Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 1: Player Projections & Fantasy Picks, 9/13

Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 1's Sunday slate features a Buccaneers receiver room in transition and a Falcons team turning to its third-string quarterback on the road. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for Sunday's Week 1 action, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

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Buccaneers vs. Bengals and Falcons vs. Steelers: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Tampa Bay opens its season on the road in Cincinnati with a receiver room that looks different after losing Mike Evans in free agency, while Atlanta travels to Pittsburgh already down to its third option at quarterback with both Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa sidelined by injuries. Both games carry real uncertainty at key positions, which opens the door for clear value on either side of the ball. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.

Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 1

Chris Godwin NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 49.5 Receiving Yards

Godwin has looked like an every-down difference maker whenever he's been on the field, and every report out of Tampa this summer says he's fully healthy heading into Week 1. With Mike Evans now with the 49ers and Emeka Egbuka still working through a lingering toe injury that limited him most of camp, the target competition at the top of this offense has thinned out considerably. Cincinnati's defense gave up more passing yards than any team in the NFL last season, and one leading analyst has already projected Godwin for ten-plus targets in this one. Expecting him to clear 49.5 yards as the team's top healthy option against a defense that bad through the air feels like the right side.

Cooper Rush NFL Underdog Pick: Lower 30.5 Pass Attempts

Atlanta is down to its third-string quarterback for the opener, with both Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa sidelined by injuries and Cooper Rush stepping into the starting role on the road. That's about as difficult a spot as a team can be in during Week 1, and it's happening against a Steelers front that returns T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward and added corner Jamel Dean and safety Jaquan Brisker this offseason, one of the more well-rounded defenses in the league. Expect the Falcons to lean on Bijan Robinson and their ground game to shorten the field as much as possible rather than asking Rush to throw the ball 35-plus times. A limited pass volume approach behind a banged-up quarterback room feels like the obvious game plan here.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 1 Sunday

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Godwin and Rush as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

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