When to target speed? This is one of the biggest questions in fantasy baseball each and every year. No one wants to tank the steals category completely, as this can almost assure you of not capturing first place in roto leagues. The problem with a lot of the speed guys, as you may already know, is that they offer very little in just about every other category outside of stolen bases. Add to that the fact that speed is becoming harder to find and it adds even more difficulty. Last season was the first year since 2012 that no player stole over 50 bases (Trout had 49 in 2012) and only the second such year since 2002. So how does one go about picking up stolen bases for fantasy? There are a few ways to go about targeting speed, and they can all work.

A Balanced Approach

This is the most ideal way to go about getting your stolen base category locked up without hurting yourself in the other categories. This does not mean you have to use an early round pick on Trea Turner or Whit Merrifield , but if you can fill your first couple picks with guys who do it all (including steal bases) you will really be putting your team in the right direction. In a perfect world you get a top three pick and secure Mike Trout , Mookie Betts , or José Ramírez . Of course, that probably won’t be the case for most people. Christian Yelich , Ronald Acuna , Francisco Lindor , Alex Bregman , José Altuve , Trevor Story , and Andrew Benintendi are all early picks that will help you across the board of categories while providing you with some solid stolen base numbers. If you are able to land these type of players, you can then use later round picks on players that will give you 10-to-20 steals (or more) without killing you in other categories (like a Billy Hamilton will). Yasiel Puig , Jonathan Villar , Andrew McCutchen , Jurickson Profar , Harrison Bader , and Brandon Nimmo are a few guys worth looking at, if your draft unfolds this way. This style of drafting gives you a very balanced team. You may not have any of the 40+ stolen base guys, but the combined production from your team as a whole will provide enough stolen bases to keep you competitive in the category.

Target Speed Early

This route almost certainty means taking Trea Turner with your first round pick or Whit Merrifield with a third round pick. Turner (43 steals) and Merrifield (45 steals) were the top-2 finishers in steals last season and were two of only three players to finish with more than 35 (Mallex Smith the other, he finished with 40). The good thing about these two guys is that they are also more than solid in the other categories as well and are a fine way to start your draft. Last season, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton were some of the earlier round targets for speed and they consistently don’t help you anywhere else. If you can combine Turner with a power bat (like Judge, Story, or Stanton) and then follow it up with a pitcher you will be off to a very strong start in your draft. As for Merrifield, the thought process would be similar, grab a power bat (like Martinez or Arenado), your ace, and then Merrifield. While Turner and Merrifield may not be the type of guys that can bash out 25+ home runs, they provide enough production across the board to make this approach a good one. You can use your later rounds to fill out your steals category in a similar way to the “Balanced Approach” but with a higher ceiling of steals.

Target Speed Late

This strategy comes into play when your first couple picks are low steal total guys. You may have taken Nolan Arenado in the first round (averages two steals per year) and came back in the second round and selected another power bat like Aaron Judge . In the third round you take the ace of your pitching staff. This is a great start to your draft in every category except stolen bases. When taking this route, you will need to be able to find speed later in the draft to be competitive in the category. This style of draft leads to guys like Mallex Smith , Dee Gordon , and Billy Hamilton coming into play. None of those three players managed to reach the five home run mark and for the most part they provided nothing outside of steals (Smith hit .296 – the lone positive from the bunch). If playing in a roto league and your draft unfolds like this, you may have to take one of these guys and try to make it work, as you do not want to punt a category. However, if playing in a head-to-head league, you may be better off just punting the steals category and turning your focus to really locking down the other categories.

Conclusion

Three ways to target speed have been laid out, but which is the best? That depends on preference and also the flow of how your draft goes. Personally I prefer the balanced approach or the target speed early approach. Owning players who are one category contributors can be frustrating and detrimental to your team, making the targeting speed late approach one I would try to avoid. In today’s MLB the homerun ball is easier to come by than stolen bases are, making targeting speed crucial to a successful team. It is unlikely to find many good stolen base category contributors on the waivers, making targeting them in the draft essential. All three approaches can work and you probably already know which approach you use most commonly.

Mock Drafts

Participating in mock drafts can really give you a great feel for which of these approaches you like best. They give you the freedom to try all three multiple times without ever being locked into a roster you are uncomfortable with. After a few mock drafts of each approach you should know which one is your favorite. This will also help you get a good understanding of how to avoid roster killing yourself. By that I mean going to heavy one way or the other; speed is essential to fantasy success and you can’t come up short on stolen bases but you also don’t want to overdo it with a plethora of one category contributors. Find that sweet spot of just the right amount of projected stolen base totals. Hop into some of the Mock Draft Army drafts and go up against myself and many others here at Fantasy Alarm.

2018 Stolen Base Leaders

Using the above chart of the 2018 stolen base leaders, it will be easier to see how some of the top stolen base guys can help you (or hurt you) in other categories. This same thought process can be used when targeting any category; doing research into how each player can help or hurt you will always be beneficial to your roster.

A few quick key notes from 2018; nine players finished with 30+ homeruns, 10+ steals, and a .270+ batting average. They are the following:

  1. Mike Trout 39-24-.312
  2. José Ramírez 39-34-.270
  3. Francisco Lindor 38-25-.277
  4. Trevor Story 37-27-.291
  5. Manny Machado 37-14-.297
  6. Christian Yelich 36-22-.326
  7. Javier Báez 34-21-.290
  8. Mookie Betts 32-30-.346
  9. Alex Bregman 31-10-.286

Seven players finished with 10+ homeruns, 30+ steals, and a .270+ batting average:

  1. Whit Merrifield 12-45-.304
  2. Trea Turner 19-43-.271
  3. José Ramírez 39-34-.270
  4. Starling Marte 20-33-.277
  5. Adalberto Mondesí 14-32-.276
  6. Mookie Betts 32-30-.346
  7. Lorenzo Cain 10-30-.308

Speed is just one of the many crucial parts to building a championship roster. Be sure to check out all that the Draft Guide has to offer and construct a winning team. Good luck in your upcoming drafts and take home the crown this season!