From the rollings hills of Pennsylvania Dutch country to the rolling Irish Hills of Michigan for this week’s FireKepeers Casino 400. The two tracks have one similarity, speed. Pocono allows drivers to top 200 mph down the long front straightaway, but Michigan keeps them there the entire lap. With almost shifting or getting out of the throttle required, it’s a set your sail and drive type track.
At two miles in length for one lap, it’s of equal distance to Auto Club Speedway and the same D-shaped Oval as well. Similar tracks also include Texas Motor Speedway as well for it’s charting topping speed despite being a 1.5-mile track. Like most longer tracks, Michigan has relatively few cautions per race and you have to go all the way back to August of 2006 before you see 10 or more cautions occurring in the race. The last two races, including the stage cautions, had five and three incident cautions respectively and the fewest laps completed in last June’s race, of any car in the 37-car field, was 190 of the 200 laps and in the August race a year ago, 35 of the 39 cars completed at least 196 of 200 laps. So laps completed isn’t a major factor this week.
The track has banked turns of 18 degrees and the front stretch is tilted at 12 degrees as well. While the banking isn’t as steep as others on the schedule, the wide sweeping design of them gives the driver plenty of time to get into each of the turns to carry momentum well through them. That being said, it make it hard to pass at the track with only three drivers in the field at +6 or better in Position Differential. And if you look at the races a year ago, only four drivers led a lap in the June race and five led one in the August race with Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr. leading the majority of those.
Also keep in mind that in five of the last nine races at Michigan, the pole-sitter has won the race and in the seven races before that stretch it didn’t happen once. Michigan is also known as a track that repeat winners are common, in the 97 races that have happened at the track, just 37 different winners have occurred and since the repave happened in early 2012, three drivers have won multiple races out of the 12 total. Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Greg Biffle have all won more than once here in that span. Lastly, the leader with 20 laps to go has NOT won the race 15 of the last 20 times, meaning late passes for the lead are common (i.e. Larson in August 2017 passing with two to go).
Track Data
Last Four Races at Michigan International Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 140 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 162 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 66 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 33 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 131 |
| Jamie McMurray | 4 | 9.3 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 136 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 15.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| Ryan Newman | 4 | 15 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Erik Jones | 2 | 11 | 11.5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 13.3 | 13 | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 41 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 8.8 | 17.3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 54 |
| Austin Dillon | 4 | 15 | 16 | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 19 | 18.3 | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Buescher | 4 | 21.8 | 26.5 | 24.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Kenseth | 4 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Kasey Kahne | 4 | 18.3 | 17.3 | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 24.8 | 24.5 | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Aric Almirola | 3 | 26.7 | 22.7 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Paul Menard | 4 | 28 | 21 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 1 | 26 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 3 | 30.3 | 24.7 | 21.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Suarez | 2 | 18 | 19 | 30.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Michael McDowell | 3 | 27.7 | 28 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 4 | 31 | 30.3 | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clint Bowyer | 4 | 18.8 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Bowman | 1 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 4 | 30 | 31.8 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Cassill | 4 | 32.3 | 31 | 30.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey LaJoie | 2 | 33 | 32 | 30.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BJ McLeod | 1 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Kennington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Smithley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timmy Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Byron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff | Pts./Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
| Kyle Larson | 75 | 98% | 802 | 123.3 | 140.5 | 104.3 | 5.80 | 8.75 | 17.2 | 19 |
| Joey Logano | 58 | 88% | 800 | 107.9 | 149.2 | 85.5 | -7.70 | 10.13 | 41.3 | 22.4 |
| Chase Elliott | 73 | 96% | 802 | 113.9 | 126.5 | 98.4 | 4.00 | 4.13 | 12.6 | 15.5 |
| Kevin Harvick | 39 | 79% | 802 | 103.6 | 123.9 | 86.9 | 2.50 | 2.06 | 20.3 | 16.7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 48 | 92% | 802 | 104.4 | 117.5 | 86 | 1.50 | 8.19 | 13.1 | 18.4 |
| Jamie McMurray | 3 | 72% | 802 | 86.4 | 89.1 | 80 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.7 | 6.4 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 137 | 82% | 801 | 107.6 | 126.4 | 84.9 | -2.20 | 8.50 | 18.8 | 22.7 |
| Denny Hamlin | 21 | 95% | 790 | 96.5 | 108.6 | 87.1 | -10.00 | 1.00 | 12.1 | 9.4 |
| Ryan Newman | 1 | 47% | 802 | 77.7 | 96.8 | 64.8 | 3.20 | 0.13 | 19.1 | 12.9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 11 | 78% | 802 | 90.5 | 108.8 | 81 | -7.80 | 0.00 | 18.3 | 9.5 |
| Erik Jones | 18 | 78% | 402 | 98.4 | 115.8 | 81 | 3.00 | 0.63 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 28 | 62% | 802 | 86.3 | 119 | 64.3 | 0.50 | 2.56 | 32.7 | 22 |
| Kyle Busch | 58 | 56% | 653 | 86.2 | 121.7 | 62.8 | -10.20 | 3.38 | 35.5 | 23.4 |
| Austin Dillon | 2 | 49% | 801 | 73.5 | 93.3 | 43.3 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 19.8 | 30.2 |
| Kurt Busch | 1 | 52% | 802 | 78.8 | 81.3 | 74.2 | 5.20 | 0.00 | 2.5 | 4.6 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 1 | 35% | 799 | 67.6 | 78.2 | 51 | -1.50 | 0.00 | 10.6 | 16.6 |
| Chris Buescher | 3 | 7% | 789 | 52.3 | 72.6 | 29.4 | -2.50 | 0.00 | 20.3 | 22.9 |
| Matt Kenseth | 32 | 78% | 802 | 89.2 | 106.7 | 70.2 | -4.20 | 0.50 | 17.5 | 19 |
| Kasey Kahne | 5 | 47% | 738 | 74.1 | 93 | 63.9 | -3.20 | 0.00 | 18.9 | 10.2 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 3 | 12% | 664 | 58.1 | 77 | 45.5 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 18.9 | 12.6 |
| Aric Almirola | 0 | 11% | 600 | 57.5 | 70.5 | 47.7 | 5.70 | 0.00 | 13 | 9.8 |
| Paul Menard | 1 | 24% | 796 | 62.8 | 75.6 | 51.1 | 5.00 | 0.06 | 12.8 | 11.7 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 4% | 200 | 60.3 | 60.3 | 60.3 | 7.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 0 | 5% | 602 | 53.3 | 56.5 | 51.5 | 8.60 | 0.00 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| Daniel Suarez | 5 | 33% | 338 | 71 | 78.9 | 63.1 | -12.50 | 0.38 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Michael McDowell | 0 | 1% | 595 | 45.9 | 49.8 | 39.5 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 3.9 | 6.4 |
| David Ragan | 1 | 1% | 793 | 41.9 | 45 | 39.8 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 6 | 39% | 762 | 66.4 | 86.8 | 50.7 | -9.20 | 0.00 | 20.4 | 15.7 |
| Alex Bowman | 5 | 18% | 195 | 70 | 70 | 70 | -24.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 0 | 0% | 779 | 37.2 | 40.9 | 34.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.7 | 2.9 |
| Landon Cassill | 0 | 1% | 770 | 37.8 | 46.5 | 29.4 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0% | 396 | 37.7 | 39.2 | 36.2 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| BJ McLeod | 0 | 0% | 178 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Kennington | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Garrett Smithley | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Timmy Hill | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| William Byron | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 802 total laps run in the last four races at Michigan
Top-15 Drivers over the last 10 races at Michigan
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Larson | 8 | 13 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 149 |
| Joey Logano | 10 | 5 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 356 |
| Matt Kenseth | 10 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 159 |
| Kurt Busch | 10 | 13.4 | 14 | 14.8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 89 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 12.6 | 16 | 18.7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 122 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 174 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 10 | 14.7 | 14.5 | 13.8 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 136 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 160 |
| Paul Menard | 10 | 18.9 | 15.9 | 13.8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 66 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 16.4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 25 |
| Jamie McMurray | 10 | 15.7 | 15.6 | 13.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10 | 19.1 | 18.1 | 19.1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Austin Dillon | 10 | 13.2 | 16.2 | 15.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| Kyle Busch | 10 | 10.8 | 20.6 | 24.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 64 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Kyle Larson | 95 | 76% | 1434 | 101.1 | 140.5 | 53.6 | 2.10 | 4.66 | 86.9 |
| Joey Logano | 132 | 89% | 1938 | 113.2 | 149.2 | 85.5 | -2.60 | 8.90 | 63.7 |
| Matt Kenseth | 124 | 75% | 1910 | 96 | 148.8 | 40.3 | -2.30 | 3.98 | 108.5 |
| Kurt Busch | 49 | 63% | 1928 | 88.4 | 122.8 | 59.1 | -1.40 | 2.23 | 63.7 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 131 | 54% | 1782 | 87.3 | 130.7 | 57.5 | -6.10 | 3.05 | 73.2 |
| Kevin Harvick | 155 | 87% | 1939 | 113 | 135.1 | 86.9 | 2.30 | 4.35 | 48.2 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 182 | 65% | 1912 | 92.5 | 126.4 | 33.2 | 0.90 | 3.40 | 93.2 |
| Brad Keselowski | 80 | 95% | 1940 | 105 | 117.5 | 86 | 0.90 | 4.00 | 31.5 |
| Paul Menard | 9 | 54% | 1934 | 82.1 | 105.9 | 51.1 | 5.10 | 0.03 | 54.8 |
| Chase Elliott | 73 | 96% | 802 | 113.9 | 126.5 | 98.4 | 4.00 | 4.13 | 28.1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 29 | 63% | 1925 | 85 | 108.6 | 54.6 | -5.80 | 0.63 | 54 |
| Jamie McMurray | 13 | 56% | 1936 | 82.5 | 100.6 | 55.5 | 2.20 | 0.63 | 45.1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 16 | 47% | 1864 | 77.6 | 92 | 50.7 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 41.3 |
| Austin Dillon | 29 | 52% | 1934 | 78.9 | 112.3 | 43.3 | -2.70 | 0.55 | 69 |
| Kyle Busch | 63 | 53% | 1630 | 78.6 | 121.7 | 35.7 | -13.70 | 1.60 | 86 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 1,940 total laps run over the last 10 races at Michigan
Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (last 18 races combined)
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Larson | 17 | 12.6 | 12 | 14.5 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 331 |
| Kyle Busch | 17 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 423 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 18 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 14.7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 194 |
| Joey Logano | 18 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 440 |
| Kevin Harvick | 18 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 502 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 18 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 724 |
| Brad Keselowski | 18 | 8 | 10.1 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 492 |
| Kurt Busch | 18 | 12.9 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 113 |
| Matt Kenseth | 15 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 280 |
| Chase Elliott | 12 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 80 |
| Denny Hamlin | 17 | 7.6 | 12.4 | 16.2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 160 |
| Jamie McMurray | 18 | 15.8 | 14 | 11.3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 17 | 1 |
| Ryan Newman | 18 | 15.4 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 6 |
| Ryan Blaney | 15 | 9.9 | 14.7 | 17.9 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 148 |
| Erik Jones | 8 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 69 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts./Race | Range |
| Kyle Larson | 256 | 75% | 3676 | 97 | 144.3 | 29.8 | -1.90 | 4.87 | 114.5 |
| Kyle Busch | 317 | 75% | 3880 | 101.1 | 148 | 62.8 | -2.20 | 6.22 | 85.2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 194 | 61% | 4152 | 91.7 | 127.4 | 60.6 | 0.50 | 2.69 | 66.8 |
| Joey Logano | 214 | 81% | 4246 | 102.8 | 149.2 | 44.1 | -0.80 | 6.11 | 105.1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 416 | 79% | 4313 | 108.5 | 144 | 59.6 | -3.70 | 6.97 | 84.4 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 459 | 81% | 4069 | 109 | 150 | 55.9 | -1.30 | 10.06 | 94.1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 210 | 82% | 4166 | 100.4 | 145 | 77.5 | -3.00 | 6.83 | 67.5 |
| Kurt Busch | 111 | 64% | 4321 | 88.3 | 135.4 | 36 | 1.40 | 1.57 | 99.4 |
| Matt Kenseth | 220 | 82% | 3439 | 100.1 | 148.8 | 65.3 | -3.40 | 4.67 | 83.5 |
| Chase Elliott | 150 | 89% | 3036 | 101.5 | 126.5 | 67.7 | 8.40 | 1.67 | 58.8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 103 | 76% | 3918 | 91.1 | 116.7 | 45.1 | -8.60 | 2.35 | 71.6 |
| Jamie McMurray | 19 | 64% | 4322 | 83.7 | 105.4 | 64.4 | 4.50 | 0.01 | 41 |
| Ryan Newman | 25 | 44% | 4288 | 74.9 | 96.8 | 51.7 | -0.20 | 0.08 | 45.1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 119 | 64% | 3385 | 84.9 | 121.8 | 30.8 | -8.00 | 2.47 | 91 |
| Erik Jones | 40 | 80% | 2139 | 94.4 | 115.8 | 58.3 | 3.00 | 2.16 | 57.5 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 4,325 total laps run at the last six races at Auto Club, Michigan, and Texas each
Momentum
This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over that stretch.
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Pos | Avg. | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Diff. | Rating |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 115.8 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -0.6 | 104.5 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 6.4 | 7 | 12.4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 113.6 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 9 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -0.6 | 96.4 |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.2 | 100.7 |
| Kurt Busch | 5 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -0.2 | 93.9 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 9 | 11 | 12.4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3.4 | 99.5 |
| Denny Hamlin | 5 | 6.6 | 10 | 12.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -6.2 | 94.1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 5 | 19.2 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8.6 | 90.6 |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2.6 | 90.3 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 5 | 12.8 | 16.2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1.8 | 76.5 |
| Daniel Suarez | 5 | 12.6 | 17.4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3.4 | 75.9 |
| Clint Bowyer | 5 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 86.2 |
| Aric Almirola | 5 | 20 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10.6 | 87.7 |
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -11.4 | 95.2 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers
DraftKings
| Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 5.91 | 39 | Garrett Smithley | 0.00 |
| 2 | Kevin Harvick | 5.71 | 38 | Ryan Newman | 2.95 |
| 3 | D.J. Kennington | 5.52 | 37 | Erik Jones | 3.24 |
| 4 | Aric Almirola | 4.98 | 36 | Jamie McMurray | 3.28 |
| 5 | Clint Bowyer | 4.80 | 35 | Matt Kenseth | 3.36 |
| 6 | AJ Allmendinger | 4.69 | 34 | Corey Lajoie | 3.58 |
| 7 | David Ragan | 4.56 | 33 | BJ McLeod | 3.61 |
| 8 | Denny Hamlin | 4.50 | 32 | Timmy Hill | 3.70 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 4.48 | 31 | Gray Gaulding | 3.77 |
| 10 | Kurt Busch | 4.44 | 30 | Austin Dillon | 3.78 |
FanDuel
| Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landon Cassill | 9.27 | 38 | Garrett Smithley | 0.00 |
| 2 | Ross Chastain | 8.53 | 37 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4.80 |
| 3 | Matt DiBenedetto | 8.37 | 36 | Brad Keselowski | 4.81 |
| 4 | Gray Gaulding | 7.99 | 35 | Kyle Larson | 5.04 |
| 5 | Ty Dillon | 7.13 | 34 | Erik Jones | 5.18 |
| 6 | Michael McDowell | 7.09 | 33 | Ryan Blaney | 5.18 |
| 7 | Bubba Wallace | 6.95 | 32 | Chase Elliott | 5.20 |
| 8 | Timmy Hill | 6.85 | 31 | Kevin Harvick | 5.21 |
| 9 | David Ragan | 6.74 | 30 | Jamie McMurray | 5.25 |
| 10 | Alex Bowman | 6.73 | 29 | Kurt Busch | 5.34 |
Points Changes at Michigan
DraftKings
| 17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
| Kyle Larson | 85.50 | 43.74 | 41.8 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 74.50 | 43.6 | 30.9 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 49.00 | 27.97 | 21.0 |
| Jamie McMurray | 42.50 | 24.93 | 17.6 |
| Ty Dillon | 41.00 | 23.69 | 17.3 |
| Matt Kenseth | 40.00 | 23.88 | 16.1 |
| Chase Elliott | 51.50 | 36.61 | 14.9 |
| Erik Jones | 39.50 | 27.19 | 12.3 |
| Ryan Newman | 33.00 | 22.71 | 10.3 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 32.00 | 23.81 | 8.2 |
| Paul Menard | 30.00 | 25.77 | 4.2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 44.50 | 41.41 | 3.1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 37.00 | 34.41 | 2.6 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 33.00 | 30.46 | 2.5 |
| Joey Logano | 45.00 | 43.93 | 1.1 |
| Kurt Busch | 35.00 | 35.54 | -0.5 |
| Corey LaJoie | 16.00 | 17.88 | -1.9 |
| Michael McDowell | 20.00 | 25.52 | -5.5 |
| Landon Cassill | 16.00 | 22.83 | -6.8 |
| Kasey Kahne | 18.00 | 25.03 | -7.0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 16.00 | 23.03 | -7.0 |
| Kyle Busch | 60.00 | 68.52 | -8.5 |
| David Ragan | 15.00 | 26 | -11.0 |
| Daniel Suarez | 16.00 | 28 | -12.0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 25.00 | 39.48 | -14.5 |
| Austin Dillon | 8.00 | 27.94 | -19.9 |
| Chris Buescher | -4.00 | 25.15 | -29.2 |
| Ryan Blaney | 1.00 | 37.64 | -36.6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 27.50 | 68.56 | -41.1 |
| Clint Bowyer | -3.00 | 45.62 | -48.6 |
| AVG +/- | 15.1 |
FanDuel
New for this week and going forward is the points changes for FanDuel. It's forumlated based off of FanDuel's scoring and categories and it compares what the driver put up in this race last year and their 2018 season average per race. It gives you an idea of who outperformed, underperformed, or produced about the same point totals at this track.
| 17 Race | 18 Season | FD Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg FD Pts. | Season AVG |
| Kyle Larson | 72.6 | 57.92 | 14.68 |
| Jamie McMurray | 57.5 | 48.28 | 9.22 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 59.5 | 50.41 | 9.09 |
| Chase Elliott | 64 | 55.10 | 8.90 |
| Matt Kenseth | 49 | 43.45 | 5.55 |
| Ty Dillon | 49.5 | 46.37 | 3.13 |
| Ryan Newman | 48 | 45.95 | 2.05 |
| Corey LaJoie | 31.7 | 30.11 | 1.59 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 59.2 | 57.66 | 1.54 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 52.5 | 53.17 | -0.67 |
| Erik Jones | 48.5 | 49.69 | -1.19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 57.5 | 59.16 | -1.66 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 45.5 | 48.66 | -3.16 |
| Joey Logano | 60 | 63.64 | -3.64 |
| Kurt Busch | 50.5 | 54.96 | -4.46 |
| Michael McDowell | 37.5 | 42.53 | -5.03 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 46.5 | 52.00 | -5.50 |
| Paul Menard | 43 | 49.60 | -6.60 |
| Kasey Kahne | 37.5 | 45.13 | -7.63 |
| Brad Keselowski | 43.2 | 54.38 | -11.18 |
| Kyle Busch | 56.5 | 68.32 | -11.82 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 32.9 | 46.05 | -13.15 |
| Daniel Suarez | 35 | 49.45 | -14.45 |
| Landon Cassill | 30.6 | 46.37 | -15.77 |
| David Ragan | 31.8 | 49.20 | -17.40 |
| Kevin Harvick | 45.5 | 65.12 | -19.62 |
| Austin Dillon | 29.4 | 51.13 | -21.73 |
| Ryan Blaney | 26.5 | 51.78 | -25.28 |
| Chris Buescher | 18.4 | 45.74 | -27.34 |
| Clint Bowyer | 23.5 | 62.42 | -38.92 |
| AVG+/- | 10.40 |
Drivers To Watch This Week:
Kyle Larson: Larson has DOMINATED this track in the last four with three-straight wins and a fifth place finish in the fourth race. He has led 140 laps in that span and registered 75 fastest laps, both are second in the field in those categories. His 98% top-15 rate and 123.3 average driver rating are both tops in the field as you would expect from a guy that’s won that often. Larson is the fourth-most expensive driver on both sites, which is a great discount for a guy who should be the prohibitive favorite to win once again, and become one of only nine drivers ever to win four-straight races at one track.
Martin Truex Jr: Truex is coming off his second win of the season last week at Pocono and has had a solid history here as well. One top-five, two top-10s, three top-15s, 136 laps led, and 137 fastest laps is what he’s compiled in the last four races at the track. The laps led are third, and fastest laps are best in the field, nearly double that of Larson’s total in second. If he is on the beginning of a roll like he got on last year, it could be another day spent running up front and competing for the win for the 78-team.
Joey Logano: Logano is the only other driver to get a win in the last four races, and also has two wins here since the start of 2012. the 22-car has also led more laps than any other with 162 in the last four and 356 in the last 10, more than double his teammate who has the second most at 160 in the same span. Aside from the wins, Logano has nine top-10s in the last 10 races and is tied for the best average finish, with Kevin Harvick, at 7.6 over that span. The Ford’s love to try and make a statement in Ford’s backyard this week and with him looking better this year than last, Logano could challenge Larson when all is said and done.
Chase Elliott: Elliott has run four races here in his MENCS career, the first three were second place finishes (behind Logano then Larson) and last fall was a P8. Chase has also led 66 laps during his time at the track and recorded 73 fastest laps while spending 96% of his time in the top-15. Elliott also has the second best average driver rating in the last four races as well. All of that points to his consistency at the 2-mile track and why he is one to watch this week as he still tries to lockdown his first ever win in the Cup series.
Brad Keselowski: Like his Penske teammate, Keselowski has been out in front quite a bit here, but doesn’t have the win to show for it. Keselowski has two top-fives, two top-10s, four top-20s, and 131 laps led in the last four races. If you expand that out to the last 10 trips to the track, he has three top-fives, six top-10s, and 160 laps led (second in the field) with 80 fastest laps. Michigan is Keselowski’s home track but one that’s alluded him in the win column so far. When asked in interviews, it’s clear that it’s at the top of his list of tracks to win at and with his recent string of good finishes this season, it could happen…finally.
Jamie McMurray: Jamie Mac is a bit of a sleeper this week despite being in the mid-tier of salaries on both sites. He has finished in the top-10 in each of the last four races, one of only three drivers in the field to do that along with Larson and Elliott. Now he doesn’t have any laps led and only three fastest laps and only a +1.5 PD in that span, however consistent finishes are hard to come by. He is just a points play for the finish and won’t get you many if any dominator points but a solid 40+-point race from his salary shouldn’t be over looked.