Who’s up for some Saturday night racing? The run of wild tracks and short ones alike, we are getting back to a fairly standard 1.5-mile circuit this week at Kansas Speedway, just west of Kansas City (both Missouri and Kansas versions). The track is one of the newer ones to the NASCAR schedule, being added in 2001 with Chicagoland Speedway opening the same year and Kentucky opening after, and getting a second race per year in 2011. A redesign of the track in 2012 changed the banking to progressive banking of 17-20 degrees, from the uniform 15 degrees it was previously. The banking has added more grooves to the track but it can still prove tricky to pass on at times.

In the last four Spring races here, there have been 19-20 lead changes per race (keep in mind a driver has to finish a lap as the leader for it to be considered a change, that is to say that if for example Martin Truex Jr. gets passed into Turn 1 but then regains the lead by the time the start/finish line comes back around, the lead change doesn’t count) and 8-9 incident cautions per race. During that span the winner has come from P3, P6, P19, and P13 from most recent to oldest race and going back to the first race of 2013 is the last time a pole sitter won the April/May race at Kansas. Overall the pole winner has won three out of the last 10 races here and a P5 starting spot or better has won five times overall (including the three pole sitters) for an average starting spot of 7.3 for the winner.

Aside from being a night race, it also marks the last points-race before the All-Star Race and Monster Energy Open. Both of which happen next weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway and if there are DFS contest for them, I will provide a simple playbook for the small field of drivers for the exhibition races. It is also the first race back in a MENCS car for Matt Kenseth since being left without a ride at season’s end a year ago. He will be taking the place of Trevor Bayne in the 6-car for Roush-Fenway Racing and thus Kenseth’s figures and not Bayne’s are in the track data this week.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Kansas Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr42.306.56.822244367
Kyle Busch45.0055.313444240
Kevin Harvick411.8053.513444121
Ryan Blaney416.307.86.50334486
Kurt Busch410.0011.89.3022344
Matt Kenseth45.007.815.501233119
Brad Keselowski410.0014.315.80123322
Chase Elliott412.501718.3012224
Jimmie Johnson419.3011.514011230
Denny Hamlin45.3011.320011226
Joey Logano49.8013.824.8011115
Austin Dillon412.8014.510.5002342
AJ Allmendinger421.502019.5002220
Kasey Kahne424.801514001340
Ryan Newman413.5018.523001220
Clint Bowyer425.8020.518.3001133
Chris Buescher423.8022.317.3001120
Aric Almirola423.0024.826.3001120
Jamie McMurray416.0023.326.3001111
Kyle Larson416.0016.327.5001110
Daniel Suarez210.0016.521.5001110
Alex Bowman15.00167001110
Ricky Stenhouse Jr413.8019.818000230
Michael McDowell428.502520.3000120
Paul Menard417.0023.326.8000120
Ty Dillon225.502215000120
David Ragan430.8028.524.8000021
Erik Jones219.001728.5000002
Matt DiBenedetto426.0029.327000001
Landon Cassill434.0029.525.5000000
Reed Sorenson438.3033.829.3000000
Corey LaJoie236.003127000000
Gray Gaulding229.0033.531000000
Timmy Hill139.003528000000
Derrike Cope128.003739000000
Cody Ware00.0000000000
Darrell Wallace Jr00.0000000000
Ross Chastain00.0000000000
William Byron00.0000000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Martin Truex Jr21388%1068125.4144.997.8-4.5022.9419.527.6
Kyle Busch9697%1068120.6129.8104.4-0.3015.009.216.2
Kevin Harvick13494%1068122.3137.4114.98.307.5615.17.4
Ryan Blaney4087%1068102.6128.476.59.805.3825.826.1
Kurt Busch1571%106891.2113.972.80.700.2522.718.4
Matt Kenseth6884%998102.7119.876.8-10.507.4417.125.9
Brad Keselowski3578%99184.396.566.9-5.801.3812.217.4
Chase Elliott3553%105685.3100.573.1-5.800.2515.212.2
Jimmie Johnson3683%106890.5112.675.55.300.0022.115
Denny Hamlin1071%104185.296.668.1-14.700.3811.417.1
Joey Logano1263%97382.1115.859.3-15.000.3133.722.8
Austin Dillon162%106883.796.7792.300.13134.7
AJ Allmendinger831%102364.492.642.32.000.0028.222.1
Kasey Kahne554%106879.787.370.210.800.007.69.5
Ryan Newman053%89170.392.249-9.500.0021.921.3
Clint Bowyer428%106561.573.447.47.500.1911.914.1
Chris Buescher312%106663.373.849.76.500.0010.513.6
Aric Almirola116%76757.275.728-3.300.0018.529.2
Jamie McMurray938%96269.993.246.7-10.300.0623.323.2
Kyle Larson2361%85780.9107.862-11.500.0026.918.9
Daniel Suarez051%464768567-11.500.0099
Alex Bowman1257%267949494-2.000.0000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1136%105769.88649.2-4.200.0016.220.6
Michael McDowell28%106552.759.938.78.200.007.214
Paul Menard219%86559.871.247.3-9.800.0011.412.5
Ty Dillon05%53466.668.364.810.500.001.71.8
David Ragan07%105647.460.833.56.000.0613.413.9
Erik Jones752%46471.377.665-9.500.256.36.3
Matt DiBenedetto14%104144.147.739.4-1.000.063.64.7
Landon Cassill12%106243.651398.500.007.44.6
Reed Sorenson00%104834.741.827.49.000.007.17.3
Corey LaJoie00%52640.242.537.99.000.002.32.3
Gray Gaulding00%49032.333.431.2-2.000.001.11.1
Timmy Hill00%25931.231.231.211.000.0000
Derrike Cope00%21426.826.826.8-11.000.0000
Cody Ware00%00000.00 00
Darrell Wallace Jr00%00000.00 00
Ross Chastain00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00   

*Laps Comp. is out of 1,068 total run at Kansas over the last four races.

Top-15 Drivers over the Last 10 Races at Kansas Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick107.75.65.9267910513
Joey Logano108.711.215.326666294
Martin Truex Jr108.19.99.924589508
Kyle Busch98.612.412.915677243
Jimmie Johnson1018.712.411.81467854
Matt Kenseth1011.29.511.712599458
Kurt Busch1011.914.913.90357824
Kasey Kahne1019.412.311.90347924
Ryan Blaney615.710.8100345586
Denny Hamlin911.612.819023456
Brad Keselowski10913.815.101578160
Kyle Larson814.61521012443
Clint Bowyer1022.420.119.4012363
Chase Elliott412.51718.3012224
Aric Almirola101719.919.7004560

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kevin Harvick33189%2671122.3138.4106.41.8012.8332
Joey Logano17974%2412101.6144.753-6.607.3591.7
Martin Truex Jr28976%2671108.5144.959-1.8012.7085.9
Kyle Busch10670%217297.1129.850.1-4.306.7579.7
Jimmie Johnson16376%258595.9118.2426.901.3576.2
Matt Kenseth20476%2602105.514676.8-0.5011.4569.2
Kurt Busch3565%247687.1113.936.9-2.000.6077
Kasey Kahne6569%267091.1115.570.27.500.6045.3
Ryan Blaney4675%160094.6128.460.85.703.5867.6
Denny Hamlin1267%231584.5107.368.1-7.400.1739.2
Brad Keselowski10373%255089.7118.466.9-6.104.0051.5
Kyle Larson10863%192387118.460-6.400.0958.4
Clint Bowyer1130%256668.811047.43.000.0862.6
Chase Elliott3553%105685.3100.573.1-5.800.2527.4
Aric Almirola334%236271.297.228-2.700.0069.2

*Laps Comp. is out of 2,672 total laps run at Kansas in the last 10 races.

Top-15 Drivers over the Last 20 Races on Similar Tracks (Since 2015)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr206.98.28.1691117201008
Brad Keselowski2088.99.549151618681
Kevin Harvick209.48.310.139151718787
Kyle Larson2011.811.914.639121214162
Kyle Busch197.68.19.728141617921
Joey Logano206.99.512.118151515385
Denny Hamlin209.512.113.51711131657
Chase Elliott1510.211.113.408101010187
Ryan Blaney1612.411.411.5069121495
Ryan Newman2015.315.514.6056121618
Matt Kenseth198.29.912.904111516141
Kurt Busch1911.513.513.4048141683
Jimmie Johnson2013.413.515.40271316299
Jamie McMurray2013.31615.90110131533
Austin Dillon2014.416.616.40158166

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Martin Truex Jr74681%508311314963.6-1.2012.6085.4
Brad Keselowski45688%4822104.915051.8-1.508.5198.2
Kevin Harvick49883%4826112.115062.2-0.709.8487.8
Kyle Larson20177%467296140.553.3-2.802.0387.2
Kyle Busch47485%4667111.3148.462.8-2.1012.1285.6
Joey Logano21881%477299.9149.247.2-5.204.81102
Denny Hamlin10876%480392117.146.6-4.000.7170.5
Chase Elliott18878%3553100.8129.173.1-3.203.1256
Ryan Blaney9975%389093.2128.4630.901.4865.4
Ryan Newman4154%490080.1116.7490.700.2367.7
Matt Kenseth16885%470396.3119.870.2-4.701.8649.6
Kurt Busch9867%471785.7125.667.7-1.901.0957.9
Jimmie Johnson24970%480690.8130.353.2-2.003.7477.1
Jamie McMurray4061%486981.5113.546.7-2.600.4166.8
Austin Dillon3949%500777.9104.443.3-2.000.0861.1

*Laps Comp. is out of 5,084 combined laps run at races at Kansas, Kentucky, Chicago, Michigan, and Las Vegas since the begining of 2015.

Momentum

This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over that stretch.

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Kyle Busch512.87.810.2333442.6115.5
Kevin Harvick510.883.8145557115.5
Joey Logano59.46.86.6124552.8109.1
Kurt Busch5410.29.402344-5.4100.9
Chase Elliott59.814.211.402244-1.682.7
Ricky Stenhouse Jr510.813.214.402233-3.681.8
Clint Bowyer510.61211.801444-1.290.9
Jimmie Johnson515.614.213013442.690.8
Daniel Suarez514.617.412.601344275.9
Kyle Larson58.817.21901333-10.287.5
Denny Hamlin59.61314.401244-4.891.8
Ryan Blaney511.89.617.601223-5.889.4
Alex Bowman512.219.216.401223-4.277.1
Martin Truex Jr57.819.222.201122-14.477.9
Erik Jones511.618.42001123-8.470.8

 

Points Changes at Kansas Speedway

The 2017 race points are the points scored in this specific race a year ago. The season DK points average is what the driver is averaging for the races thus far in 2018. It's a good way to see how much over or right on the average that driver did at this track a year prior. Clearly, each race is different, but it's a way to gauge who fits what lineup format better. The drivers closer to their average might be better for cash whereas those to the more extreme ends of the table could fit GPPs better with a boom-or-bust type showing. The Avg. +/- number means that the whole field in general has either done better or worse than their season averages by that number.

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr105.0040.0864.9
Ryan Blaney76.7546.3830.4
Kyle Busch67.2563.274.0
Brad Keselowski67.0040.2726.7
Clint Bowyer56.7550.835.9
Kevin Harvick56.0070.81-14.8
Michael McDowell56.0021.3434.7
Daniel Suarez45.0028.0417.0
Kasey Kahne45.0024.3820.6
David Ragan44.0024.6719.3
Kyle Larson43.5036.946.6
Jamie McMurray41.0025.415.6
Ty Dillon38.0024.513.5
Landon Cassill38.0021.216.8
Matt Kenseth34.00034.0
Erik Jones32.5026.256.3
Reed Sorenson31.0010.4220.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr29.0025.63.4
Chris Buescher28.0027.430.6
Jimmie Johnson28.0031.15-3.2
Corey LaJoie28.0012.815.2
Timmy Hill27.0012.3314.7
Austin Dillon23.5029.77-6.3
Kurt Busch12.7537.52-24.8
Denny Hamlin7.0043.15-36.2
AJ Allmendinger5.0027.27-22.3
Matt DIBenedetto3.0024.54-21.5
Gray Gaulding1.0017.06-16.1
Chase Elliott-2.0033.56-35.6
Derrike Cope-6.006-12.0
Paul Menard-8.0020.9-28.9
Ryan Newman-17.0029.19-46.2
Aric Almirola-19.0041.15-60.2
Joey Logano-28.0046.48-74.5
  AVG. +/-22.7

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick6.0538Derrike Cope1.40
2Kyle Busch5.6537Cody Ware2.05
3Clint Bowyer5.6536Reed Sorenson2.17
4Ryan Blaney5.2735Corey Lajoie2.51
5Aric Almirola4.7834Timmy Hill2.68
6Chris Buescher4.7333Paul Menard2.99
7Matt DiBenedetto4.7232Erik Jones3.24
8Joey Logano4.6931Chase Elliott3.26
9Denny Hamlin4.5430Jamie McMurray3.34
10Landon Cassill4.5129Jimmie Johnson3.35

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Landon Cassill9.2637Matt Kenseth0.00
2Matt DiBenedetto8.8436Derrike Cope3.60
3Ross Chastain8.7835Corey LaJoie3.85
4David Ragan8.2734Martin Truex Jr.4.50
5Gray Gaulding8.2133Jimmie Johnson4.95
6Ty Dillon7.9632Brad Keselowski5.05
7AJ Allmendinger7.4531Ryan Blaney5.11
8Chris Buescher7.0730Kyle Larson5.13
9Darrell Wallace Jr.7.0729Kevin Harvick5.17
10Austin Dillon6.6928Erik Jones5.21

 

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex absolutely crushed this track last year with two wins including one from the pole in the Fall race. Overall in the last four races the two wins account for his top-fives as well as his top-10s with four top-15s total. The 367 laps led is the most in the field (127 more than second) and his 213 fastest laps are nearly as much as the next two on the list combined. Truex has completed all 1,068 laps run in that span and posted the best average rating of 125.4. The last two and a half seasons have seen the 78-car dominate the 1.5-mile tracks and this weekend could be no different once more.

Kyle Busch: Busch is coming off a down weekend at Dover after suffering a broken drive shaft halfway through the race. His stats at Kansas however should lift his spirits as he has a win, three top-fives, four top-10s, and 240 laps led (second) in the last four trips here. An average finish of 5.3 is second best in the field to go along with a 120.6 driver rating that ranks third and a 97% top-15 rate that is tops in the field. Even with the issue last week, Bush is still arguably the hottest driver on the track coming into Kansas and his history here suggests that run should keep going.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick is actually more expensive than both Truex and Busch on DK by $500 over Busch and $900 over Truex, while on FD he is $1,000 more than Truex and $1,300 more than Busch. Why that pricey? Well he did win his fourth race of the year last week and has a win, three top-fives, four top-10s, and 121 laps led in the last four races at Kansas. His 134 fastest laps is second to Truex’s tally in the recent history but over the last 10 races here Harvick actually betters Truex in top-fives, -10s, -15s, -20s, laps led, fastest laps, top-15 rate, and average rating with ties in wins and laps completed. Now you see why he’s the most-expensive play this week? Oh, yeah and he’s the highest-scoring DFS play this year so far.

Clint Bowyer: Ah, the most entertaining driver in the field and the guy racing at his home track this week. Bowyer is from Emporia, Kansas, which is only about two hours (or just under) from where Kansas Speedway sits. For it being his home track though he has had some iffy showings. One top-10, one top-15, and three top-20s is about all he has to show for his efforts in the last four races and the last 10 aren’t that great either with a top-five, two top-10s, and six top-20s.  That being said he does have a healthy +7.5 position differential in the last four at Kansas and has been on a nice roll this season with four top-10 finishes in the last five races this year. He will have to buck history here to show well.

Aric Almirola: Almirola is another guy, like Bowyer, that doesn’t have a sparkling history here but has been putting together a solid season. The driver of the 10-car has a top-10, top-15, and two top-20s in the last four races with that top-10 occurring the last time they raced at the track. The other reason Almirola makes this section this week is because of what happened in the Spring race a year ago when he had to be cut from his car and taken to a local hospital with a broken back. Aside from the 2017 Spring race, he has four top-10s in 11 career races here, and an average finish of 19.1.

Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is returning to his roots, or at least the team he started with in Roush Fenway. The 46-year-old driver hasn’t been in a car since Homestead-Miami last year and is working with a new manufacturer and new team for the first time in five years; he’s got his work cutout for him. That being said Kenseth has posted a top-five, two top-10s, and three top-15s in the last four races at Kansas while leading 119 laps (fourth) and 68 fastest laps (fourth). Now he has tended to go backwards during races with an average start of P5 and a finish of 15.5 but he does have two career wins here and has been steady over the last five years here. With him just getting back into a car he will remain a strictly GPP play, but a decent mid-tier one at that.