Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 9's Sunday slate features a Chiefs back looking to bounce back against a Jets run defense that ranks 24th in DVOA and a Falcons tight end facing the Bengals in Madrid. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 9 slate, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Jets vs. Chiefs and Bengals vs. Falcons: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Kenneth Walker and the Chiefs host a Jets team that ranks 24th in rush defense DVOA, and Kyle Pitts and the Falcons face a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against tight ends in the NFL's Madrid game. Both offensive players should be bouncing back from quiet weeks. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 9
Kenneth Walker NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 90.5 Rushing Yards
Walker leads Kansas City with 770 rushing yards and six touchdowns, averaging 110 yards per game and 5.5 per carry, and he topped 90.5 yards in four of his first five games with 173, 117, 177, and 128 before two quiet weeks against two of the league's better defenses. Seattle held him to 36 yards and Denver to 69 on 21 carries, but there are no workload concerns, as Walker is still the clear lead back. The Jets rank 24th in rush defense DVOA, and the Chiefs are 9.5-point home favorites. He should be able to get back on track, and over 90.5 rushing yards looks like a reasonable bet.
Kyle Pitts NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 4.5 Receptions
Pitts has been involved all season, with 32 targets through eight games, and he had five catches in three straight games before last week's rain game in Tampa Bay, where the weather and Penix's four interceptions sank Atlanta's offense. He has a 17.5% target share and a 21.2% first-read share since Week 5, and the Bengals rank 30th in DVOA against tight ends, giving up seven catches per game to the position, second-most in the league. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite with a 52.5 total in Madrid, so Atlanta should be throwing. This is a plus-money play at 4.5 receptions, and over 4.5 looks like a good bounce-back bet.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 9 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Walker and Pitts as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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