Why does anyone care about Tavon Austin?
Is it because he was given a 4-year contract extension for $42 million ($30 million guaranteed)?
Is it because his HC Jeff Fisher said that he thought Austin might be able to catch 100 passes this season?
Hopefully the answer to those three questions are something akin to – I could give a flip about Austin. If you are a believer, and you think Austin is a good target for 2016, then keep reading. You will change your mind by the end of this piece.
HE OFFERS NO TD CONSISTENCY
Austin scored five times last season as a pass catcher.
He has scored nine times in 44 career NFL games as a receiver.
Austin scored four times last season as a runner.
He has scored seven times in 44 career NFL games as a runner.
Austin has scored 16 times as a runner/receiver in 44 NFL games.
Devonta Freeman and Doug Baldwin scored 14 times in 16 games last season by the way.
Austin scored twice in Week 4 last season.
He scored twice in Week 8.
He scored twice in Week 15.
Austin scored six of his nine touchdowns in three games.
That means he scored three times in his other 13 games.
In 2014 Austin scored two touchdowns all season.
In 2013 Austin scored five times. He scored two touchdowns twice in that season.
In 44 NFL games Austin has scored 16 times as a wideout/runner.
On five occasions he’s scored two touchdowns.
That means in his other 39 NFL games he’s scored six times.
HE OFFERS NO RECEPTION CONCISISTENCY
Austin has averaged 41 receptions a season in three years.
In his three seasons he’s recorded 41 receptions once (52 last season).
Last season Austin caught six passes twice.
Last season Austin caught five passes twice.
Last season Austin caught four passes three times.
That means nine times last season Austin caught three or fewer passes.
Austin averaged 3.25 receptions a game last season.
Rueben Randle, who can’t find a job, averaged 3.56 receptions a game last season.
HE OFFERS NO RUSHING CONSISTENCY
Austin carried the ball six times twice last season.
Austin didn’t carry the ball five times in a game.
Austin carried the ball three times or less in eight games, or half the season.
Austin averaged 3.25 carries a game last season.
HE OFFERS LITTLE YARDAGE PRODUCTION
Austin had two games with 95 yards receiving last season.
Austin had two games – those two 95 yard efforts – with 45 receiving yards last season.
He caught passes totaling 45 yards just twice all season long.
That’s embarrassing. Don’t know how anyone can defend that.
Forty-seven wideouts caught at least 50 passes last season. Austin was one of two wideouts who failed to reach double-digits in yards per catch in 2015. Austin averaged 9.1 yards a reception while Golden Tate was at 9.0. Tate stands 5’10” by the way.
As a runner last season Austin had two games with 60 rushing yards.
Those were the only two times all season that he ran for more than 45 yards on the ground.
HE’S TINY
Tavon Austin is 5’8” and weighs it at 176 lbs. He’s a small fella in the real world. He’s tiny for an NFL player.
Have you happened to have read Size Does Matter yet? If not, it’s a must read. Some quick hits from the piece.
In 2015 eight of the top 25 fantasy wide receivers were under six feet tall. This is just the third time in the past 20 years that more than five of the top 25 were under six foot.
Realize that two of those men are Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. Those two men might go down as unique in NFL history. Jeff Mans also points out in the piece that Doug Baldwin’s season last year was a fluke (agreed). It would seem likely that Emmanuel Sanders has very little chance to repeat this season either given the quarterback play in Denver (agreed). John Brown has dealt with a concussion for a long while now, is the third receiver on his own team and he also stands three inches taller than Austin.
Another point.
The average height of WR’s in the top 25 last season was 6’2 and 211 lbs. In 2014 the average height was again 6’2” and 214 lbs.
Point three.
Just six of the top 40 (15 percent) touchdown receptions leaders last year were under 6’1”.
Recent history is strongly in support of the fact that size does matter at the wideout spot, and Austin doesn’t have it.
HE WILL HAVE POOR QUARTERBACK PLAY
The Rams scored 17.5 points a game last year, the fourth worst total in the league.
The Rams produced 297.6 yards a game last year, the worst in the league.
The Rams passed for 175.3 yards a game, the worst mark in football (five teams averaged more than 100+ yards above that total).
The offense doesn’t appear to be appreciably better heading into the 2016 season either.
Case Keenum and Jared Goff seem certain to both make starts this campaign. Keenum should be a lifelong backup, not a starter in the NFL. He’s completed 56.7 percent of his passes with 15 scores and nine interceptions. He simply owns no single unique talent. None. Goff, who was the first overall pick in the draft by the Rams, has looked brutal this preseason. He fumbled the ball three times, losing two, and threw two picks amongst his myriad of mistakes. He also completed just 22 of 49 passes (44.9 percent). Worse yet, he looked terrible as well taking sacks while looking indecisive. Ha also appeared to be incapable of handling the speed of the NFL game.
MOST LEAGUES DO NOT COUNT RETURN PRODUCTION
The outlook for Austin is much different if you’re in a return league. Personally, I don’t do a single one of those types of league and they are certainly in the minority.
Last year Austin returned three kickoffs for 16 yards.
Last year Austin returned 34 punts for 268 yards and a touchdown.
Again, that matters as much as having a killer pair of superhero underoos in the overwhelming majority of leagues, i.e., it doesn’t matter at all.
AUSTIN’S RANKING
In the 2016 Fantasy Alarm Rankings Tavon Austin is ranked 55th at wide receiver in a PPR setup (as of this writing). If we assume a 12-team league that makes him a WR5. That rankings is well below what his NFFC ADP is (45th at wide out).
CONCLUSION
I think that the data is extremely clear with Austin.
He will have some big games.
Most of his games will be disappointing.
Unless you play him every single week you will likely get burned by Austin. Note though, that even if you use him every week you’re likely to get burned if you are in that group of folks, and I know you’re out there, that thinks Austin has any chance at 100 receptions or that Austin is likely to improve upon last season. Even if he does improve slightly, unless he spreads out the production, the peaks and valleys that he brings will frustrate the hell out of his owners. After all, football is a head-to-head game and not a roto affair.
Let someone else worry about Austin. There’s no need to give yourself an ulcer.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).