ThriveFantasy NFL Top Picks & Plays: AFC/NFC Championship Weekend
Published: Jan 29, 2023
Updated: Jan 29, 2023
It's championship weekend in the NFL with the AFC and NFC titles on the line. In the AFC Championship, we have the Cincinnati Bengals going up against the Kansas City Chiefs. While in the NFC Championship game, we see the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Philadelphia Eagles. With these two teams, there are once again plenty of player props to target over on Thrive Fantasy whether it be for your pick'em contests or your player prop tickets this weekend.
AFC Championship Player Prop Top Plays
Joe Burrow Over 277.5 Passing Yards
This number may seem high to those who are looking at Burrow's production over the previous two playoff games this season but this weekend's matchup against the Chiefs is against a much easier defense to throw the football on than what Burrow was facing against the Bills and Ravens. The Chiefs defense this season ranked just 20th in DVOA against the pass and Burrow eclipsed this total when these two teams met earlier this season, throwing for 286 yards. With a healthy Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd at his disposal I would look for Burrow to be throwing early and often in this matchup.
Joe Mixon Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs allowed the most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this season and Mixon is coming off of a career year when it comes to his involvement in the team's passing offense. He nearly eclipsed this total in the two playoff games already this postseason against much tougher defenses. There were only four games all season where Mixon went under this total.
NFC Championship Player Prop Top Plays
Jalen Hurts Under 300.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
There has been no bigger Jalen Hurts fan than myself this season, but I have to be realistic about the matchup he is about to come up against and that is one against a defense that may be the best in the NFL. The 49ers are no joke defensively, with a strong front seven that makes it difficult to run the football against and a solid secondary as well. I think the Eagles win this game but I'm not sure we see much more than 230 yards passing from Hurts here and 70+ yards rushing seems high as well just given the caliber of defense he is up against.
Brock Purdy Under 234.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
The top defense in the NFL this season was the Philadelphia Eagles. They had a league-leading 70 sacks on the year, 15 more than the next-best team. They also had 17 interceptions. They ranked 1st in DVOA defense against the pass but just 21st against the run and I think a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell could be in store for this matchup. Purdy went under this total last week in another tough matchup against Dallas and it's only getting harder this week with the 49ers also being on the road.