s and seven more laps led in the additional six races. He has shown nice speed this weekend though with a P7 in final practice and the eighth-best five-lap average in the first practice. Keselowski is better at Watkins Glenn and hasn’t yet transitioned that success there to Sonoma but a 14.8 average finish in the last four is a pretty solid mark.
Joey Logano
DK: $9,500 FD: $11,500
Logano had a bit of a rough go of it at practice this week and didn’t finish highly on any metric from either of the two sessions. However qualifying is a different story as he qualified P12 for Sunday’s race. That starting spot isn’t far off of what he’s normally started at 13.5 and still registered two top-fives, two top-10s, and three top-15s in the last four. There aren’t many laps led or fastest laps to speak of but he does have decent consistency with four top-10s in nine career races here and with a solid showing about half the time, he fits in both lineups pretty well.
Clint Bowyer
DK: $9,300 FD: $11,700
Coming off a win before the off-week, Bowyer is excited to get back into a car this week, especially at Sonoma. In the last four races here, two top-fives, three top-10s and nine laps led with eight fastest laps. Some downsides to him would be the 49% top-15 rate and the 335 laps completed out of 440 total run, but that’s due to an engine electrical issue two years ago. Since Bowyer has been a full-time driver in NASCAR, no one in the field has a better average finish than Bowyer at Sonoma at just over 10th place. His consistency here he credits to learning to driver Martinsville because of the breaking patterns around the turns, and he won at Martinsville this year, plus has a win at Sonoma in the last 10 along with eight top-10s. He is a cash play this week.
Denny Hamlin
DK: $9,100 FD: $11,000
Hamlin will start P21 after a pretty bad qualifying effort in which he missed on the entry to Turn 4. He did have a good long run car and short run car in practice this weekend and has a solid showing of late at Sonoma. Two top-fives, two top-10s, 44 laps led, and 17 fastest laps are all good marks as is the average rating of 90.0. I like his price tag in DK better than FD but he still works on a both sites well and should be in consideration for each lineup since he has the potential to give you position points with the speed in his car.
Jimmie Johnson
DK: $8,900 FD: $10,100
As mentioned in the Track Breakdown piece I am aware that JJ has only led one lap total all year and that came when he stayed on the track instead of pitting in a green flag pit cycle, but things could change this week given his history at this track. In the last four trips to the Napa Valley track, Johnson has an average finish of 9.8 with two top-10s, four top-15s, and 58 laps led and 32 fastest laps (both second in the field). In the last 10 there’s a win, three top-fives, seven top-10s, and 10 top-15s with 140 laps led and 82 fastest laps. All of that points to his turn around coming this week as does the practice runs of P6 in the first session. Starting P7 makes him a solid cash or GPP play this week as does the mid-tier salaries on both sites.
Chase Elliott
DK: $8,700 FD: $9,800
Johnson’s HMS teammate, Elliott has also shown nice speed this week with a top-15 showing in each practice and qualifying P3 just about a tenth of a second behind the pole-sitter. In his two career races at the road course, he’s had one top-10 finish and five fastest laps with every lap completed. That’s not much to go on, but a few years into his career he is showing he has a handle of the track along with learning from Johnson and Jeff Gordon (a former HMS driver and all-time best at Sonoma) and the simulator should benefit him. Either one can work for him.
Kurt Busch
DK: $8,600 FD: $10,600
Tied with Harvick for the best average finish in the last four races, Kurt has done well here. A top-five, three top-10s, four top-15s, 43 laps led, and 32 fastest laps are what he’s posted in that span. In the last 10 there’s a win, four top-fives, six top-10s, and eight top-15s with 137 laps led for the driver of the 41-car. He led the final practice and posted the second best 10-lap average and the third-best five-lap average in the first session. His qualifying effort left spots to be desired but with his experience and speed here should allow him to move through the field well.
Ryan Blaney
DK: $8,400 FD: $10,000
Blaney has run here twice with one top-10 finish to his credit but showed top-five speed at practice in both single lap and long-run speed and said during qualifying that he feels that he has finally gotten a handle on the track. He will start next to his Penske teammate in Joey Logano at P11 but with top-five speed and a mid-tier salary it’s hard to not take a shot on him in a GPP format.
AJ Allmendinger
DK: $8,000 FD: $9,100
Allmendinger is a name that comes to the top of the list every time a race is held at a road course simply for his open-wheel experience. The problem is that it hasn’t really borne fruit at Sonoma. Sure a 2.5 average start is great, but a 30.8 average finish isn’t. Neither is one top-15 in the last four races. He does have 60 laps led here and 28 fastest and will start P5 after running the fastest lap in the first round of qualifying. He ran P9 and P12 in single lap practice runs respectively but didn’t show what his long-run speed is during practice, which makes it hard to know exactly the car he has under him this week. His salary jumped immensely on both sites just because of the track we’re at this week, but he remains at GPP-only option.
Jamie McMurray
DK: $7,600 FD: $9,600
The 1-car is piloted by a sneaky good road racer in Jamie Mac as his one top-five, two top-10s, and three top-15s show in his last four races here. His 10.5 average finish in that span is sixth-best in the field while his practice speeds (both short and long-run) put him in the top-five this week as does his qualifying spot of P4. Chevy’s have shown well here in the past, and this week they have four of the top-five starting spots on the grid, including both Chip Ganassi drivers in Jamie Mac and Kyle Larson, which also bodes well for the 1-car. His salary is more comfortable on DraftKings than FanDuel but with the one less driver it is still quite workable in either format.
Daniel Suarez
DK: $7,500 FD: $9,400
Suarez will roll off the grid in 16th place after showing significantly better than that at practice on Friday with both single lap and 10-lap averages. HIs one race here previously had him finishing P16 after starting P11 but he looked much better on the track this week and in last year’s event. He is also one of five drivers racing in both the K&N series race and the MENCS race which will only help him to get more laps on the track, and more circuits are good for young guys. That being said, at the top of the piece I said how experience pays off here so that relegates him to a GPP lineup rather than cash.
Paul Menard
DK: $6,800 FD: $8,500
Menard is a cheaper guy who has in the past outperformed more expensive drivers here in the past with a top-five, top-10, three top-15s, and four top-20s in the last four races and an average finish of 11.3 after starting 16.3. He starts P15 this week, so not far off his average start, and ran P11 in the first practice. Menard did have an incident in the first practice when he hit the tire stacks on the inside of Turn 11, but it the damage was fixed in that practice. If you’re looking for a cheaper guy who can get a top-10 finish, Menard is a pretty good bet.
Kasey Kahne
DK: $6,600 FD: $7,700
Kahne has been flying under the radar nearly the whole year after switching to a one-car team, but here is another track that could see him scoot up the leaderboard pretty well. In the last four races, an average start of 24th has given way to an average finish of 11.8 with three top-10s and 18 fastest laps. In the last 10 races, a win, two top-fives, six top-10s, and 41 laps led is his record here, which is more than solid for a guy this low in salary. As for this week, he ran the eighth-best 10-lap average in final practice, after spinning out in the first session, and qualified P26, again not far off from his normal. His PD upside and strong history here make him a great play in either lineup, plus the new crew chief should have him trending in a better direction.
William Byron
DK: $6,300 FD: $7,200
I know, I know, I said you shouldn’t be playing or looking at inexperienced or rookie drivers this week, but this guy is different. Byron finished well at two of the three road courses that Xfinity runs each year (Road America and Watkins Glen) plus has been learning from Max Papas and Jeff Gordon, two of the best road race teachers you can have (as he thanked them both in the post-qualifying interview), and has improved each time on the track. Byron will start P8 on Sunday after running the sixth-best five-lap average in the first practice on Friday, but he still remains a GPP play given his inexperience.
Michael McDowell
DK: $5,900 FD: $6,200
McDowell has one top-15 in his last four races here, which was a P14 in last year’s race. The two road courses the MENCS run each year, are two of his best tracks on the schedule and at practice on Friday he showed he has a pretty fast car running P7 and P10 respectively and P8 in combined practice times, with a good five-lap average in the first session. Starting P22 on Sunday gives some upside for a budget-play in either format on either site.