We love Week 4. The first few weeks of the season are chaos. There’s so much randomness. Anyone can win. After three weeks, though, we can now really form patterns and trends. The folks like yourself, who actually come read the articles looking for some sort of edge, are now at a big advantage. And those advantages are only going to grow as the season goes on and we get more data, more film, more narratives. Now is when we start to separate ourselves from the pack. 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 4

Trey McBride TE, Arizona Cardinals DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $7,400

I get that Brock Bowers is back. And if you can afford Brock Bowers, he’s a great play as well. But what I don’t get is why DraftKings decided to lower the price for Trey McBride this week. Is there some rule that only one tight end can be priced at $6,900?

Trey McBride has still gotten double-digit targets in every single week. That not only makes him a clear top-tier TE option, but he’s also a viable flex play with 22 guys priced higher than him (and this slate obviously doesn’t include the primetime games, so there are more good players omitted). This man currently has the 4th most targets of any player in the league - the disrespect is because he’s labeled TE.

Dalton Kincaid TE, Buffalo Bills, DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $6,100

When it comes to analysis, I am unbiased. But many of you know I am a Patriots fan. And, as both an analyst and a Patriots fan, I don’t believe they are actually the best defense in the league against the tight end. I think it’s more that they faced AJ Barner, Pat Freiermuth, and Brenton Strange instead of guys like Bowers, McBride, Kittle, etc. They aren’t the worst either, but I think that red 1 as the matchup is going to scare some folks off of Kincaid.

The key here is that the usage for Kincaid didn’t change in Week 3 compared to other weeks. He still ran 70% of the routes, which is more than he’s done in past years. The game script just didn’t call for a lot of passing, with Josh Allen only completing 16 passes. I think Kincaid bounces back this week. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For Week 4

Tucker Kraft TE, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $5,800

This is a perfect opportunity for us to practice what we preach when it comes to dropped passes. And that’s that; unless it’s a fringe player who could actually get benched, they don’t matter. So two drops for Tucker Kraft last week really just represent opportunities that he didn’t capitalize on - and should capitalize on moving forward.

In that context, the fact that he ran 40+ routes and got 8 targets is what matters most to us. People think he’s blocking more with the offensive line issues, but that simply isn’t true; he only blocked on two pass plays. With slot receiver Jayden Reed out, Tucker Kraft should bounce back in a big way here, and he’s not only affordable, but folks are scared to use him. We aren’t. 

Kenyon Sadiq TE, New York Jets - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $5,300

Sadiq was our favorite value play last week by far at $3,200. And he paid off in a big way. In the write-up last week, we specifically said that you should get Sadiq in there because he has a chance to blow up and, if he does, his price might never be this affordable again. 

Well, he did go off. And they did raise his price by $800. But conditions haven’t really changed much with Omar Cooper Jr. and Mason Taylor out. Plus, it's a good matchup against the Bears. So we are willing to “ride this one to the top” to see if Sadiq can do it again - at which case the DFS platforms will eventually be forced to keep bumping his price up until he doesn’t pay out for us anymore. 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For Week 4

Brenton Strange TE,  - DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $5,100 

This is not a guy we typically focus on. This team has too many wide receivers, and he’s more of an inline guy. But recently the Jaguars have embraced a bit more of the two tight end sets the league is skewing towards (at the expense of Brian Thomas And, perhaps most importantly, Strange faces that Bengal lineup that we love to target. 

Greg Dulcich TE, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $4,800 

Yeah yeah, I know. Dulcich has not been the redraft savior we were hoping for. But he’s had some glimmer of hope here. He’s had a route participation over 70% in two of these games, including last week. And he also came out and had 7 targets last week as well. That’s nothing to sneeze at. 

Sometimes these guys just need to make a big play like Dulcich did last week, and now the team wants to find ways to get them more involved. Losing a target hog like De’Von Achane doesn’t hurt, plus Caleb Douglas is nicked up. Dulcich is going to score one of these weeks and pay off at this price; it’s only a matter of when. 

AJ Barner TE, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $4,900

This isn’t typically the type of tight end we target. He’s slow. He plays too many snaps inline. He blocks on too many pass plays. Yet the Seahawks really like this guy. Not only does he have a decent route participation, but he’s also their Tush Push QB, which has already resulted in one touchdown this year. Last week was probably an outlier in terms of targets, but $3000 is too cheap for a starting tight end. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 4

Dalton Schultz TE, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $5,600

Dalton Schultz was a fun little play a week ago when he was dirt cheap, and conditions were great. And he hit in a big way for us with 12 catches. The thing is, Dalton Schultz is not a particularly special player; that was just a situation where the Texans had no other options (and we knew that). Now that Schultz is priced with actually elite tight ends, we are not particularly interested. 

Jake Ferguson TE, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $5,400

Touchdowns have masked a serious problem going on with Jake Ferguson. We were already worried about him being the third target on the team behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. But he’s not even that; Ryan Flournoy is the third target, and Ferguson is fourth (with only 11 targets on the season). So we really don’t like paying this price to bet on a touchdown.