Now is when we start to REALLY get an advantage over the competition. Now that we have five weeks in the books, we have a big enough sample size where our data makes a meaningful difference vs. the competition. We not only know more about how these guys are being deployed, but we also know more about the matchups they are facing. So you’ll notice a little more of an analytical approach this week - heck, there’s even a chart in there. THAT is how we win. 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 6

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $8,300

We like to look at a LOT of underlying metrics. It’s the only way to differentiate some of these guys on such a small sample size. And, while some might say Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are equal, the underlying metrics favor Bowers in many cases.

For instance, both players have similar route participation and target share. But Bowers runs more routes from a WR spot, he pass blocks less, he has a higher aDOT, and has a higher first-read target share. They have virtually the same number of screens, receptions vs. man-to-man, and endzone targets, but Bowers has gotten all his in three games vs. five for McBride. That’s why Bowers has a yards per route run of 2.92 vs. 1.66 for McBride. So we already prefer Bowers, and that’s before we realize that McBride is going up against the number one defense against tight ends this year. 

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $5,700

Tyler Warren has been an important lesson for folks in “staying the course”. The underlying metrics for him this year have been great as he’s been top five in snap share, route participation, target share, first-read target share, screens etc. It just hasn’t quite all come together for him - but it will.

He also has the gadget upside like we saw last week with the rushing touchdown. This is a former quarterback, so not only are tush pushes and end-arounds on the table, but he’s lined up in the wildcat before, and he attempted a pass last year. It’s hard to predict where or when any of that will happen, but Warren is always on the table because of it. Bowers and both of our mid-tier picks will be pretty chalky, which makes Warren an interesting pivot. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For Week 6

PLAY OF THE WEEK

Isaiah Likely, New York Giants

DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $5,500

The pricing for Isaiah Likely makes virtually no sense to us. Isaiah Likely has been an absolute target machine - he literally has the highest target share of any tight end, which is crazy considering Brock Bowers and Trey McBride exist. And there is one key secret for all three tight ends that make them the top three in fantasy points per game - they are basically just playing wide receiver. This chart here shows overall route participation vs. inline snap percentage for tight ends, meaning the farther right you are the more you are playing overall and the farther down you are, the more wide receiver snaps you are playing. The three guys in the bottom right are basically just full-time wide receivers.

Not only that but Likely has a juicy matchup this week with the New Orleans Saints. They are currently allowing the ninth-most points to the tight end, while a couple of the worst teams vs. the tight end, like the Lions (last), Commanders (second-to-last), and Dolphins (bottom-five) are either on bye or off the slate in primetime. Likely is almost too easy a play this week. 

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $5,000

Pat Freiermuth is probably going to be pretty chalky this week. But that’s for good reason. The Steelers already lost Michael Pittman Jr to plantar fasciitis. Then, during the Week 6 game, they lost Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek as well. All three have already been ruled out for this week.

What the Steelers did to adjust is run a lot more two-tight-end sets. That saw Darnell Washington step into an inline role (more on that below) with Freiermuth running 27 routes from a WR spot. Muth already has four touchdowns in five games, but the changes this week could mean more than just being a TD dart throw.

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For Week 6

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

DraftKings: $3,900 | FanDuel: $5,100

We realize that we need someone somewhere in between Freiermuth at $4,400 and the crazy deep dart throws that are coming up next. So Dallas Goedert is our answer there. If Kenyon Sadiq doesn’t pass concussion protocol, Mason Taylor could be interesting. But it looks like Sadiq is trending towards being available.

Last week, we were nervous Goedert could be eased in. And we were worried that Zach Ertz could eat into some of Goedert’s work. But then none of that happened. Goedert went out and played a fairly normal snap share while getting a bloated NINE targets. We don’t necessarily LOVE this play this week, but if the rest of your lineup is perfect and you need something reliable in this price range, he’s not a bad option. He’s always been a decent cash game floor play. 

Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings: $2,900 | FanDuel: $4,700

We pretty much never include two tight ends from the same team in these articles. But these are pretty rare circumstances with the Steelers losing THREE wide receivers in an incredibly short span. As we mentioned above, that saw more two-tight-end sets in Pittsburgh. Pat Freiermuth played 41 snaps, but Mount Washington ended up playing 38 himself. Muth is the better play in a vacuum because he skews more towards route running, but the price discrepancy actually makes Washington an interesting dart throw since he’s under $3,000 on DraftKings. One catch for a touchdown would pay off that price, and we know he’s capable of that. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Bonus Dart Throw

Charlie Kolar, Los Angeles Chargers

DraftKings: $2,500 | FanDuel: $4,600

This is not typically the kind of guy we go for. He’s the inline tight end for his team who also uses another tight end on pass downs, and those guys virtually never have the kind of upside we look for. But these aren’t typical circumstances in Los Angeles, where things are, quite frankly, a complete mess.

All their wide receivers are banged up, so we don’t really know for sure who will be available this week out of Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre Harris. We do know all three were either limited or out on Wednesday. If even one of them is out, that could be more two tight end sets for the Chargers.

As we mentioned, Kolar skews inline with Gadsden towards WR. But Kolar still played more overall snaps and ran 26 routes to Gadsden's 27. And he got more targets than Gadsden did. With Gadsden priced at $3,800 on DraftKings and Kolar at the bare minimum $2,500, we’ll actually take the discount on the inline guy rather than spending up for Gadsden, who has been ineffective. 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 6

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $7,400

Seems kind of crazy we would do this because of how good McBride is. But it’s just a matter of economics. Check out the Brock Bowers section ahead. If these guys are going to be priced that similarly, we have to favor Bowers. There’s also a real chance that the Rams simply are THAT good against the tight end this year. They are allowing an absurd 6.4 DraftKings points to the combined position - not just starting tight ends, all of them. If they shut McBride down this week, even the great Bowers might vs. in the fades section next week as the Rams face the Raiders in Week 7. 

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints - DraftKings: $4,500 | FanDuel: $5,100

We have been warning you guys about this for weeks. When everyone is healthy, Juwan Johnson might not be a full-time player. And I’m not just talking about the return of Jordyn Tyson. Both Oscar Delp and Noah Fant have missed time but, when they are in there, they eat into the work for Johnson. In fact, just this past week, Noah Fant played more snaps than Johnson. With his price right in between two players we love this week, Isaiah Likely and Pat Freiermuth, we probably won’t have Johnson in any lineups this week.