The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby is tonight and it's time to make your HR Derby bets before the sluggers take center stage. Will New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso become a three-time Home Run Derby winner? Can Julio Rodriguez rise to the top in front of the Seattle Mariners home crowd? Or will Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. take the Derby crown? Let's dive into the Home Run Derby best bets, predictions, and picks for Monday night's slugfest. Plus, we'll break down the HR Derby format and MLB betting odds for tonight. We'll also tell you about an awesome Caesars Sportsbook promo for new users ahead of the MLB Home Run Derby. To join, use this link to create your new Caesars Sportsbook account now.
Home Run Derby Prediction: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +400
The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby features plenty of intriguing storylines for its potential winners. One outcome some baseball fans will be rooting for is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. joining his Vlad Sr. as the only father-son duo to both win the Derby. Vladdy Jr. came close in 2019 when he launched a record 91 home runs but fell just short of Pete Alonso in the finals. You can bet on Guerrero Jr. at +400 odds on Caesars Sportsbook to be this year's Derby champ.
Although he isn't having the best power season so far with just 13 homers at the All-Star break, the Toronto Blue Jays' star still has plenty of HR upside to win this event. Don't forget that Guerrero hit 48 home runs just two seasons ago and is a year removed from smashing 32 homers.
Despite the HR numbers not being there in 2023, Vlad Jr. is among the MLB league leaders in a number of promising advanced stats that could lead to Derby success. Among all Home Run Derby participants, Guerrero leads the field in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and max exit velo. He's still hitting the ball extremely hard and should be trending up in the second half of this season.
2023 MLB Home Run Derby Format, Matchups And Bracket
The Home Run Derby contest uses a bracket format (which can be seen in the image below) where each player attempts to beat who they’re matched up with and advance to the next round.
In the first round; hitters have three minutes to hit as many home runs as they can. The clock starts when the first pitch is thrown, and a home run hit after the clock runs out will count as long as the pitch was released before the timer hits zero. Hitters automatically get 30 seconds of bonus time added to their three minutes, and they can add 30 more seconds if at least two of their home runs travel 440 feet or more. Hitters can take one 45-second timeout, but it cannot be used during bonus time. The round ends before the second hitter's timer runs out if he has already beaten his opponent's total.
The second round/semi-finals round uses the same format as the first round. The winner of this round will advance to the final round.
Things change a bit in the finals; they will get just two minutes each to hit as many home runs as possible. But the bonus time rules remain the same. Both hitters will receive an automatic 30 seconds of bonus time, and two home runs of at least 440 feet will earn another 30 seconds of bonus time.
Tiebreaker rules: If two hitters are tied after a round, they will each get 60 seconds to hit as many home runs as they can. If the round remains tied after the 60-second tiebreakers, then hitters will participate in a swing-off consisting of just three swings each and continue until one has pulled ahead of the other.
Home Run Derby Odds And Latest Betting Lines At Caesars Sportsbook
The home run derby is TONIGHT and you can bet on any of the eight contestants taking center stage in it at varying odds. Pete Alonso, a two-time winner of the contest, comes in as the favorite. Here are the betting odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
- Pete Alonso +310
- Julio Rodriguez +400
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. +400
- Luis Robert Jr. +480
- Adolis Garcia +700
- Mookie Betts +1100
- Randy Arozarena +1300
- Adley Rutschman +1800
You can place MLB Home Run Derby betting picks on Caesars Sportsbook right now by clicking here to create a new account.
Home Run Derby Pick & Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +400 At Caesars
As outlined above, our MLB Home Run Derby best bet is on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +400 odds on Caesars Sportsbook. The Blue Jays slugger will be motivated to take the Derby crown after just falling short of winning back in 2019. While his first-round matchup against Mookie Betts might be tough at first glance, Vlad Jr. should have no issues moving on to the next round.
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