Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Thursday Night Football brings the 4-2 Patriots to Soldier Field to face the 4-2 Bears, with Chicago a slight home favorite. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 7 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Patriots vs. Bears: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
New England's receiver room has been reshuffled again, with Romeo Doubs on injured reserve and A.J. Brown limited with an ankle injury, which opens more work for DeMario Douglas. In Chicago, D'Andre Swift is the clear lead back with Kyle Monangai sidelined, and he has been the team's goal-line option. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 7
DeMario Douglas NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 39.5 Receiving Yards
With Romeo Doubs headed to injured reserve with a shoulder injury, Douglas has stepped into a larger role in New England's receiver room, catching seven of eight targets for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, his second straight game with a score. In the stretch with Doubs off the field, he ran a route on 72.7% of dropbacks and led the team with a 28.6% target share per route at 2.31 yards per route. A.J. Brown is questionable with an ankle injury after limited practices, and Mack Hollins is also on injured reserve, so the targets are there for Douglas again. Clearing 39.5 receiving yards looks like a reasonable ask for a receiver in this role.
D'Andre Swift NFL Underdog Pick: Anytime TD
Swift has been Chicago's primary goal-line back, scoring twice from inside the 10-yard line against Atlanta last week for six rushing touchdowns through six games, and he took 16 carries, three of them inside the five, with Kyle Monangai sidelined with toe and hand injuries. Monangai is expected to miss another week on the short turnaround, which should leave Swift with at least 15 touches again. The Bears are favored at home by about three points and have been the league's top rushing team over the past two seasons. New England's run defense ranks sixth in yards allowed, but it has allowed five rushing touchdowns in its first five games, and a back with this much work near the goal line is a good bet to score. Roschon Johnson also scored last week, which is the main risk.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Patriots vs. Bears
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Douglas and Swift as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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