The 2023 NFL season finally kicks off tonight with a Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs. There are plenty of NFL picks on the board at Underdog Fantasy tonight, so let's jump right in. Lions running back David Montgomery is one of our top NFL Underdog picks today. Plus, we look at a pick for Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore while we await a more definitive Travis Kelce injury update. Enjoy these NFL Underdog top plays and football picks as you enjoy tonight's season opener. If you're making more NFL picks tonight or setting NFL DFS lineups, check out our NFL daily projections. Plus, don't forget our fantasy football player rankings for every position as you set those season-long lineups. Now, let's dive into the top NFL Week 1 picks on Underdog Fantasy for Thursday night's Lions vs Chiefs showdown. 

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NFL Underdog Fantasy Top Picks

Week 1 Thursday Night Football Lions vs Chiefs

David Montgomery, Detroit Lions – HIGHER than 52.5 Rushing Yards

Last season, Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns and had over 1,000 rushing yards for the Detroit Lions. Williams is gone but the Lions signed David Montgomery to a three-year, $18-million contract this offseason to fill the void. Detroit also used the 12th overall pick on Jahmyr Gibbs in this year’s NFL Draft and the rookie is getting a ton of pre-season fantasy football hype. Still, Montgomery should see the majority of carries as the Lions’ traditional lead back and early-down rusher. Meanwhile, Gibbs likely steps into the vacated pass-catching role of D’Andre Swift in the Lions backfield.

Montgomery has put up four straight seasons of 800+ rushing yards to begin his NFL career. He’s proven he can consistently handle double-digit carries in a lead-back role. Gibbs, on the other hand, should be used more as a change-of-pace RB for Detroit while also getting more reps in the slot. The Lions receiving corps outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown leaves a lot to be desired, so Gibbs’ pass-catching ability will come in handy. 

Montgomery put up at least 53 rushing yards in nine of 12 games last season when he saw at least 12 carries for the Chicago Bears. That was also with Justin Fields racking up 1,143 rushing yards and Khalil Herbert running for 731 yards in the Bears offense. In his new Lions offense, QB Jared Goff is not a threat to run and Gibbs won’t get as many carries as Herbert to take away from Montgomery’s production.

When Williams got 12+ carries in games last year for Detroit, he ran for 53+ yards in 11 of 14 instances. If we pencil in Montgomery for 12-15 rushing attempts tonight, then he has a strong chance at 60+ rushing yards. Another key factor is that the Lions may want to lean on the run game more to keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Plus, stud Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones may be out for this opener in the midst of his contract negotiation. 

Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs – HIGHER than 47.5 Receiving Yards

The big storyline for the Kansas City Chiefs tonight is the Travis Kelce injury. There’s a good chance Kelce sits out this season opener after hyperextending his knee in practice earlier this week. Even if he suits up, Kelce will likely be limited and/or be used as a decoy in the passing game. His potential absence opens a lot of receiving targets and production in the Chiefs' WR corps. 

Skyy Moore was already expected to take on a bigger role in the Chiefs offense. He may be thrust into even more targets and receiving yards early on with Kelce injured. Moore only had 250 receiving yards and 22 catches last year as a rookie. This season, though, he becomes Kansas City’s starting slot WR with JuJu Smith-Schuster gone. 

Smith-Schuster had 45+ receiving yards in six of the first eight games to begin last season. There’s a good chance Moore steps right into that lost production and his floor/ceiling gets raised more with the Kelce injury situation. He’ll be competing for targets with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice, and Kadarius Toney in the Chiefs wide receiver room. MVS is more of a downfield threat, Rice is a rookie who may not be involved much in the early weeks, and Toney is dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss most of training camp. 

By default, Moore could end up being a favorite target for Patrick Mahomes in this season opener. If Kelce sits out, then a lot of the underneath receptions may also go Moore’s way – and more so than Rice or MVS. 

 

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