DFS NASCAR: Pocono 400 Track Breakdown

After two-straight weeks at Charlotte Motor Speedway it’s time for NASCAR to hit the road once more and head north to the rolling hills of the Pennsylvania countryside. Long Pond, Pennsylvania is the town hosting this weekend’s race at the Tricky Triangle.

The Pocono 400 is made up of 160 laps around the 2.5-mile layout that is Pocono Raceway. It is an unusual track in a few different ways with the biggest being that it is in fact a triangle. That’s right three straightaways and three turns comprise the tricky track. The other unusual thing about the track is the flatness of it. All three turns are banked at different degrees and only one (Turn 1) is over double-digits. Each turn was modeled after a different race track and fit together by using two of the longest straightaways on the schedule in the front stretch and that between turns 1 and 2.

With the race being just 160 laps long, there are little chances for dominator points in this race in terms of laps led and fastest laps. Other things to keep in mind about this race are that in 14 of the last 24 races here (dating back 12 years) the pole sitter hasn’t finished worse than P3 which means losing ground isn’t that big of a concern up front. Of the last eight winners, all but one has started P9 or better, the only exception was Chris Buescher who start P22 but won when he didn’t pit before a weather related shortening of the race. There are only three drivers in the field with a +6 position differential in the last four races but several in the +5 range indicating there isn’t a lot of moving up through the field at this track and as for cautions there haven’t been many in any of the last five races and the last race here had just two non-stage cautions.

While this track is the same length as Daytona and just shy of Talladega’s distance, this is not a restrictor plate track and thus speeds will go over 200 mph for much of the race without nearly any pack racing meaning single-file lines will rule the day. A lot of the passing that does happen here gets done in the turns as one driver will get the inside line through the corner compared to the other. One other thing to note on the this is that there have been four different winners in the last four races, out of the last 10 races there are eight different winners in the field so repeat winners are very hard to come by here.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Pocono Raceway

*Laps Comp. is out of 618 laps run in the last four races at Pocono

Top-15 Drivers over the Last 10 Races at Pocono Raceway

*Laps Comp. is out of 1,578 total laps run in the last 10 races at Pocono.

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (Since 2013)

Laps Comp. is out of 2,399 total laps run at Pocono and Indianapolis 

Momentum

This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over that stretch.

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Driver Values

Draft Kings

FanDuel

Points Changes at Pocono Raceway

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Kurt Busch: Busch has a win, two top-fives, three top-10s, and four top-15s with 32 laps led in the last four races. His average finish of seventh is the third-best in that category of drivers with four races recently. In the last five races overall this season, Busch has the second-highest average finish of 6.8, just behind Denny Hamlin at 6.4. The consistency of Busch here is among the best in the field and his salaries in the mid-tier on both sites make him easily playable in either format.

Kyle Busch: Kyle, like his brother, also has a win here in the last four races, plus three top-10s in addition. He is also the only in the field with more than 60 laps led in the last four, and in fact has run 178 out in front. Busch also has 82 fastest laps in that span, more than the next closest driver has laps led. He also had the highest driver average at 115.2 despite moving backwards on average from his starting spot of 7.5 to finish on average at 12.5. Once again he is near the top of the salary lists but still affordable after coming off his absolutely dominant win in the Coca-Cola 600 by leading 377 of 400 laps in the race. 

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is as good here as you can be without having a win. He’s posted four top-five finishes in the last four races and an average finish of 3.8 in that span and is one of only four drivers with an average rating over 100. Keselowski also has six top-fives, seven top-10s, and nine top-20s in the last 10 races. Penske cars tend to do well on longer, speedier track and Pocono is just one more example of that.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick isn’t as dominant here as tracks previous to this but he is still a solid play. Three top-fives, four top-10s and 16 laps led in the last four races speak to his solidness here as do his 65 fastest laps. Harvick also has the second-highest average rating of 114 in the recent run and does have five top-fives, seven top-10s, and eight top-15s in the last 10 races here. Once more he is clearly the highest-priced driver on both sites and makes it tough to work into lineups in Draft Kings.

Erik Jones: Jones has only two MENCS races under his belt here at the Tricky Triangle but in that span he has shown he’s quite good here. An average finish of 5.5 with a top-five and two top-10s plus 24 laps led. Jones also has the highest top-15 rate in the field and the only one over 90%, which has to account for something. He is another mid-priced option that can fit into either format depending on the speed he shows this week.