If you look at the leaderboard and look at the winner of the SuperDraft $125K Red Zone GPP, their biggest tournament, the trend is building around one 1X player -- which has been Christian McCaffrey -- and taking shot on value elsewhere. We had a strong 2X value in Auden Tate who was 44-percent owned but all of the top lineups had both Aaron Jones at 1.4X and Will Fuller at 1.65X. Let’s look to hit on this weeks’ Fuller and Jones, shall we?
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson , BAL (1.05X)
We should strongly consider Lamar Jackson a massive threat in all fantasy sites, but even on SuperDraft despite being only a 1.05 value. His match-up with the Bengals doesn’t really get much better. We saw Kyler Murray light them up last week and I’m not talking only through the air, but with his legs as well. He threw for 253 yards which is a respectable outing, but he ran for 90 yards on only ten totes and also got into the end zone. Jackson, in addition to throwing 11 touchdowns this season has averaged 6.2 YPC and has at LEAST 66 rushing yards in three of his last four games. Jackson has a chance to put together a really special performance with his arm and his legs.
Baker Mayfield , CLE (1.4X)
Is there any player in the NFL under the microscope more than Baker Mayfield right about now? He went 8-for-22 for 100 yards and two interceptions in a 31-3 Monday Night Football shellacking against the 49ers this past week. To say Mayfield needs a bounceback game is an understatement. We’ve seen it over and over again that when a player is being discussed a lot on a public level a la Kirk Cousins before last week’s game, the team does everything in their power to show everyone else that they can actually play. This situation feels exactly like that. Mayfield was GREAT last season and this match-up is actually really ideal for him and the Browns passing attack as the Seattle defense has allowed the seventh most passing yards this year allowing 284 per game. Nobody is going to play him and it’s a fantastic ownership play at this value.
Gardner Minshew, JAX (1.45X)
For everyone’s top value, they’re likely going to be looking for some “Minshew Magic” in Week 6 contests. Yes, we’ve seen Marshon Lattimore lock up some pretty good receivers this year, but the Saints have allowed the ninth most passing yards this season up to this point. He is coming off a week in which he threw for a career-high 374 yards and racked up his fourth two touchdown game in five weeks. He’s also a threat on the ground as he ran for 40-plus yards for the second time this season.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara , NO (1.1X)
Although the Jaguars have been known for their defense the past couple of seasons, they are getting gashed by opposing running backs in 2019. The 610 yards in five games (122 YPG) the Jaguars are allowing on the ground is one thing, but they’ve allowed 23 receptions to running backs as well. Check and check for Kamara who’s one of the biggest dual-threat skill position players in the NFL. This is the breakout game we’ve been anxiously awaiting for out of AK41.
Chris Carson , SEA (1.4X)
The last two weeks we’ve seen a dominant version of Chris Carson . A version that’s actually holding onto the ball and one that’s rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games. The Browns rank 31st against the run this year and after seeing what Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman did in Week 5, there’s no reason that Carson shouldn’t follow suit. This game has a solid 47 implied point total and could be a shootout. There’s no reason we don’t see 20-plus touches out of Carson.
Le’Veon Bell, NYJ (1.45X)
Lets SMASH this value, y’all. We just saw Aaron Jones touch the rock 26 times for 175 yards and FOUR touchdowns against the Cowboys just last week. The Jets are getting Sam Darnold back for this one, which if you remember back in Week 1, Bell had his most effective fantasy output with Darnold at the helm. From what we saw out Darnold in Week 1, this Jets offense will feature a lot of short passes considering Darnold’s 5.7 aDOT (average depth of target) and his 26 targets to Bell and Jamison Crowder (slot receiver) alone. We should see vintage Bell here, especially in the passing game just based on game theory against the Cowboys.
Carlos Hyde , HOU (1.65X)
In three of the last four games, we’ve seen Hyde notch at least 16 touches and Duke Johnson has only reached double figures once during that span, so we know who is first in terms of pecking order in Houston. This game not only features the highest over/under on the slate at 55, but the Chiefs defense has allowed the most rushing yards in the league allowing 134 YPG. Hyde has scored twice over the last three weeks and has five carries within the ten yard line and is clearly the priority for touches inside the red zone. We should briefly mention the Chiefs traded him before the season began to Houston, so Hyde could be a little extra motivated in this one.
Tevin Coleman , SF (1.75X)
It was an extremely successful return to the lineup for Coleman against the Browns and now gets a pretty good match-up against the Rams who are allowing over 100 yards rushing per game. Not only did Coleman break out last year on the ground notching 4.8 YPC, but he caught 32 passes as well, which is something he didn’t do at all in Week 5 and still put up a big fantasy output. He’s in a timeshare, and we have to understand the risk when we use him or Matt Breida for that matter, but it’s a risk worth taking in this spot.
Wide Receivers
Tyler Boyd , CIN (1.3X)
Volume, volume and more volume. Auden Tate may be everyone’s favorite value these days, but Boyd continues to see a massive target share in the Cincy passing game. Boyd’s 50 targets rank fourth in the NFL as he’s gone over double-figures in four out of the five games, including 14 last week. That’s going to be life without both A.J. Green and John Ross , so expect much of the same here. The Ravens have allowed the MOST receiving yards in the NFL to wide receivers and when thinking game flow here, Cincy will be trailing for the entirety of the contest which means they’re likely going to air it out for most, if not all of this one.
Odell Beckham , CLE (1.3X)
It is absolutely concerning that Beckham has caught only four passes on 13 targets for 47 yards in the last two weeks, but we ALL are aware of the generational talent he possesses. We saw his dominant performance in Week 2 against the Jets -- which we saw week in and week out with the Giants -- and we’re absolutely ready for it to happen again at the drop of a dime. Because of his recent struggles, he’s not going to be owned nearly as much as he should be and he’s actually a great value on SuperDraft. We already highlighted it when talking about Baker Mayfield , but the Seahawks have given up the seventh most passing yards in the league. Something worth mentioning I’d say.
Terry McLaurin , WAS (1.4X)
The second best match-up on the board for Week 6 according to Pro Football Focus is Terry McLaurin . He’s been able to practice all week and we saw the type of rapport he and Case Keenum built the first three weeks, as he caught at least five passes for 62 yards and a score. This match-up is with a dreadful Dolphins secondary. We don’t need to go into much further detail. He’s an elite value at 1.4X.
Dede Westbrook , JAX (1.6X)
Baby Shark doo doo doo do doo do has been getting ALL the attention this year and honestly, rightfully so seeing what he’s doing, but he’s going to see a LOT of Marshon Lattimore in this one, opening up more targets elsewhere. Westbrook is clearly the teams second option in the passing game as he’s received five plus targets in every game this year including a season-high 11 in Week 5. His match-up against P.J. Williams is a doozy and he has a massive advantage according to PFF. We love Gardner Minshew and pairing him with Westbrook could be extremely profitable here.
Jamison Crowder /Robby Anderson, NYJ (2X)
It’s weird to say this out loud -- and to anyone else other than myself -- but the Jets are extremely intriguing, especially on SuperDraft with these insanely cheap values. Anderson has been non-existent this year in the Jets offense, but he’s been without Sam Darnold . He scored 13 touchdowns from 2017-’18 and averaged 15 yards per reception over that span as well, so he’s a threat with a respectable quarterback. We saw the connection between Darnold and Crowder in Week 1 when Darnold looked Crowder’s way a week high 17 times. Crowder is safer of the two, meanwhile Anderson is a home run option.
Tight Ends
Austin Hooper , ATL (1.15X)
We obviously love the fact that this game is against the Cardinals. They’re absolutely atrocious against the tight end position, as they’ve allowed 461 yards and six touchdowns in five games with essentially ZERO production from Tyler Eifert in Week 5, even though that falls on Andy Dalton for missing him wide open in the end zone. His involvement in the Falcons offense is elite as he’s notched six-plus receptions in four-of-five games and has notched 42 targets in five games as well. He’s a slightly better value than Travis Kelce on SuperDraft.
George Kittle , SF (1.35X)
Imagine getting Kittle at this sort of value? If you weren’t aware how much Kittle dominates the 49ers target share, he has 29 and Deebo Samuel who’s in second has 17. He also has 11 more receptions then Samuel on the year. Kittle has eight or more targets in three of four games and he has the second biggest advantage at the tight end position in terms of match-up according to PFF. Kittle, at this price, is the best tight end on the board.
Jared Cook , NO (1.8X)
Cook is coming off his best week with the Saints but actually has had a bunch of opportunity lately, notching six-plus targets in three of his last four games. His match-up is one of the best on the board as Jarrod Wilson is one of the worst coverage safeties in football according to Pro Football Focus. Cook could be a pretty popular value option here.
James Week 6 Lineup
Pivot
Lamar Jackson → Baker Mayfield
Jamison Crowder → Robby Anderson
Tyler Boyd → Odell Beckham Jr.