Week 12's Thursday Night Football pits the Buffalo Bills (7-3) against the Houston Texans (5-5) in a pivotal AFC matchup at NRG Stadium. Buffalo aims to solidify their divisional lead, while Houston clings to playoff hopes despite the absence of QB C.J. Stroud (concussion, out for the third straight game), thrusting Davis Mills into the starting role. With the Bills favored by 6 points and a total of 43.5, expect a mix of ground control and aerial fireworks. For Underdog Fantasy users, we've got free picks centered on Josh Allen and Nick Chubb, complete with projections, stats, and insights to boost your entries.

Underdog NFL Picks For TNF Week 12, 11/20

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Josh Allen Underdog NFL Pick: Higher Than 0.5 Rush/Rec Touchdown

Allen is the definition of a dual-threat QB, and his scoring prowess makes him an Underdog favorite for anytime TD props. In 10 games, Allen has racked up 351 rushing yards on 65 carries (5.4 YPC) and 10 rushing scores, hitting paydirt on the ground in nearly every outing. Standout performances include three TDs vs. Tampa Bay, two against Kansas City, and two versus Carolina, showcasing his goal-line reliability. Houston's defense is elite overall (79.2 opponent rush yards and 14.8 points allowed per game), but Allen's mobility often overrides tough matchups. Projections peg him at 1.2 rushing TDs, considering Buffalo's red-zone efficiency and Allen's central role in designed runs. 

 

 

 

Nick Chubb Underdog NFL Pick: Higher Than 21.5 Rushing Yards

Chubb remains a steady force in a committee backfield, offering value as an Underdog pick against a vulnerable Bills run defense. Through 10 games, Chubb averages 41.9 yards on 9.9 attempts (4.2 YPC), surpassing 21.5 yards in eight contests, including recent outputs of 47, 34, and 56 yards, and even in his quieter games of 16 and 17 yards, he was on the cusp. Last week's season-low three attempts vs. Tennessee was an anomaly, and a rebound is expected here. Buffalo ranks 31st in run defense, surrendering 153.0 yards and 25.6 attempts per game to opponents.
 

 


 

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