2022 Player Outlook
His 5.07 ERA was rather unlucky, to say the least. Despite posting a career-best ground ball rate at 51.3 percent and a career low 4.9 percent barrel rate, a .324 BABIP kept his ERA far from his 4.49 FIP and 4.33 xFIP. Mills pitches to contact, so he'll likely continue to underwhelm in the strikeout department again in 2022. If you miss out on Kyle Hendricks in your draft but really want someone who won't strikeout many batters but eat up innings, stay in Chicago and take Mills. He doesn't miss bats but doesn't get pummeled by hard contact. After committing to his sinker as his primary pitch last year, he posted the best ground ball rate of his career, but an unfortunate .324 BABIP didn't do him any favors. Some regression to the mean there should help Mills, and his ERA in 2022 should be closer to 4.50 than last year's 5.07 mark. He's a low upside arm, especially with the weak strikeout numbers.