Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today for Sunday Night Football? The 2-3 Cowboys visit the 3-2 Packers at Lambeau Field with a total near 52 and Green Bay a slight favorite. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 6 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Cowboys vs. Packers: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Jordan Love torched Chicago for 367 yards last week and now faces a Cowboys defense with the league's highest opponent passer rating, while Dallas' offense, led by Javonte Williams in the backfield, aims for a Packers defense that has struggled against running backs and will be without Micah Parsons. Both teams enter with plenty to prove after uneven starts. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for SNF, Week 6
Jordan Love NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Love threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago last week and has 10 touchdown passes through five games, with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden playing like one of the league's best receiver duos. Dallas has allowed a league-high 120.5 opponent passer rating, and one analyst called the Cowboys the NFL's worst defense over their last 22 games, a stretch that began with the Micah Parsons trade. Cornerback Cobie Durant is out and Porter and Speed are questionable, so the Cowboys' secondary could be thin again. With Green Bay a small favorite at Lambeau and a total near 52, Love clearing 1.5 touchdown passes looks like the right side.
Javonte Williams NFL Underdog Pick: Anytime TD
Williams has been a touchdown machine for Dallas, scoring seven times in five games, with three against the Texans and a one-yard run against the Buccaneers last week. Green Bay's run defense has been a fantasy-friendly matchup, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, while Micah Parsons remains on injured reserve and the Packers' defensive tackle group is thin. Dallas is a small underdog on the road, and a close, high-scoring game should offer plenty of chances near the goal line. The market even has Williams as the favorite to score the first touchdown at +450, which says plenty about his role.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Cowboys vs. Packers
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Love and Williams as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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