Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Week 9's Sunday slate features a Rams back with a growing role and a Cardinals quarterback walking into the league's best defense by yards allowed. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 9 slate, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Rams vs. Commanders and Cardinals vs. Seahawks: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Blake Corum and the Rams are road favorites at Washington, where the Commanders' front is down Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw, while Gardner Minshew makes his first start for Arizona at Seattle against a defense tied for third in the league in takeaways. Both plays carry some variance, but the setups are favorable. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this slate.
Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 9
Blake Corum NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 50.5 Rushing Yards
Corum's workload has been steadily increasing, from five carries in Week 4 to nine, 17, and 11 in his last three games, and he has 75 carries for 389 yards at 5.2 yards per carry and a touchdown in four consecutive weeks. Last week's 73 yards on 11 carries included a 23-yard touchdown run, and since Week 5 he has more red-zone carries than Kyren Williams. With Matthew Stafford managing right elbow soreness, Davante Adams on injured reserve, and Puka Nacua questionable, the Rams figure to lean on the run. Washington ranks eighth in rush defense DVOA, but its front is short-handed with Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw out for the year, and the Rams are 4.5 to 5.5-point road favorites. He averages 48.6 yards per game and has gone over this number twice, so this is a bet on role and efficiency. Over 50.5 rushing yards looks like a fair play.
Gardner Minshew NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 0.5 Interceptions
Minshew makes his first start of the season against a Seattle defense with eight interceptions this year, the fourth-most in the NFL, that has allowed the fewest total yards per game in the league (250.0) and ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA. He was terrific in relief against Dallas, completing 17 of 23 passes for 188 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, but the last time he was a consistent starter, with the 2024 Raiders, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns (10 to nine) and he has not started since last December. Seattle's front ranks fourth in pressure rate, Arizona is an 8.5-point underdog, and the Cardinals' defense ranks 31st against the pass in DVOA, a combination that should put the ball in Minshew's hands against a defense that creates turnovers. Over 0.5 interceptions looks like a fair play.
Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Week 9 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Corum and Minshew as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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