The Octagon is set for a massive Middleweight clash at UFC 328 as the outspoken Sean Strickland takes on the dominant Khamzat Chimaev. With over $5.16 million in total trading volume already recorded on the outcome, prediction markets show high confidence in one specific direction.

Whether you are backing the relentless pressure of Strickland or the "Borz" wrestling of Chimaev, now is the time to lock in your positions for the May 9, 2026 event.

Check out our UFC 328 Best Bets and UFC 328 DFS Playbook for tonight’s event!

 

 

 

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FeaturePromotional Details
OfferDeposit $20 and Get $20!
Promo CodeALARM
EventUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev
DateMay 9, 2026
Join HereBet on UFC 328 at Polymarket


 

UFC 328 Moneyline: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Polymarket Odds

The betting volume for this Middleweight Main Card bout has captured significant interest, with the moneyline alone seeing $5M in volume. As of May 9, 2026, the market consensus shows a clear favorite.

Fighter

Odds (Share Price)

Implied Probability

Khamzat Chimaev

82¢

82%

Sean Strickland

19¢

19%

Chimaev enters as the massive favorite, with the market pricing his victory at 82¢. Despite being a significant underdog at 19¢, Strickland remains a popular "value" play among bettors hoping for a signature upset.

 

 

 

Method of Victory Predictions: Will Chimaev Win by Submission or KO/TKO?

Beyond the winner, Polymarket offers deep liquidity on how the fight will end.

  • Fight won by Submission: This is the most likely outcome according to the market, priced at 51¢.
  • Fight won by KO/TKO: The market sits at 27¢ for a knockout or technical knockout finish.
  • Chimaev to win by KO/TKO: Specifically, a Chimaev knockout is priced at 20¢.
  • Strickland to win by KO/TKO: A Strickland knockout is viewed as a longshot at 12¢.

 

UFC 328 Prop Bets: Totals and "Go the Distance" Market Analysis

Bettors are also heavily trading on the duration of the fight, with $105K in volume on whether the match reaches the judges.

  • Will the Fight Go the Distance?: The market is skeptical, with "No" favored at 69¢ compared to "Yes" at 32¢.
  • Over/Under 3.5 Rounds: Bettors lean toward an earlier finish, with Under 3.5 Rounds at 54¢ and Over 3.5 Rounds at 47¢.

 

 

 

Expert Market Sentiment

The Verdict: Market sentiment heavily favors Khamzat Chimaev, particularly via a finish. With "Fight won by submission" at 51¢, many expect Chimaev’s wrestling to be the deciding factor. However, at 19¢, Sean Strickland offers a significant payout for those betting on his defensive capabilities to force a late-round upset.

 

Market Rules to Remember

  • Resolution: The market resolves to the fighter officially declared the winner by the UFC.
  • Draw/No Contest: If the fight is a draw, No Contest, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, the market resolves 50-50.

 

 

 

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Disclaimer: Betting involves risk. Odds are subject to change based on market activity. Please gamble responsibly.