Playbook for FireKeepers Casino 400
Michigan International Speedway
Rolling hills is about the only thing that similar from last week to this week as we go from the Pennsylvania Dutch country of the Pocono Mountains to the Irish Hills of Brooklyn, Michigan for the first trip to Michigan this season. I guess speeds are similar too, actually faster here than Pocono with drivers routinely entering Turn 1 this week at a whopping 217 mph in practice and qualifying, well what we had of it at least.
The track this week is a 2-mile D-shaped oval with banking of 18 degrees in the turns and 12 degrees down the curved front stretch that makes the curve of the “D” shape. It is very similar to Auto Club Speedway (Fontana), for a good reason: Roger Penske owned Michigan International Speedway and then built Auto Club later, using Michigan as the model. The wide racing surface and the sweeping turns allow drivers to carry copious amounts of speed throughout the lap and make it so they barely have to get off the throttle at any point, let alone shift either. That’s a major difference this week with transmissions and driving styles being more like a standard track and less like a road course like it was for Pocono.
There are some handy facts to know about Michigan that can be found in the track breakdown piece that came out on Thursday that talk about some trends affecting winners and position differentials. The tires this week are new ones from Goodyear and are designed to fall off more than ones in the past which will mean the importance of taking tires on pit stops goes up compared to years past when the tire fall off over a run wasn’t that much. There is also still a question of whether a second or third racing groove will come in during the race since there was limited time on the track in pre-qualifying practice and the one practice on Saturday morning that were different weather conditions than race time. If it is a single-groove track, it will make passing a lot more challenging to pull off.
The race is 200 laps in length equaling 400 miles and the stages are 60-60-80 laps in length which again will created interesting pitting strategies to try and gain track position for the end of the stages.
Playbook
Kevin Harvick
DK: $12,000 FD: $12,500
Two top-fives, two top-10s, four top-15s, and 33 laps led is what Harvick has to show for his performances over the last four races here as well as 39 fastest laps. In the last 10 races at MIS, the 4-car has seven top-fives, nine top-15s, and is tied for the best average finish at 7.6. Given his solid history at the track and the outstanding year he’s had this year, it explains why he is the top-priced driver once again. He will start P4 on Sunday but had the fastest single lap and 10-lap average in the only race trim practice on Saturday which suggests he once again has the fastest car at the track. Cash or GPP are both strong options.
Kyle Busch
DK: $11,600 FD: $11,600
Busch has been the biggest competitor to Harvick this season but his speed hasn’t quite been there this week as he was about .5 miles an hour slower in the 10-lap average and more than a mile an hour slower in the single lap speed in what turned out to be final practice. Busch also has a more questionable history here than Harvick of late with two top-10s in the last four and three top-20s with 54 laps led. His average finish is 19 though, after starting on average 8.8 in that span. In the last 10 races he has just one top-five and three top-10s with 64 laps led and an average finish of 24.5. So that history combined with the slower speeds he’s showing this week means he’s a GPP play at best on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr.
DK: $10,700 FD: $12,000
Truex is coming off a win last week at Pocono, his second of the season, with the first coming at Auto Club (a sister to this track). In the past four races here he has a top-five, two top-10s, three top-15s, and 136 laps led with 137 fastest laps. His practice speeds were both better than where he qualified (P11 and P6 compared to starting P17) but he never ran 10 consecutive laps in either of the practices so long run speed is a bit unknown. Knowing that he won on a similar track earlier in the year and he’s got the short-run speed figured out, puts him into the conversation for both formats.
Kyle Larson
DK: $10,500 FD: $11,500
Larson is the DOMINANT driver on the track this week. He’s won the past three races here and finished P5 in the fourth race back while also leading 140 laps and running 75 fastest laps. His 98% top-15 rate is tops in the field and his average rating of 123.3 is remarkably high. That being said, he does have work to do this week after qualifying P26 on Friday afternoon. He did run P2 in practice Saturday and was one of just two cars to lay down a 200+ mph lap and had the third fastest 10-lap average as well. His previous three wins have come from P1, P9, and P12 so there is a history of moving through the field to start with and a fast car once more. His salary this week is too low not to take advantage of in both lineup formats, though he will be the highest owned driver in almost every contest.
Brad Keselowski
DK: $10,100 FD: $11,300
Keselowski is at his home track this week and driving for an owner (Penske) who also owned the track and driving for a manufacturer (Ford) that is based near the track. Not enough pressure? Well there’s also the fact that a native-Michigander (like Keselowski is) has never won a Cup race at the track since it opened, in the mid-60s. He has shown well here in the past with two top-fives and two top-10s in the past four races with 131 laps led. Keselowski qualified on the outside pole and ran in the top-five in both practices, so he has the speed to stick up there. Either works for him.
Joey Logano
DK: $9,800 FD: $10,900
The Penske teammate of Keselowski, Logano has won here twice since the repave was completed in 2012, in fact only he and Larson are the active drivers with multiple wins here since then, with the most recent coming in June of 2016. Three top-10s and 162 laps led finish off of résumé in the last four races. If you go back to the last 10 races, he’s got nine top-10s (the only one with more than eight) and 356 laps led, more the double the next closest (Keselowski at 160) and two wins and five top-fives. Logano qualified P5 and ran P3 in the final session. He should be in a cash lineup or two and a GPP as well.
Clint Bowyer
DK: $9,500 FD: $10,100
Bowyer Is the first mixed bag in this week’s playbook as his history and weekend tell two different stories. In the past four races here, Bowyer has started on average 18.8 and finished 28.0 with no finishes of note or laps led and a dismal 39% top-15 rate. So why is he in the playbook? He ran P4 in final practice and P4 in 10-lap average and P7 in opening practice while qualifying P12. His 10-lap average speed was just a tick behind Kyle Larson’s. SHR has been on fire this year and Bowyer has been a big beneficiary of that. He should be in a GPP lineup as his history is still questionable, but that speed can’t be ignored.
Chase Elliott
DK: $9,000 FD: $10,600
This may just be Chase’s most consistent track on the schedule thus far in his career. There are three top-fives and four top-10s to his credit and all three of the top-fives are P2s behind Larson twice and Logano once, and his worst finish is P8 last fall. Elliott has also led 66 laps with 73 fastest laps (good for third) and is second in top-15 rate at 96%. That being said, things have been a bit of a struggle this season for Hendrick and Chevys as a whole and his speed in the last practice wasn’t convincing as he ran a P17 single lap time and didn’t run 10-consecutive laps either. He will start P13 so if he duplicates the finishes here, that is a nice boost in PD points but it’s questionable whether he can do that. GPP for that reason.
Erik Jones
DK: $8,400 FD: $9,600
In his two races here, he hasn’t finished worse than 13th and finished P3 here last fall. Like Keselowski he is a fellow Michigander and is looking to make history here just the same. He has run eight races between Michigan, Auto Club, and Texas in his career and has four top-10s in that span with seven top-15s. He starts P8 and ran P10 in both single-lap and 10-lap averages in the Saturday practice session. With his solid histories across similar tracks and this one last year and his top-10 speed, he should be a low-end cash play and middling GPP who could, with strategy, move up into the top-five by the race’s end.
Aric Almirola
DK: $8,200 FD: $9,300
Almirola, like Bowyer is a mixed bag this week. He has just one top-20 finish here in the last three trips with an average finish of 21.0. However he qualified P6 and after making some adjustments to race trim, he ran a P13 single lap speed but a P8 10-lap average speed in Saturday’s session. He has also benefitted from the roll that SHR has been on this season as well as being in a Ford here at Michigan, where they seem to perform well. The problem for Almirola is the relatively high starting spot doesn’t give great PD potential from a guy that likely won’t lead many laps. GPP play and hope for a top-five finish for a 45+-point day out of the 10-car.
Kurt Busch
DK: $8,000 FD: $10,300
Kurt is the pole sitter on Sunday after outrunning Keselowski by .2 mph in Friday’s qualifying. That being said, his practice speeds in race trim have been top-10 but certainly significantly slower and his history here shows on top-10 and four top-15s in the last four races. He hasn’t led a lap and has just one fastest lap in the span too. Being a GPP play is the proper fit for a pole sitter most weeks, and once again that’s where Kurt fits on Sunday.
Alex Bowman
DK: $7,800 FD: $7,500
Bowman has one Cup race under his belt here previously, when he filled in for Dale Jr. in 2016. He was running well in that race, qualified P6, until an electrical issue in the engine ended his day early. Bowman didn’t qualify nearly as well for Sunday’s race with a starting spot of P21 in the grid, however he did run P15 in single lap speed and P12 in 10-lap average in Saturday’s practice session. He has two top-10s in the last five races overall this year, which isn’t expected this week but a top-15 certainly is with his speed. A cash or GPP play works here.
Ryan Newman
DK: $7,700 FD: $8,100
Newman has spent most of the season under the radar, but this week he’s shown up again and flashing speed. He qualified 11th for Sunday’s race but has long run speed that places him sixth in Saturday’s practice just a tick behind pole sitter Kurt Busch. The past four races at MIS have been good to Newman as well with a an average finish of 11.8, one top-five, one top-10, and three top-15s and every lap completed. Normally Newman doesn’t make the playbook, but this week he has the history and speed to put him here as well as a nice mid-tier salary making him affordable for either lineup.
Jamie McMurray
DK: $7,600 FD: $9,200
Like his teammate, Kyle Larson, McMurray has a tendency to finish near the front of the pack at Michigan. The two Chip Ganasi teammates and Elliott are the only three in the field with four-straight top-10s here and Jamie Mac has a top-five too. In fact dating back to the start of 2011, he’s only missed a top-20 finish twice out of 14 races. He starts P24 this week but had the 20th fastest single lap Saturday and the 11th-fastest 10-lap average right between Erik Jones and Alex Bowman. If he can pull off another top-10 finish, that’s quite a few PD points from a mid-tier salary and the bonus is he’ll have his teammate right behind him to start the race and the two can piggyback to the front of the field.
Daniel Suarez
DK: $7,300 FD: $9,000
Another mixed bag in that his previous two races have produced an average finish of 30.5 after starting P18 but he’s showing speed this week. He will start P22 but ran P12 in final practice, though didn’t run a long race run which would’ve been helpful. Suarez also has a win here previously, in Xfinity in 2016 when he outraced Kyle Busch for the checkered flag, his first in the series. There isn’t a great history to go off of and the last few times he’s started around here it hasn’t gone well, but there is that hope he can figure it out. Nothing but a low-end GPP play for Suarez.
Paul Menard
DK: $6,800 FD: $7,900
If you look at the past four races at Michigan, Menard has two top-20s (both 18th place finishes) and that’s it. However going back to 2011 here, he has six top-10s in 14 races, including four top-fives (all are P4s). On the season he has three top-15s and a top-10 in the last five races, so he’s figuring some stuff out for the Wood Brothers in the famed 21-car. Menard ran eighth and 11th in the two practices with the ninth-best 10-lap average on Saturday, all while qualifying 15th for the race. At less than $7K and $8K respectively it’s hard to turn down that kind of history in either format on either site.
William Byron
DK: $6,300 FD: $7,100
Byron hasn’t run an MENCS race at Michigan yet, however his Xfinity experience last year resulted in a runner-up finish after starting fourth and leading eight laps. Now this week he ran P8 in race trim practice and qualified P14 on Friday while also running the seventh-best 10-lap average in Saturday’s session. Byron has been on the cusp of figuring things out the past few weeks and now this week he’s at a track he knows with a pretty fast car and a cheap salary on both sites. He’s a GPP play as a budget-saving upside option.
Darrell Wallace Jr.
DK: $6,100 FD: 7,000
Bubba ran in this race a year ago and started 26th but finished 19th good for a +7 PD (one of the only ones above +6 in the field). It’s not much to go off of but in 2016 he ran Michigan in Xfinity and went from 17th at the start to ninth by the end of the race. He has about the same speed as where he qualified, P28, which isn’t great for looking to move up. Wallace has the history of doing it, though in a small sample size and has just two top-20s finishes in the last five races this season but he’s worth the shot in GPP formats.
Ty Dillon
DK: $5,600 FD: $6,500
Dillon has run three of the last four races here at the Cup level and has one top-20 to show for it, though the other two were P24 and P21 respectively. He does has a 14th-place finish here, in the June of 2015 in his first effort at the track. The bonus to Dillon is his PD upside as he’s posted a +8.6 mark in that category in the last three races, tops in the field. For a guy this cheap, that’s all you are looking for out of him to finish off a lineup with a budget-play.