As we roll into Thursday in the NHL let me just mention what a stretch this month of January has been as the article is up around 5 units and riding the green streak! It has been super satisfying to watch the months of data and hard work start to pay off and if you have stuck around this whole season thank you so much, better days are here! Tonight we have 11 games on the NHL slate which means plenty of way to attack the board and today that includes some Money Lines, a game total and the Dog of the Day is back! If you like the rationale then tail the picks, if you don't feel free to fade as sometimes the best bets are the ones not taken!

  • Season Record: 76-63-3
  • Bankroll: +6.88 units
  • Dog of the Day Record: 6-8 (+1.05 Units)

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**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.

NHL Best Bets for January 18th

Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers

There's a handful of teams in the NHL right now playing well that I just don't buy and the Flyers are one of those teams. They continue to be a below average team in analytics such as Corsi % and xGF/60 and the way they play games just isn't sustainable especially against teams that have more talent then them. In addition to season long numbers the Flyers have scored just 2.2 goals per game on home ice over the past 30 days while allowing 3 goals a game. You can't operate at a negative defecit like that forever and against a Stars team allowing just 1.3 goals per game on the road the past month its going to be an issue. The Stars are also a great road team overall with a record of 12-4-3 on the season and a +30 goal differential. This game is just mispriced and I expect the Stars to win this contest straight up no problem. 

Pick: Dallas Stars Money Line (-135 on BetMGM)

 

Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning

Much like the first game in the write up today the Lightning are just a much better team than their opponent tonight in the Wild. Minnesota has now lost 8 of the past 10 games and now sit at 7-13 straight up on the season away from home with a -18 goal differential. The defense is the main culprit for the poor play as they've allowed 4.2 goals per game on the road the last 30 days but the offense isn't doing much to help either with 2.9 goals per game in that period. The once promising goaltender duo of Gustvasson and Fleury has fallen apart as well making things worse. On the Tampa Bay side they have been up and down but they are up right now looking for their 4th straight win and are 14-5-3 on home ice this season. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start in the net tonight and that's another boost as he has won his last 3 starts. Give me the Lightning on a line that could be way more chalky than it is on the books tonight. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-130 on Caesars)

 

Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers

On the surface you might think that beating an Oilers game would entail backing the over on the game total but in this instance you would be incorrect! The Oilers are batting down hatches right now on defense and its helping them win big games as they have now won 11 straight games. During the past month they have allowed 1.7 goals per game which is remarkable and in addition to that the offense has been quieter with just 14 goals in the last 5 games. Its a different version of the Oilers but hey, whatever works! On the Kraken side they have played great defense going back to before the holidays as they have allowed just 2.6 goals per game on the road over the last month. Kraken games have also gone under the total in 12 of 23 road games this season for a slight edge so even though it may feel weird I am on the under in this game tonight. 

Pick: Kraken & Oilers Under 6.5 Goals (-120 on BetMGM)

 

DOG OF THE DAY 

Nashville Predators Money Line vs Los Angeles Kings (+135 on FanDuel)