2023 Player Outlook
2023 Recap: Pagan has proven closing experience, as he has 32 saves across his seven big league seasons. Last year, his 0.65 HR/9 mark was the lowest of his career, aided by a minuscule 5.3 percent HR/FB ratio. However, he still surrendered fly balls more than half of the time, and while his ground ball rate was above his career mark, it was a far cry from his career high in 2022. He allowed a lot of hard contact, and unfortunately, hard contact and fly balls in Great American Ball Park doesn't exactly seem like a recipe for success.
2024 Outlook: He outperformed the majority of his expected and peripheral statistics, indicating some regression could be in store in 2024. Actually, maybe it's not regression, but more so returning to the form we've seen in the three years prior. Pagan should immediately step in as the primary setup man in the Reds' pen and would be the next man up should something happen to Alexis Diaz. From a fantasy perspective, he's not someone you need to be looking at in your league's draft.