The survivor pool end is near. NFL Week 16 has arrived and this is it. Do or die. Well, you’ve got a couple of weeks still to go, but right now, if you’re looking for the best survivor pool strategy, it means you’re still alive that is absolutely amazing. The primary upset from last week came as the New Orleans Saints did it to everyone again, this time against the Carolina Panthers. Might be time to avoid that NFC South, amirite? Well, that pick weeded out a ton of people but we still have a ways to go, so let’s just get to the top NFL Week 16 survivor picks. We’ve got work to do.

 

 

 As always, the best survivor pool strategy isn’t simply about picking the biggest favorite each week; it’s about understanding matchups, managing risk, and planning weeks ahead. Not too many weeks. Just four remaining in the NFL regular season. Sometimes, though, the football gods have a different plan. You can do all the right things, make the best picks and still find yourself on the losing side of things, like what we’ve witnessed several times this season already. We’ll try and help you avoid that as best we can. Those who are still in it are ready to scratch and claw their way to the final weeks, so identifying the best survivor pool strategy can be the key to outlasting the competition and claiming the prize. In this week’s article we'll take you through our process to help you make the most sensible picks to advance to next week and beyond.

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy for 2025 NFL Week 16

When it comes to lining up our top NFL Week 16 survivor picks, our mindset hasn’t changed regarding what the best survivor pool strategy should be. It continues to revolve around the "chalky" plays, if they are still available to you. You should definitely be looking ahead, but we’re still looking at the reliable favorites with the biggest spreads and hopefully, not overexposed in most pools. We prefer to have a home team and, in a lot of cases, avoid divisional matchups and short weeks if we can. Of course, the schedule-makers have a tendency to overload the back-end of the schedule with a lot of divisional match-ups, hoping to increase the drama. That’s great for TV ratings, but not for our survivor pool anxiety levels.

Here in NFL Week 16, the premium examples are the Houston Texans who are a 14.5-point home-favorite over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Buffalo Bills who are a 10-point road-favorite over the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions who are a 7-point home-favorite over the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you have any of the three available, our friends over at Pool Genius have them listed as their top-three for this week, though not necessarily in that order. Keep reading to see who else Pool Genius recommends among their top-five picks this week 

 

 

Dominate Your Survivor Pool with Pool Genius

Back in Week 3, you got a great introduction to Pool Genius and everything they have to offer. It doesn’t matter that it’s Week 16 – there is still an opportunity for you to join and still take advantage of everything they have to offer. If this is your first time hearing about them, please allow me to show you the way, because they have some exciting tools to help you make the right picks. What happens is, you load in all the information about your pool – how many total participants, cost per entry, specific rules to your pool regarding things like repeat picks or buybacks and since we are already here in Week 16, who you’ve taken so far. From there, they analyze all the data and make suggestions as to who to take, so it is a VERY personalized service.

To continue guiding you, I am using all the tools Pool Genius has to offer and making one of my picks based solely off their data and recommendations. The pick I had been tracking in this article series had Arizona in Week 5, so I had to shift gears. As I lost my final pick on Black Friday thanks to the Eagles, I am out personally, but still using the tools here to help guide you to a win. I will simply discuss the top few recommended picks overall and from there, you can determine who you want to take each week.

The top Pool Genius recommendations are as follows:

  1. Detroit Lions (vs Pittsburgh Steelers, 5% popularity)
  2. Houston Texans (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 49% popularity)
  3. Buffalo Bills (at Cleveland Browns, 9% popularity)
  4. Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Commanders, 14% popularity)
  5. San Francisco 49ers (at Indianapolis Colts, 6% popularity)

According to Pool Genius the Texans are expected to be the most popular pick this week (49%) as a 14.5-point home favorite with a -1000 money line. I have no doubt that this would be my pick if I was still in the hunt and had them still available. The game that ranks second-highest in popularity is actually the Eagles who are listed with an 72% win probability as a 6.5-point road-favorite against the Commanders. Pool Genius lists them as their fourth-favorite this week and while I think they can deliver, the road, divisional game does give me pause.

Now before I get to my favorite picks to use, I do want to remind you that Pool Genius is a paid service, but for the Fantasy Alarm #Family, they have some discounts available to you. The data and service they provide has been fantastic thus far and I feel confident using their suggestions. 

 

 

Now let’s get to my three favorite options for NFL Week 16:

NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 16

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans: Pick Houston Texans

Our friends over at Pool Genius list this one as their second-favorite this week, but I have them first for me. The defense alone is going to beat up on the Raiders and C.J. Stroud looks primed to dominate. The Raiders have allowed an average of 27 points per game over their last eight and in five of those games, they allowed 30-points or more. Stroud at home against them? Come on. 

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns: Pick Buffalo Bills

This one is my second-favorite while the folks at Pool Genius have it as their third on the list. Given the way the Bills have played recently, I don’t even care that this is a road game. Josh Allen knows he’s playing for playoff life here, as well as for the division against the New England Patriots. Him and James Cook alone could do it.

Not to mention, the whole league has watched Shedeur Sanders play and are very much aware of the low aDOT. I expect the Bills linebackers, particularly Matt Milano, to do some damage here. The Bills want this aa whole lot more.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions: Pick Detroit Lions

Pool Genius lists this game as their favorite on the slate and I could definitely understand why. Yes, the Steelers are coming off a fantastic Monday night performance and Aaron Rodgers looks like he and his receivers are finally on the same page, but the Lions are still in the playoff hunt and they cannot afford another loss. Expect to see a whole lot of Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

These are the picks in my order of preference this week. Best of luck to you all in your survivor pool contests.

 

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