Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today for Sunday Night Football? The Ravens visit the Falcons without Lamar Jackson, with Atlanta favored by about three points and a total near 43.5. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 5 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Ravens vs. Falcons: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Tyler Huntley takes over at quarterback for Baltimore after Jackson was ruled out with an ankle injury, while Atlanta has scored 80 points over its last two games with Michael Penix back under center and a ground game that ran for 205 yards against New Orleans. The Ravens will lean on short throws to Mark Andrews, and the Falcons have little reason to ask Penix to throw much. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for SNF, Week 5

Mark Andrews NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 Receptions

Andrews leads Baltimore in targets with 24 through four games and has hauled in 18 of them, including at least four catches in three of four weeks. His quarterback changes this week with Jackson out, but that history points in his favor, as he has averaged 5.2 catches and 7.8 targets per game in 13 games with Huntley as the starter, and Huntley's career average depth of target of 7.3 yards lines up with Andrews' 6.9 this season. Atlanta's pass rush has been one of the most aggressive in the league, so quick throws to a tight end over the middle should be a big part of the Ravens' plan. Clearing 3.5 receptions looks like the right side.

Michael Penix NFL Underdog Pick: Lower 28.5 Pass Attempts

Penix threw just 18 passes in his return against Green Bay and 20 against New Orleans, completing 31 of 38 for 479 yards, because Atlanta's offense has been built around Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson The Falcons have scored 80 points over the last two games and ran for 205 yards against the Saints, and Baltimore's defense ranks 24th in opponent rush EPA without pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. Atlanta is favored by about three points at home, and with Huntley starting for the Ravens, the Falcons should be comfortable leaning on the ground game again. Staying under 28.5 attempts fits how this offense has operated since Penix returned.

 

 

 

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Ravens vs. Falcons

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Andrews and Penix as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

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