Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today for Sunday Night Football? The 3-5 Buccaneers visit the 6-2 Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday night, with Chicago a 6.5-point favorite and the total near 47. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 9 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Buccaneers vs. Bears: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Tampa Bay has leaned on Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell while Baker Mayfield works back from a thumb injury, and Chicago faces the league's top defense by DVOA with Luther Burden leading its receiving group. Both of our picks come down to volume. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for SNF, Week 9
Luther Burden NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 4.5 Receptions
Burden has been Chicago's most targeted receiver, with 56 targets and 42 catches through eight games, and he has five or more receptions in four of them, including seven on nine targets against Seattle and eight on eight targets against Atlanta. With Caleb Williams healthy, he has 19 catches for 281 yards and two touchdowns over the last three games. Tampa Bay's pass defense ranks second in DVOA, so efficiency may be tough, but Burden's role is steady, and Chicago should be throwing as a 6.5-point home favorite. Over 4.5 receptions looks like a reasonable bet on target volume.
Kenneth Gainwell NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 6.5 Rushing Attempts
Gainwell has gone from a minor role to a real one in Tampa Bay's ground game, with 14 carries for 88 yards against Carolina and a career-high 25 carries for 140 yards against Atlanta, 39 carries in his last two games after 19 through his first six. The Bucs have a passing game that ranks last in the NFL, with Baker Mayfield attempting just 14 passes since his return from a thumb injury, so they have been leaning on Gainwell and Bucky Irving. Chicago ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA and allows 4.4 yards per carry. Gainwell is healthy after moving to full practice with his hip issue, and clearing 6.5 carries looks like a fair play.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Buccaneers vs. Bears
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Burden and Gainwell as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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