UFC 328 DFS Picks & Lineups: Chimaev vs. Strickland Cheat Sheet, 5/9
UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland takes place this Saturday from Newark, New Jersey. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 9:00PM on Paramount+. Two title fights headline this card as the Middleweight and Flyweight titles are on the line. Khamzat Chimaev looks to make his first title defense against Sean Strickland for the 185lb belt, while Joshua Van attempts to make his first title defense against Tatsuro Taira. Chimaev and Strickland have had bad blood and have shown animosity towards each other all week, so expect both men to be looking to finish the fight quickly. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | 9500/6700 | - | Stackability: Low | -549/ 400 | -225./900.0 |
Chimaev is a massive favorite in his first title defense, but it is well deserved. He has shown an ability to wrestle any opponent, especially early in the fight. He is coming off a DraftKings score record in his last fight due to landing 500+ total strikes and controlling the entirety of the matchup. Sean Strickland is a tough test for anyone due to his measured striking, but he'll need to do what others have not been able to do and keep the fight standing to have any chance to win. I expect Chimaev to come in close to 65% owned (more in small field contests), and that might not be enough. I'm taking Chimaev to get the decision victory and rack up a ton of DK points along the way, similar to his last fight with Dricus. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ateba Gautier | 9800 | Ozzy Diaz | Somewhat-Safe | -140 | -800. |
Ateba has massive power, and Diaz is very hittable, so this is a great combo. His price is insanely high, and his ownership may be lower than normal due to two five-round fights being on the card this week. He has the best chance of getting the 25pt quick win bonus of anyone on the slate, so he is well worth the pay up in price, but behind Chimaev for me. | |||||
Tatsuro Taira | 8700 | Joshua Van | Somewhat-Safe | -175 | 120.0 |
Taira is going to best attribute his wrestling, early and often, and I see him outmatching Van anytime they are on the ground. Van is also a slow starter, so if he isn't careful, Taira could take the back and end this fight quickly. I don't like this matchup at all for Van as he normally needs to wear his opponent down, and Taira has shown no cardio issues during his run. | |||||
Baisangur Susurkaev | 9600 | Djorden Santos | Somewhat-Safe | -1,000 | -163. |
Susurkaev is another big finisher in the 185lb division, but unlike Ateba, who has a chinny opponent, Santos has shown he can go 15 minutes and has done so in all of his UFC fights. I still think Susurkaev gets the early finish and scores well, but he is a clear fourth for me behind Chimaev, Taira, and Gautier when it comes to how likely they are to hit their ceiling. | |||||
Pat Sabatini | 9000 | William Gomis | Moderate | -225 | 175.0 |
Sabatini has elite wrestling, and once he gets the fight on the ground, he doesn't let his opponent up. This is a good matchup for him, as Gomis is a low-volume striker, so he shouldn't be in as much danger as he normally has to deal with. Even in a decision win, he could score close to 100pts so he is a safe play with a little bit of salary relief. He makes for a good play in lineups that are using Joshua Van over Taira. | |||||
Marco Tulio | 8900 | Roman Kopylov | Moderate | -200 | 110.0 |
Tulio throws a lot of volume and mixes in wrestling, so he should be able to score well here, even in a decision. Kopylov has been getting doubled up on the feet as of late, and this matchup is another time I could see that happening. Tulio will land around 30 significant strikes per round and mix in his wrestling to get the decision win or late finish. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Yaroslav Amosov | 8500 | Joel Alvarez | Moderate | -175 | 240.0 |
The mid-range is a couple of really similar fights. The favorites are all wrestlers who can rack up a ton of points even in decision wins. Amosov is the most likely to get the finish from what I have seen on tape. Alvarez was a weight bully at 155lbs, and while up at 170 lbs, he is still massive for the weight class; he just lacks the raw strength that Amosov possesses. I see this being a close fight where Amosov is just doing more and being the one who ends up on top of any scrambles that occur. | |||||
Grant Dawson | 8300 | Mateusz Rebecki | Moderate | -175 | 350.0 |
Dawson has the widest range of outcomes on the card. In his losses, he averages less than 10dk pts as he normally gets KO'd early. He knows his chin is an issue, so he is going to try to wrestle almost immediately, and because of this, in his wins, he averages 100+ pts. This fight is going to be close to a must-play at its price since both fighters possess massive upside in their most likely path to victory. | |||||
Joaquin Buckley | 7800 | Sean Brady | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 200.0 |
He'll need to defend takedowns, but if it stays standing, he should be able to find the KO. Brady is someone who, when the fight is going his way, dominates, but when he fights adversity, he tends to look for a way out. I don't think Buckley gets it done early, but I'm looking for a second or third round KO. | |||||
Alexander Volkov | 8600 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | 275.0 |
Volkov has much more experience than Waldo and can mix in wrestling as needed, as he showed against Cyril Gane. On the feet, he might be a little slower than Waldo, but on the ground, Volkov is way ahead. | |||||
Mateusz Rebecki | 7900 | Grant Dawson | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 175.0 |
Rebecki is going to need to defend takedowns right from the start, but if this fight has 2-3 minutes of striking, I think Rebecki can find Dawson's chin. On the feet, in this fight, Rebecki is going to double up Dawson in strikes and overwhelm him, but it all depends on whether Rebecki can keep this standing. | |||||
Sean Brady | 8400 | Joaquin Buckley | Somewhat-Risky | -163 | 200.0 |
Brady is a great wrestler, but he has struggled with cardio if he has to strike for prolonged periods of time. I see Buckley being strong enough to keep it standing, so I'll be underweight on Brady, but he is going to be the one winning the minutes with his control time, while Buckley is going to be looking to have the big moments. | |||||
Waldo Cortes Acosta | 7600 | Alexander Volkov | Risky | 140 | #N/A |
Waldo has faster striking, but Volkov has shown he is very durable, so I don't think Waldo has the upside of some of the other underdogs priced around him. He'll need to get a KO to get on the optimal lineup because he won't wrestle, which I don't see coming, even if he does win a decision. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Joshua Van | 7500 | Tatsuro Taira | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 240.0 |
Van is going to look to use his insane volume of strikes against Taira, but he needs to keep it standing. If this stayed striking, he could land 150-200+ significant strikes, but he'll have to really work to make sure he doesn't get stuck on the ground. I'm picking Taira to win, but Van has a clear path to victory. | |||||
Clayton Carpenter | 7400 | Jose Ochoa | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 450.0 |
This is going to be a close fight, and it's another wrestler vs striker. Ochoa lands with power, but he has shown that he can be outworked, and Carpenter is someone who is well-rounded enough to take advantage of whatever deficiency Ochoa presents. | |||||
Roman Kopylov | 7300 | Marco Tulio | Risky | 163 | 400.0 |
Kopylov is taking a massive step back in competition after some tough tests against Paulo Costa and Robocop Rodrigues. His striking is very good, and his wrestling has improved, but Tulio is going to be leading the dance. He'll need to land with more power or get some takedowns to win this fight, but at his price, he has really good odds to win. | |||||
Jeremy Stephens | 7000 | King Green | Risky | 250 | 300.0 |
Stephens' is low volume, but he still has a ton of power. If he doesn't get the KO, he is going to lose this fight. Green should wrestle here, but he has some of the worst fight IQ in the sport, so I'm not banking on Green to fight a smart game plan. If this is going to be a striking battle, Stephens still has the power to KO anyone. He has been fighting in a heavier division for Bare Knuckle Fighting, so I’m not surprised he missed weight for this fight, but I'm not taking much away from it. | |||||
William Gomis | 7200 | Pat Sabatini | Risky | 175 | 500.0 |
He's low volume, and Sabatini is going to look to wrestle early, so he'll need to make the most of it. I see this fight going to decision, and with the amount of volume that Gomis lands, I probably won't want any part of him this week, even if he is only +175. | |||||
Jim Miller | 6900 | Jared Gordon | Risky | 250 | 450.0 |
I can't believe I am still writing up Jim Miller in 2026, but here we are. He's a legend of the sport, but he is slowing down dramatically. His striking isn't going to be able to touch Gordon, but if he can get the fight to the ground, he might be able to have some success and find a submission. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Della
Picks and Stats
Khamzat Chimaev | vs | Sean Strickland |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 15-0-0 | Record | Record: 30-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 12 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-549 | Vegas Odds | 400 |
Joshua Van | vs | Tatsuro Taira |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 18-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 8 |
140 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Alexander Volkov | vs | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 39-11-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
24 | Knockouts | 9 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 140 |
Sean Brady | vs | Joaquin Buckley |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 18-2-0 | Record | Record: 21-7-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 15 |
6 | Subs | 0 |
-163 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
King Green | vs | Jeremy Stephens |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 34-17-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 29-22-0 (1 NC) |
12 | Knockouts | 18 |
9 | Subs | 3 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
0 | ||
Ateba Gautier | vs | Ozzy Diaz |
$9,800 | DFS Salary | $6,400 |
Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-1,400 | Vegas Odds | 800 |
Joel Alvarez | vs | Yaroslav Amosov |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 23-3-0 | Record | Record: 29-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
17 | Subs | 12 |
140 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Grant Dawson | vs | Mateusz Rebecki |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 23-3-1 | Record | Record: 20-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
13 | Subs | 7 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 140 |
Jim Miller | vs | Jared Gordon |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 38-19-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-8-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
21 | Subs | 2 |
250 | Vegas Odds | -333 |
Roman Kopylov | vs | Marco Tulio |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 10 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
163 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Pat Sabatini | vs | William Gomis |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 21-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 7 |
13 | Subs | 1 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Baisangur Susurkaev | vs | Djorden Santos |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-800 | Vegas Odds | 500 |
Clayton Carpenter | vs | Jose Ochoa |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 8-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-2-0 (1 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -188 |