NFL Target Analysis: Week 2

With all of the turmoil at quarterback heading into Week 3, there is some uncertainty at wide receiver as well. I’d have an awfully hard time arguing any of the quarterback injuries are good for the affected receivers, though it is true that some quarterbacks target certain weapons more often than others, so we will be paying close attention to how those receivers are used in the coming weeks.

We had three usual suspects at the top of the target chart in Week 2 in Zach Ertz , Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas . They are fourth, second and first respectively through two weeks as well. We know what Allen is at this point, but the other two are pretty interesting. It’s not really shocking Ertz was targeted 15 times with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jefferey out, and it’s also not too surprising he only caught eight of them for 72 yards. I think we can probably pencil him in for more targets and fewer touchdowns if Jeffrey is out again in Week 3.

Michael Thomas ’s 13 targets were also interesting since most of them came from Teddy Bridgewater . I’m not sure Thomas’s target share can get much higher than it was under Drew Brees anyway, so his production will almost certainly dip. Still, it’s nice to think his floor will remain high until Brees returns.

Emmanuel Sanders certainly had the most eye-opening receiver performance in Week 2, catching 11 of 12 Targets for 98 yards, a touchdown and a 2-pt conversion against a stingy Bears defense. I’ll have an awfully hard time keeping him out of my lineups come Sunday. 

D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel had 12 and 11 targets respectively on Thursday, and while it’s an overstatement to say Cam Newton has been so bad it doesn’t matter if he plays in Week 3, it’s not an unreasonable take. Samuel only caught four of his targets but still had 82 yards. I still think they’re both pretty good players, but I wouldn’t be looking for an excuse to play either one in the near future.

Sammy Watkins had 12 targets in Week 2, and even though he only caught six for 49 yards, He feels like an elite receiver going forward. Kansas City’s offense feels a little bit like the Saints under Drew Brees . Any wide receiver can pop off in any given game, but at the end of the day, we know who the clear number one is. At least until Sammy Watkins gets hurt.

I would love to see Baltimore play a good team before I trust Mark Andrews , but we don’t have that luxury with tight ends. 10 targets in Week 2 and 18 for the season is certainly encouraging. 

Andrews’s teammate Marquise Brown feels a bit safer after he caught eight of 12 targets for 86 yards in Week 2. He’s a WR3/flex in most leagues, but he’s one more good game away from becoming an every-week starter.

Terry McLaurin had nine targets in Week 2 to give him 16 for the season. He’s caught a touchdown in both games, and while I don’t expect Washington to score a ton, I do feel like McLaurin went under the radar to some degree for waivers this week.

It is refreshing to see the new Broncos’ regime use Phillip Lindsay properly, even if we don’t have much to show for it yet. Lindsay has 13 targets through two weeks after he had just 47 targets in 15 games last season. The problem for Lindsay is the Broncos have what looks like a very tough schedule the next four weeks. I still think Lindsay is a good player with a high floor thanks to the increase in targets, but I plan to keep him on the bench for the foreseeable future.

I was a little surprised by how much everyone seemed to like Mike Williams coming into the season considering he has always struck me as a glorified tight end. Through two games, it certainly seems like he is being used that way. Williams has seven targets, and while it is nice to see him get two in the red zone, he belongs on your bench for now. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets double-digit touchdowns again with Hunter Henry missing more time, but I would hate to have to rely on someone who averaged 4.1 targets per game last season and appears to be heading for more of the same.

I really thought O.J. Howard would be perfect for Bruce Arians’s offense, considering his ability to get downfield and Arians’s proclivity for throwing it deep. Howard only had five targets so far, so perhaps I underestimated how much he hates tight ends. Maybe he’s the new Mike Martz, and we will have to wait for Howard to get traded to have much fantasy value, the way we had to wait with Greg Olsen . I certainly hope that’s not the case, and tight end is so ugly, I think you have to give Howard at least one more start to prove what he can do. That being said, I wouldn’t try to trade for him, because I am worried.