Hockey is back. The 2026-27 NHL season drops the puck on Tuesday, Sept. 29, the earliest start in league history, and it kicks off an 84-game regular season for the first time since 1993-94. Opening night brings five games, starting with Florida at Carolina at 5 p.m. ET as the Hurricanes raise their 2026 Stanley Cup banner. From there, Montreal visits Toronto at 7 p.m. ET, the Rangers head to Boston at 8 p.m. ET, Vancouver plays at Edmonton at 10 p.m. ET and Chicago closes the night in Vegas at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Our Underdog NHL Free Picks for opening night target the two early games. We are riding with a healthy Auston Matthews in Toronto's home opener and backing Brandon Bussi in the banner-raising game in Raleigh. Both plays lean on track records, confirmed roles, and matchups that set up well for volume, which is exactly what you want on a night with this many new faces and new lines. Let's get into it.

 

 

 

Underdog NHL Free Picks, Tuesday, 9/29: NHL DFS Projections

Opening night is the most unpredictable slate of the year. Rosters have been reshaped all summer, and Toronto made a six-player blockbuster with Columbus on Monday, less than 24 hours before puck drop. New head coaches are running benches in Toronto with Jim Hiller and in Vegas with Ryan Craig, and several goalie tandems are still sorting out their pecking order. That means last season's numbers only tell part of the story, and knowing where each player slots in tonight matters more than usual.

That is where Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections come in. Our projections cover every player on every slate, giving you a clear read on who is primed for shots, points, and saves before you build a lineup or lock in a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections are built to help you find the edges that the market has not caught up to yet.

Want full access all season long? Upgrade to an All Pro membership to unlock our complete NHL DFS Projections along with the rest of Fantasy Alarm's premium tools across every sport. It is the best way to back up our Underdog NHL Free Picks with your own research every night of the 84-game grind.

 

 

 

Auston Matthews NHL Underdog Pick: Over 3.5 SOG

Even in a down year, Auston Matthews put pucks on net at a high clip. The Maple Leafs captain registered 227 shots on goal across 60 games in 2025-26, which works out to roughly 3.8 per contest in a season he called injury-marred. His year ended in March with a Grade 3 MCL tear suffered against Anaheim, and he finished with 27 goals and 53 points, his first sub-point-per-game campaign since his rookie season. The shot volume never really went away, though, and that is the part of his profile that matters for this prop.

The longer track record is even stronger. Matthews has 2,760 career shots on goal in 689 games, and his 82-game average sits at 328 shots, right around four per night. He also led the entire league with 348 shots on goal during his 60-goal season in 2021-22. When he is healthy, 3.5 is a number he clears as part of his normal workload rather than as a ceiling outcome.

The health question looks answered. Matthews closed the preseason by scoring on four shots and adding two assists in a 6-1 win over Ottawa, and there has been no sign of lingering trouble from the knee. He opens the year centering the top line alongside Jack Roslovic, and Toronto just added Kirill Marchenko in Monday's trade with Columbus that sent Matthew Knies the other way. Marchenko signed a six-year, $75 million extension and is expected to slide into Knies' spot on Matthews' line, provided his immigration paperwork is finalized in time for his debut.

The game script works in our favor too. Toronto is a slight home underdog against Montreal, with the Canadiens sitting around -114 at FanDuel, and a Leafs team chasing the game typically leans on its captain even more. Add in the rivalry, the home opener atmosphere, and Gavin McKenna's debut on the second line, and this has the feel of a night where Toronto comes out firing. We are taking Matthews Over 3.5 shots on goal.

 

 

 

Brandon Bussi NHL Underdog Pick: Over 21.5 Saves

Brandon Bussi gets the nod for the Hurricanes' title defense. He took the starter's crease at Monday's practice, and Carolina's opening-night roster lists Pyotr Kochetkov, who signed a contract extension over the weekend, and Cayden Primeau behind him. With Frederik Andersen now in Edmonton, Bussi enters the year as the 1A in the Carolina crease. That role certainty matters, because a confirmed starter is the foundation of any saves prop.

Bussi's rookie season was one of the best stories in hockey. He went 31-6-2 with a 2.47 GAA, an .895 save percentage, and two shutouts across 39 starts, and he became the fastest goaltender in NHL history to reach 20 career wins. He then took over in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final and closed out the series against Vegas. Over those 39 regular-season starts, he faced 912 shots and made 816 saves, which comes out to just under 21 saves per start behind a Carolina team that allowed only 23.93 shots per game.

So why the Over? The opponent. Florida averaged 28.0 shots per game last season even while missing the playoffs and playing the entire year without captain Aleksander Barkov. The Panthers also ranked fifth in offensive zone time percentage and ninth in 5-on-5 shot attempt share, so the underlying process was strong even when the results were not. Now Barkov is back, and Florida added Brady Tkachuk, who put 221 shots on net in just 60 games with Ottawa last season.

Tkachuk is the only player in the league with at least 300 points, 1,000 shots on goal and 800 hits over the past five seasons combined, and he skated with Barkov and Sam Reinhart in the preseason. This is also a divisional matchup featuring the last three Stanley Cup champions, with Brady making his Panthers debut next to brother Matthew. Florida should push volume all night against an emotional home team, and that puts Bussi in line for a heavier workload than his season average. We like Bussi Over 21.5 saves.

 

 

 

Play Our NHL Picks for Today's Games With Underdog Promo Code ALARM To Earn Over $75 in Bonuses

Ready to start the season with a winner? New users can sign up with Underdog promo code ALARM to earn over $75 in bonuses. Once your account is set up, take Auston Matthews Higher on 3.5 shots on goal and Brandon Bussi Higher on 21.5 saves to build your opening night entry.

Underdog makes it easy to play NHL player props every night of the season, from shots and points to goalie saves. Pair our Underdog NHL Free Picks with Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections, and you will have everything you need to attack every slate of the 2026-27 campaign. Sign up with promo code ALARM today and claim over $75 in bonuses before puck drop.